Could Tensions in the South China Sea Spark a War?
05/31/14
Abraham M. Denmark
Security, Asia
And by the way...Washington could get dragged in.
In
the South China Sea, China’s ambitious “nine-dash line” claim of
sovereignty has been disputed by several other claimants, relations have
in recent weeks turned remarkably chillier. Vietnam and the Philippines
are facing the brunt of Beijing’s ire, and the potential for crisis and
conflict is significant. Positions are hardening, willingness to
compromise is low, and the fact that the Philippines is an ally of the
United States raises the potential for a disastrous crisis and potential
conflict between the U.S. and China.
The
clash between China and Vietnam has attracted more attention in recent
days. Just a few days after President Obama’s visit to the region, a Chinese mobile oil rig took position in a carefully selected site
that, while closer to the Vietnam mainland than China’s Hainan Island,
is just fourteen nautical miles from Chinese-occupied island, a part of
the Paracel Island group that is claimed by both China and Vietnam.
China sent a large flotilla of ships to escort the derrick; a group that
included several armed Naval vessels. After Hanoi expressed outrage at
this action and violence against Chinese nationals across Vietnam,
Beijing expanded the escort flotilla to over 100 ships. Most recently,
Chinese ships interdicted, rammed, and sunk a Vietnamese fishing vessel
that was challenging the derrick. Vietnam claims that four ships were
attacked in all, and now there are reportedly 113 ships standing off
against sixty Vietnamese vessels.
Similar
incidents have played out in recent months between China and the
Philippines. After China took effective control over the Scarborough
Shoal in 2012, Beijing seemed to set its sights on the Second Thomas
Shoal—a small land formation about 105 nautical miles from the
Philippines but is claimed by both countries. To buttress its claim, the
Philippines in 1999 intentionally beached the hospital ship Sierra Madre
on the reef and has maintained a small crew on the beached craft ever
since (see an exceptional piece about the sailors on the ship and the
broader dispute by the New York Times here).
Most recently, the Philippines arrested a group of Chinese fishermen
found 70 miles from the Philippines near Half Moon Shoal with a ship
filled with endangered (and valuable) turtles.
Read full articlehttp://nationalinterest.org/feature/could-tensions-the-south-china-sea-spark-war-10572
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