WPR Articles June 16, 2014 - June 20, 2014

Peru Sends Mixed Signals on Drug Policy

By: Coletta A. Youngers | Briefing

In a surprise move in late May, Peruvian President Ollanta Humala fired Peru’s top drug official and backed away from a controversial coca eradication program that had faced strong local opposition. The government is sending mixed messages, however, regarding how these actions will impact Peru’s broader drug control strategy and its traditional strong resistance to regional efforts toward drug policy reform.

With Recent Attacks, the IMU Seeks to Raise Its Profile in Pakistan

By: Kathy Gilsinan | Trend Lines

Two separate terrorist attacks rocked the international airport in Pakistan’s biggest city, Karachi, last week, killing dozens. On Sunday, the Pakistani military launched a long-delayed ground assault into its tribal regions in an effort to root out the militants that Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif now calls a threat to “the sovereignty of the motherland.”
 

United Front on North Korea Dissipates, Jeopardizing Further Six-Party Talks

By: Scott Snyder | Briefing

As China steps up shuttle diplomacy with the aim of resuming Six-Party Talks on the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, North Korea has opened up more active bilateral dialogue with Japan and Russia, easing its diplomatic isolation. This development is more likely to yield fragmentation among the parties than to forge the united front thought necessary to draw North Korea back into negotiations.

Santos’ Re-election No Guarantee for Colombia Peace

By: Eric Farnsworth | Briefing

Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos' re-election is being described as a referendum on his government’s peace negotiations with the FARC. With this in mind, some observers have begun to look ahead toward implementation of the peace accords. But that’s not necessarily the actual message of the election, in terms of either the peace talks or the rest of the Colombia’s domestic and international agenda.

Time for Plan B on Obama’s Triple Containment of Russia, China, Iran

By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column

When the Obama administration took control of U.S. foreign policy in 2009, it undertook to mitigate what it considered the damage wrought by the Bush team. A deft wielding of diplomacy would end the standoff with Iran, reset relations with Russia and bring China into a dialogue to solve global problems. Things did not go according to this plan, and it is past time to move to a “Plan B” for U.S. foreign policy.

More In Iraq, Americans Must Confront Complexities, not Cliches By: Heather Hurlburt | Column Thus far, Americans have had one of two reactions to the rapid advance of ISIS through Iraq toward Baghdad: Either, “Why aren’t we intervening already?”; or, “The problem came from invading in the first place. Intervening now will only make things worse.” Many of the labels being used to describe the situation are woefully misleading, though, and serve to obscure a confusing and complex web of relationships. Getting From Insurgency to Politics By: Johanna Söderström | Feature A large part of ending civil wars and insurgencies is about finding new political solutions to old political conflicts. One such political solution and instrument has at times been to convert armed groups into political parties. Convincing former warring parties to enter formalized democratic politics is not an easy task however, and even when armed groups transform into political parties, it is only one facet of a larger question about political integration of various entities after war. Learning From Iraq to Prepare for Afghanistan’s Post-2016 Future By: Richard Weitz | Column In a revealing quirk of history, the crisis in Iraq caused by the sudden onslaught of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) can help us better understand possible scenarios for Afghanistan moving forward. Despite their many differences, both countries are exposing the consequences of America’s decreased leverage combined with the rising but often mutually competing influence of other powers. Next-Generation Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration By: Robert Muggah | Feature The notion of disarming, then disbanding and rehabilitating former fighters in the aftermath of conflict is as old as war itself, but recently the concept has assumed a kind of orthodoxy in the peace, security and development community. Since the late 1980s, disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) programs have subtly changed in line with the evolution of wider peace, security and development agendas, with a third generation of DDR now in the ascendant. third generation of DDR appears to be in the ascendant. With Eye on Oil, China Raises Security Profile in South Sudan By: Martha Molfetas | Briefing China has agreed to deploy additional peacekeepers to South Sudan, significantly raising its security profile there. With the failure of two cease-fires in South Sudan’s six-month-long conflict, China has committed a brigade of 850 soldiers to the U.N. peacekeeping mission, bringing the force’s total deployment to roughly 20,000. The move reinforces a shift for China, from noninvolvement toward forging peace. Collapse of U.S.-Trained Iraqi Army Raises Questions About Afghanistan By: Eric Auner | Trend Lines As the world watches Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) forces seizing territory, and weapons, from fleeing national forces in a post-America Iraq, the looming question is whether Afghan security forces, too, could dissolve in the face of a similar onslaught, leaving their U.S.-supplied weapons for insurgents. For U.S., a Window of Opportunity to Salvage Interests in Iraq By: Steven Metz | Column Iraq's implosion has reignited the "blame game" in the U.S. But the argument that leaving some U.S. military forces in Iraq after 2011 could have prevented the current crisis was weak from the beginning. In any case, it is more important to consider what the U.S. should do next rather than what it should have been done years ago. For a fleeting moment, Washington once again has leverage if it chooses to use it. Obama Faces Daunting Choices on Iraq By: Frida Ghitis | Column When ISIS launched its blitzkrieg assault on Iraq, it suddenly put the entire country in play, threatening its very existence. The rapid territorial gains by the ultra-extremist Sunni militant group put enormous pressure on the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. But it is not only Maliki who faces difficult and urgent choices. The Iraqi crisis is also a pressing challenge for Barack Obama. Pakistan Media War a Loss for Both Geo and ISI By: Shehzad H. Qazi | Briefing Two months ago gunmen launched a brazen attack on Hamid Mir, one of Pakistan’s most famous journalists, riddling his car with bullets. Mir survived the assassination attempt, but soon plunged into a storm of controversy after he accused the Pakistani military of the crime. The ongoing clash between Mir’s employer, Geo, and the military has become a landmark event, with implications for Pakistan’s democracy.