Experts Debate Effect of Iranian Protests on Nuclear Policy

Experts Debate Effect of Iranian Protests on Nuclear Policy
Tuesday, June 23, 2009



U.S. officials and experts disagreed on whether the large-scale protests ripping through Iran could encourage the nation to negotiate a halt to its disputed nuclear activities, the Washington Times reported today (see GSN, June 22).

(Jun. 23) - Supporters of former Iranian presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi ignite barricades on a street in Tehran on Saturday. U.S. experts disagreed over whether the ongoing demonstrations were likely to affect Iranian nuclear policies (Getty Images).

The Obama administration yesterday defended its cautious tone on the Iranian demonstrations that followed President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's disputed re-election on June 12.

"Our long-term security interests haven't changed," White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said. "Our interests, as it relates to our grave concern about the help that's provided to terrorists, the grave concern that we have about the pursuit of a nuclear weapon, remain unchanged." U.S. efforts to engage Iran diplomatically are not "on hold," the State Department added.

Since taking office in 2005, Ahmadinejad has shown little interest in halting his nation's uranium enrichment program in exchange for political and economic benefits from the West. The United States and its allies suspect the enrichment effort is geared toward generating nuclear-weapon material, but Tehran has insisted the program would only produce nuclear power plant fuel.

"The [Iranian] government's domestic political capital has been seriously eroded" by the recent protests, one high-level Obama administration official said. "That may lead to willingness on their part to engage more."

Independent analysts expressed doubts, however.

"I can understand the argument intellectually, but it seems very unlikely," said Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert with the Brookings Institution. "When push comes to shove, it's not going to be that easy for us or for them" to break the nuclear stalemate.

U.S. President Barack Obama's administration "wants the best out of the situation, but I'm not sure they will get it," added Trita Parsi, head of the National Iranian American Council.

Iran has not responded to an Italian invitation to meet this week with high-level officials from the United States and other members of the Group of Eight industrialized nations.

"With three days to go, I still do not have a reply. I must consider that Iran has declined the invitation," said Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini. "Iran has lost an opportunity by not participating in the conference" (Nicholas Kralev, Washington Times, June 23).

Russia, though, expressed optimism that Iran would soon agree to enter nuclear talks with the five permanent U.N. Security Council member states and Germany, Interfax reported yesterday.

"There are all the necessary conditions today to launch a negotiating process with Iranians" based on the six powers' offer of nuclear cooperation benefits, a Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman said. He added that the powers were still willing to halt moves toward new sanctions if Iran suspended the expansion of its nuclear program while the sides negotiated an agenda for future talks.

"We hope that Tehran's recent statements regarding its readiness to cooperate with the sextet will turn into practical steps, and Iran will take advantage of the existing opportunities and will give a concrete response to the sextet's proposal on talks without any further delays," he said.

"When trust in the peaceful nature of the Iranian nuclear program is restored, it will be treated as similar programs of any other non-nuclear member of the [Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty]," the spokesman added (Interfax, June 22).

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was set to begin a tour of European nations today in an effort drum up support for new economic penalties against Iran, Agence France-Presse reported.

Netanyahu is expected to meet in Rome with Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and then travel to Paris for talks with French President Nicolas Sarkozy and U.S. envoy George Mitchell.

"Above all, the prime minister is planning to bring up the Iranian dossier," a high-level Israeli official said. "With what is happening now in Iran, words and condemnations are not enough, the world must decide to take much harder measures to prevent the Iranian regime from acquiring nuclear arms" (Jean-Luc Renaudie, Agence France-Presse I/Google News, June 22).

Jerusalem and Tehran might be able to co-exist peacefully if Iran had new leadership, the Israeli leader yesterday told the German newspaper Biild.

"If the people were free to decide, then I have no doubt there would be a different government," he said, according to the Associated Press. "This is a theocratic, totalitarian and brutal state."

Israeli wants an Iranian government that does not seek nuclear weapons or support international terrorism, Netanyahu said (Associated Press/Taiwan News, June 22).

Meanwhile, the son of deposed Iranian monarch Mohammad Reza Pahlavi warned that Iran might eventually trigger a nuclear war if its government suppressed the election demonstrators, AFP reported.

"Their defeat will encourage extremism from the shores of the Levant to the energy jugular of the world," Reza Pahlavi said in Washington. "At worst, fanatical tyrants who know that the future is against them may end their present course on their terms: a nuclear holocaust" (Agence France-Presse II/Google News, June 22).

http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20090623_9634.php