WPR Articles May 19, 2014 - May 23, 2014

What Comes Next in U.S. Counterterrorism Approach?

By: Heather Hurlburt | Column

A year ago this week, President Barack Obama spoke at the National Defense University, where he laid out a vision for how the United States would—slowly—move away from the paradigm of war in confronting the threat posed by terrorism. Every war America has fought, Obama reminded us, has come to an end. So must the war footing, if not the struggle, against global terrorism. What’s happened since then?

With Solis, Costa Ricans Signal Readiness for Change

By: Christine Wade | Briefing

On May 9, Guillermo Solis became Costa Rica’s 47th president. Solis succeeds Laura Chinchilla, who departed office with the lowest presidential approval rating in the hemisphere, and whose term was marked by corruption scandals, tensions with Nicaragua and a growing deficit. How Solis will manage Costa Rica’s mounting difficulties remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: Costa Ricans are ready for change.

‘Just Enough’ Military Could Limit Future Presidents’ Options

By: Steven Metz | Column

Policymakers are making choices now that will determine the size and capability of the future U.S. military. Pentagon leaders normally prioritize capabilities by projecting what a future president might expect the military to do. But now they must also consider the policy options that could be taken off the table as a result of these choices. Thinking this way can lead to some different—and grim—conclusions.

Israel’s Anti-Corruption Fight Largely Depends on the Judiciary

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Last week former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert was sentenced to six years in jail for corruption. In an email interview, Udi Sommer, assistant professor of political science at Tel Aviv University, discussed the state of corruption in Israel.

For Europe’s Far Right, Divisions Likely to Hamper Crisis-Driven Support

By: Myriam Benraad | Briefing

Of the 380 million eligible voters in the European Union, very few will actually bother to cast ballots in the May 22-25 European parliamentary elections, according to recent polls. Facilitated by the present climate of crisis, right-wing parties, which number approximately 60 across Europe, continue to surge, raising concerns about their weight in the next parliament. What exactly are their chances of success?

More With Low-Profile Engagement in Myanmar, U.S. Could Contribute to Kachin Peace By: Sudha Ramachandran | Briefing Kachin leaders are intensifying calls for U.S. involvement in talks between Myanmar’s government and the Kachin Independence Organization, with the KIO’s chief negotiator raising the possibility of the U.S. playing a more active role in resolving the decades-old Kachin conflict. While the KIO is betting that the U.S. could make a valuable contribution to peace, China and Myanmar’s government aren’t so sure.   Increased Military Transparency Lifts Veil on U.S.-China Tensions By: Richard Weitz | Column Last week’s visit of Gen. Fang Fenghui to the U.S. was the latest in a series of high-level exchanges between the U.S. and Chinese militaries. One consequence of this increased transparency is to make more evident the differences between the two countries’ defense establishments. Whereas in the past the Chinese would tend to downplay diverging views, now they don’t hesitate to frankly address differences. Japan's Complicated Regional Dance By: Benjamin Self | Feature For decades Japan has patiently fostered maturity and order in its relationships with its neighbors, expecting that time and deepening interdependence would yield behavior constrained by a set of mutually agreed rules. The past couple of years have been, instead, a period of growing frustration. Japan’s reluctant embrace of realism has reshaped Japanese security policy. Yet Tokyo remains fundamentally oriented toward a decorous and polite style in its relations with China and South Korea. South Korea Struggles With the Asian Paradox By: Scott Snyder | Feature The dynamics of triangular interaction among South Korea, Japan and China have constituted a central security paradox in Northeast Asia since the late 19th century, with South Korea cursed by its geographical position at the conflux of great power interests in the region. But the aftereffects of Cold War rivalry have served both to obscure Sino-Japanese tensions over the Korean Peninsula, and to spur periodic trilateral and multilateral cooperation aimed at resolving the regional Cold War hangover. Space Cooperation Latest Battleground in U.S.-Russia Showdown By: Eric Auner | Trend Lines As the diplomatic showdown between the U.S. and Russia drags on, both are seeking ways to exert leverage and impose costs on each other. This is having consequences for areas of longer-term cooperation. Dmitry Rogozin, Russia’s deputy prime minister in charge of Russia’s space program as well as its defense industry, announced new limits on space cooperation with the U.S. at a press conference last week. The Contrasting Trajectories of China's East Asia Policy By: Tiffany Ma | Feature Nowhere else in Asia is the region’s tectonic realignment more evident than in the China-Japan-South Korea triangle. China is emerging as a new center of geopolitical gravity within the region; South Korea is rising as an influential middle power; and Japan is experiencing relative decline. The three sets of bilateral relationships are branching in different directions, with China’s strategic approach to the other two driven by historical grievances, economic interdependence and geostrategic dynamics. China’s Opacity Inhibits Its Counterterrorism Efforts By: Maria Savel | Trend Lines A recent wave of violence in China attributed to members of the Uighur ethnic group, including a knife attack at the Kunming railway station in March that left 29 dead and an explosion at the Urumqi railway station in late April that killed 3, has brought international attention to China’s domestic security policies. Russia’s Tight Embrace Undermines Armenia’s Independence By: Michael Cecire | Briefing Armenia recently appeared poised to take its first substantial step in years toward European integration. But then Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan announced he was suspending plans to sign an EU association agreement and would instead join the Russian-led Customs Union and Eurasian Union projects. The move was less a sudden change of heart than a reflection of Russia’s overwhelming influence over the country. For India, Russia, Diversifying Energy Ties a Natural Fit By: Saurav Jha | Briefing Russia and India are reportedly considering a $30 billion oil pipeline that would transit through China’s Xinjiang province. The discussions, when seen in the context of other bilateral hydrocarbon initiatives between India and Russia, show that Russia is cultivating India in addition to China as part of its accelerated move away from dependence on European markets amid the ongoing Ukraine crisis. India-Israel Ties Set to Blossom Under Modi By: Frida Ghitis | Column The electoral earthquake that just shook up India is stirring up great excitement in Israel, where Indian voters’ dramatic move to sweep away the ruling Congress Party and bring to power the opposition is making outsized headlines. By all indications, the victory of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party and its leader, Narendra Modi, is about to rapidly expand ties between Israel and India. India’s Modi Gets Short Shrift From Obama’s Agenda By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column In the aftermath of the Indian elections, President Barack Obama expressed his desire for rejuvenating the U.S.-India relationship, which is still seen as a linchpin for America’s rebalance to Asia. But at present Obama is not scheduled to meet with India’s new prime minister, Narendra Modi, until a pair of summits at the end of this year. And those meetings will likely be too brief to make serious progress.