WPR Articles June 23, 2014 - June 27, 2014

Supreme Court’s Argentina Debt Ruling Will Reverberate in Emerging Markets

By: Daniel McDowell | Briefing

The U.S. Supreme Court is no stranger to setting legal precedents that reverberate for generations, though those rulings often have little impact outside the U.S. With its ruling last Monday that Argentina must pay $1.3 billion to a group of persistent creditors, however, the high court has potentially delivered a blow to emerging market economies, and might have changed the face of international finance.

Battle Over European Commission Presidency Leaves U.K.’s Cameron Isolated

By: Maria Savel | Trend Lines

The race for European Commission president got a bit more interesting over the weekend as leaders from Europe’s left, including French President Francois Hollande and Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, reportedly backed Jean-Claude Juncker’s candidacy, setting up a showdown with U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron, who opposes Juncker.

What Lessons Will the U.S. Military Learn From Iraq’s Collapse?

By: Steven Metz | Column

As extremists from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria march on Baghdad and much of the Iraqi army runs away, American military veterans have been struggling to understand why the government and military that they worked so hard to create in Iraq has failed so miserably. This is more than simply soul searching: The outcome of this debate could have far-reaching implications for the future U.S. military.

Turkey Hostage Crisis Could Limit U.S. Options in Iraq

By: Eric Auner | Trend Lines

The fall of Mosul to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) suddenly put Iraq back on the top of the U.S. foreign policy agenda. Although stories of fleeing Iraqi troops got most of the attention in U.S. media, the hostage-taking of 49 Turkish citizens from the Turkish consulate in Mosul as well as 31 other Turks from elsewhere in northern Iraq, could limit U.S. options in responding to the growing chaos in Iraq.

South Africa’s Zuma, ANC Must Deliver on ‘Transformation’

By: James Hamill | Briefing

In his inaugural address, South African President Jacob Zuma identified “rapid economic transformation” and “inclusive growth” as the policy centerpieces of his second term in office. This emphasis on transformation reflects an underlying unease within the ruling ANC and represents a tacit recognition that Zuma’s first term was largely squandered due to scandals, managerial incompetence and party strife.

More Race to Succeed Ban at U.N. Heats Up By: Richard Gowan | Column The race to succeed Ban Ki-moon as secretary-general of the United Nations is heating up. More or less open candidates are emerging with growing frequency. This may seem premature: Ban will not leave office until the end of 2016, and he has a lot of unfinished business to attend to. But if Ban seems intent on going out with a bang, U.N. officials and diplomats are already speculating about his successor. As ISIS Chaos Grows, Iraqi Kurds Must Not Overplay Their Hand By: Hannes Cerny | Briefing With insurgents from the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria advancing on Baghdad, Iraq finds itself in the worst political and military crisis since the height of the civil war in 2006-2007; its very survival as a state is in doubt. Iraqi Kurds appear to have gained the most from the anarchy, but they must proceed with caution. Kurdish plans for greater autonomy would suffer if the Iraqi state fell apart altogether. Despite Softer Rhetoric, Iran Foreign Policy Shows Little Change By: Richard Weitz | Column One of the major issues affecting U.S. deliberations over whether to accept a nuclear deal with Iran or to cooperate with Tehran in Iraq is the question of how much Iranian foreign policy has changed under President Hassan Rouhani. In fact, a survey of Iranian foreign policy during the past year shows major improvements in only a few areas, with a harder line on other issues and broad continuity in most cases. Lebanon’s Presidential Crisis Hangs on Saudi, Iranian Rivalry By: Bilal Y. Saab | Briefing Lebanon’s presidential crisis has local dimensions, but the root causes of the void are external. They are linked to the regional power struggle between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the main outside backers, respectively, of the Shiite Hezbollah and its rival, the Sunni Future Movement. So long as Tehran and Riyadh disagree over who should occupy the presidential palace, Lebanon will be without a head of state. Spain’s Exclaves Prove to Be Security Boon as Well as Risk By: The Editors | Leading Indicators Spanish police have recently begun to crack down on Islamist militants in its exclaves Ceuta and Melilla in North Africa. In an email interview, Gerry O’Reilly, senior lecturer in geography and international affairs at St Patrick’s College, Dublin City University, discussed Spanish policy toward both autonomous territories. Kidnapping of Israeli Teens Could Scuttle Hamas-Fatah Deal By: Frida Ghitis | Column The abduction of three Israeli teenagers has reawakened enmity between Hamas and Fatah, dormant since a recent reconciliation deal that produced a unity government and called for Palestinian elections to be held within six months thereafter. But the process is now suspended and may come apart. If the kidnapping was carried out by Hamas, it may just turn out to be a milestone mistake for the organization. The Party and the Army: Civil-Military Relations in Cuba By: William M. LeoGrande | Briefing When Raul Castro became president of Cuba in 2008, he replaced most of Fidel's cabinet with ministers of his own choosing, many of them from the armed forces, prompting speculation about a military "takeover" of the Cuban government. But to regard this circulation of elites as breaching some clear divide between civilian and military roles is to misunderstand the nature of civil-military relations in Cuba. Iraq’s Refugee Situation Shows Signs of History Repeating By: The Editors | Trend Lines Last week, following the capture of Mosul by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the United Nations raised the crisis in Iraq to a level three humanitarian disaster—its highest designation—with over 1.5 million displaced people. In an email interview, David Romano, associate professor of political science at Missouri State University, discussed the refugee situation in Iraq. Russia’s Energy Ambitions Explain Putin’s Zigzags on Ukraine By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column How to explain Vladimir Putin’s zigzags on Ukraine? Putin’s long-term goal is to prevent Ukraine’s integration into the Euro-Atlantic world. In the short term, however, there is a lodestone that accounts for the shifts in Russia’s Ukraine policy: completing Russia’s emergence as the world’s energy superpower. This involves accomplishing two major projects: the South Stream pipeline and the opening of the Arctic.