WPR Articles May 26, 2014 - May 30, 2014

After Ukraine, Limited Prospects for U.S.-Russian Security Cooperation

By: Richard Weitz | Column

I spent part of last week in Russia, giving a talk at the Moscow Carnegie Center on U.S.-Russia security cooperation after Ukraine, and attending a security conference organized by the Russian Defense Ministry. The difference between the two audiences was striking, and in the end, only a few opportunities for near-term cooperation were identified, most notably regarding Afghanistan and Iran’s nuclear program.

Venezuela’s Ideologically Diverse Opposition Faces Coordination Challenges

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Venezuela has faced months of opposition protests as international mediation efforts have proved inconclusive. In an email interview, Michael McCarthy, a professorial lecturer of Latin American politics at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, explained the diverse constituencies the opposition represents.
 

Factions in U.S., Iran Continue to Dispute Purpose of Talks

By: Eric Auner | Trend Lines

Representatives from the U.S.-led P5+1 countries and Iran met earlier this month for talks on Iran’s nuclear program that observers generally agree were inconclusive. As the parties prepare for the next round in Vienna June 16-20 and the July 20 deadline for a final agreement approaches, domestic forces in both the United States and Iran are trying to affect the goals and substance of a final agreement.

South Sudan Conflict Destabilizes Ethiopia’s Regional Strategy

By: Harry Verhoeven | Briefing

Once that of an impoverished, war-torn nation, Ethiopia’s international image is now exemplified by the construction of the Renaissance Dam, Africa’s biggest infrastructure project. Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn continues to pursue his predecessor’s dream of establishing Ethiopia as a regional hegemon through energy diplomacy. But South Sudan’s conflict and its regional dimensions now threaten this vision.

Kazakhstan a Model for Ukraine in Accommodating Russia

By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column

With chaos continuing in Ukraine, the country’s new president-elect, Petro Poroshenko, and his team might want to consider learning from how another mid-sized Eurasian state has managed its relationship with the Russian bear. This week, in a ceremony overshadowed by the events in Ukraine, Kazakhstan’s Nursultan Nazarbayev signed the agreements formally creating the Eurasian Economic Union with Russia.

More EU Migrants Caught Between Economic Crisis and Domestic Politics By: Nur Abdelkhaliq | Briefing Shortly after assuming power in May 2010, the U.K. government began setting caps on immigration levels, ultimately promising to reduce net migration into the U.K. to fewer than 100,000 people per year by the 2015 general election. The focus on immigration was unsurprising. But the overlooked and crucial question was how effective a cap on immigration could be given the European Union’s free movement provisions. Debate Over ‘Targeted Killings’ About More Than Just Terminology By: Matt Peterson | Trend Lines Last week’s confirmation process for David Barron, a former Obama administration lawyer nominated to the federal judiciary, reopened a debate about what has come to be known as the U.S. “targeted killing” program. Differing interpretations of the terminology at the heart of the debate speak to broader questions about the future of the American war on terror. Details of China-Russia Gas Deal Put ‘Historic’ Agreement in Perspective By: Thijs Van de Graaf | Briefing On May 21, after a decade of negotiations, Russia signed a gas deal with China. The $400 billion agreement foresees the delivery of 38 bcm of Siberian gas a year to China for 30 years. Commentators were quick to call the deal “historic,” and Putin trumpeted it as “the biggest contract in the history of the gas sector of the former USSR.” But a closer look at some of the details puts the agreement in perspective. Is America Losing the Capability to Fight a Major War? By: Steven Metz | Column Throughout history, Americans have expected and planned for short wars. Today is no exception: The U.S. military’s war games almost all plan for relatively short wars or operations. But while it would probably succeed against another third-rate military or transnational terrorist movement, it is not clear that America would or could undertake a length major war to reverse aggression by another great power. Egypt’s Passion Wanes for Its New President By: Frida Ghitis | Column A funny thing happened on the way to the apotheosis of Egypt’s next president: The adoring crowds stayed home. The former military leader, Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, was supposed to win a landslide victory with support from a public that had given every indication of burning with passion for him. But el-Sissi’s coronation appears less enthusiastic than he had hoped, and that will have implications for his rule. India’s Modi Takes a Step Toward New Era of Relations With Pakistan By: Rupakjyoti Borah | Briefing Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi scored his first diplomatic coup by receiving Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif at his swearing-in ceremony Monday. The fact that Sharif came shows his willingness to stand up to Pakistan’s hard-liners in an effort to normalize relations with India. For his part, Modi may be better positioned than his predecessor to work toward a new era of India-Pakistan relations.