IRAN: AN EXPLOSION AND CONTINUING PROTESTS

Stratfor
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IRAN: AN EXPLOSION AND CONTINUING PROTESTS



A bomb blast near the mausoleum of Islamic Republic of Iran founder Ayatollah
Ruhollah Khomeini, located in southern Tehran, has left one person dead and at
least two others wounded June 20. It is not clear who was behind the blast but
the authorities will use this incident to engage in a wider crackdown to quell
the ongoing protests in Tehran and strengthen their claims that the unrest in
the country is part of a Western-backed plan to topple the Islamic republic.

The shrine is a sensitive target, and an explosion there gives the government
means to characterize the protesters as not simply angry citizens opposed to the
election's outcome but as complete renegades. It is also interesting that the
blast comes a day after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei gave a rare Friday
prayer sermon, in which he said, "Street demonstrations are a target for
terrorist plots. Who would be responsible if something happened?" This statement
and the fact that the original reports of the blast came from state media make
the explosion a suspicious development which may have been engineered by the
security establishment, but there is no way to confirm this.

Meanwhile, security forces -- now under the command of the country's elite
ideological military force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps -- fired into
the air and used tear gas and water cannons to contain protesters gathered in
Revolution Square. While the number of demonstrators remains unclear, protests
appear to be taking place even though authorities refused to permit rallies --
as per the orders of Khamenei, who warned in his prayer sermon the previous day
that protests will not be tolerated.

There are unconfirmed reports that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's main
challenger, former prime minister Mir Hossein Mousavi, is leading the protests.
However, it is not clear that either Mousavi or former parliamentary speaker
Mehdi Karroubi is leading the protests. Earlier, neither Mousavi and Karroubi
attended the Guardians Council meeting designed to discuss the issue of
electoral fraud with the defeated candidates, which indicates that they are
unlikely to accept the supreme leader's verdict. Press TV reported earlier that
authorities warned Mousavi June 20 that he will be held responsible for any
violence in the country.

At this stage the protesters do not seem to be out in large numbers, but this
situation could change quickly.

Copyright 2009 Stratfor.