WPR Articles May 5, 2014 - May 9, 2014

With Senate in Reach, GOP Foreign Policy Divisions Loom Large

By: Heather Hurlburt | Column

Will the GOP take back the Senate in the upcoming midterm elections, and if so, then what? On domestic policy, the answer to the “Then what?” question depends on whether the GOP’s presidential hopefuls want to run in 2016 on achievements, requiring cooperation with the White House, or on all-out opposition. Foreign policy is not going to follow either of those scripts, which will make things really interesting.

Austerity Had Uneven Effects on Europe’s Social Welfare Policies

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Portugal and other European nations have seen their social safety nets stretched following the eurozone crisis and years of austerity measures. In an email interview, Arne Heise, a professor of economics and director of the Center of Economic and Sociological Studies at Hamburg University, discussed the eurozone crisis’s impact on European social welfare policies.

Russia-India Afghan Arms Deal Comes With Regional Implications

By: Richard Weitz | Column

One of the effects of the Western military drawdown from Afghanistan has been to strengthen Russian-Indian security ties. Until now, their mutual engagement regarding Afghanistan was mostly diplomatic. But media reports have now emerged of a new arrangement in which India will buy weapons from Russia for delivery to the Afghan military and join with Russia to help restore Afghanistan’s own arms industry.

U.S. Military Learns COIN Lessons, but They Might Not Be Enough

By: Steven Metz | Column

Even while U.S. troops are still disengaging from combat in Afghanistan, the American military is hard at work distilling lessons from its long, costly counterinsurgency campaigns of the past decade. Two new counterinsurgency doctrine manuals provide a window into what lessons the military drew from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Yet both are also important for what they do not or cannot address.

Ukraine Crisis Exposes NATO, EU’s Lack of Strategic Clarity

By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column

No matter whether the crisis in Ukraine begins to de-escalate in the coming days, Vladimir Putin has demonstrated the hollowness of the West’s 21st century approach to Euro-Atlantic security. NATO and the EU have been unable to respond effectively because their assumptions about the nature of conflict and the burdens that members ought to bear to provide for the common defense have not been updated.

More Amid Ukraine Crisis, Sweden, Finland Face Increasing Pressure to Join NATO By: Magnus Nordenman | Briefing In the wake of the Ukraine crisis, Finland and Sweden are facing increasing pressure to join NATO as full members. While the NATO debate has been simmering in both countries for some time, both are now being encouraged to seriously consider membership by their Nordic and Baltic neighbors, as well as the United States. The Ukraine crisis appears to have exposed a real vulnerability on NATO’s northern flank. Canada’s Enduring Language Divide By: Jack Jedwab | Feature In the early 1960s, Canada’s Royal Commission on Bilingualism and Biculturalism warned that relations between English and French Canadians had so seriously deteriorated that their will to live together was in jeopardy. Underlying these concerns were fears about the future of the French language in the country. Some four decades following the introduction of Canda's policy of official languages, however, it would be difficult to contend there has been meaningful growth in the degree of bilingualism. China’s Language Policy Goes Global By: Arienne M. Dwyer | Feature Twenty years ago, the Chinese language was seen by most outside of China and Taiwan as obscure, possibly nearly unlearnable. Nowadays, however, Mandarin Chinese language instruction worldwide is experiencing huge growth. Meanwhile, Mandarin has also eclipsed all other varieties of Chinese as the premier language of China, even as ethnic-based flare-ups continue to persist in regions like Tibet and Xinjiang. In all of these cases, language identity and Chinese language policy is key to understanding events. Despite Efforts to Isolate It, North Korea Is No ‘Hermit Kingdom’ By: Leon V. Sigal | Briefing Against the backdrop of a threatened new nuclear test, North Korea is doing what it has long done to hedge against isolation: maintain and expand its network of partners. As it anticipates new sanctions and a cooling of relations with China, North Korea has just concluded new trade deals with Russia and Uganda and is continuing to boost trade with the rest of the world, despite U.N. sanctions and U.S. efforts. Peru’s Illegal Mining Metastasizes into Social and Political Problem By: The Editors | Trend Lines Last month, police in Peru destroyed $20 million worth of mining equipment as part of a wider crackdown on illegal mining in the country. In an email interview, Miguel Santillana, an expert on the mining industry at Instituto del Peru, discussed the Peruvian government’s response to illegal mining. Ukraine’s Ongoing Struggle With Its Russian Identity By: Nicolai N. Petro | Feature In Ukraine, language politics is so contentious that politicians will go to great lengths to deny that the issue even exists. Ukrainian politicians often say that the issue only comes up during elections, but the same politicians have also come to blows in parliament over the issue. To appreciate the deep-seated and unresolved concerns that lie at the heart of the language issue, we need to look at who actually uses which language, and the cultural and political agendas behind one’s choice of language. Defense Industry Sanctions Might Make Russia Double Down on Ukraine By: Eric Auner | Trend Lines The Obama administration will continue its policy of “steadily raising the economic costs” of Russia’s involvement in destabilizing Ukraine, including targeted sanctions on Russian entities and individuals. One target of more muscular sanctions will be the Russian defense industry. But while these sanctions may get Russia’s attention, they are unlikely to have a decisive effect on Russia’s defense industry itself. Elections Give Guinea-Bissau a Chance to Emerge From Turmoil By: Francisco Galamas | Briefing For the first time since a 2012 coup, Guinea-Bissau held elections on April 13, setting the stage for the country’s return to civilian rule. Fears of instability proved unfounded with the announcement that no major political force had disputed the results. Having seen unprecedentedly high electoral turnout, Guinea-Bissau now has an opportunity to change its political history of coups and instability. Immigrants to Mexico Find Improved Protections and Continuing Problems By: The Editors | Trend Lines Last month, Mexican troops rescued 60 migrants who were being held captive by criminals in northern Mexico. In an email interview, Laura Valeria González-Murphy, author of the recent book "Protecting Immigrant Rights in Mexico," explained Mexico’s evolving policy toward immigrants and migrants within its borders. Putting Environmental Crimes on the Defense and Security Agenda By: Johan Bergenas , Jillian Foerster | Briefing Environmental crimes, such as illegal fishing, logging and poaching, are no longer just a conservation and biodiversity problem. They have significant consequences for countries’ development aspirations, in addition to global security implications. With growing awareness of this dynamic, governments around the world are taking action. But they need to sharpen their approach to fighting environmental criminals. What’s Kept Nigeria From Finding the Missing Girls By: Frida Ghitis | Column More than three weeks have passed since the terrorist group Boko Haram kidnapped hundreds of girls from a school in Nigeria’s northeast. It took two weeks before international attention turned to the crisis, and even longer for the Nigerian government to sharpen its response. Among the many questions surrounding the attack, one of the most puzzling is why Nigeria failed to react effectively for so long. Japan’s Abe Pushes to Enhance Strategic Partnership With Europe By: Jonathan Berkshire Miller | Briefing Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe just finished a 10-day, six-country tour of Europe, focused on the possibility of a Japan-EU Economic Partnership Agreement, as well as shoring up strategic partnerships in the wake of the Ukraine crisis and as a hedge against China. The length and range of Abe’s trip to Europe demonstrate that Japan is looking to transcend its current engagement on the continent.