How Islamic State Victories Shape the Syrian Civil War

Forecast:

The Islamic State will prioritize the defense of its core supply lines, used to provide equipment and much-needed recruits.

The Islamic State will continue to demonstrate considerable flexibility in its offensive operations.

The Syrian government and rebel forces will have to increasingly devote their attention and resources to fighting the Islamic State, rather than prioritizing battles with each other.

In a display of considerable flexibility on the battlefield, the Islamic State managed to take rebel forces in northern Aleppo by surprise with a large-scale offensive aimed at securing more territory along the Syria-Turkey border. After drawing down its forces in the area, the Islamic State's sudden tactical shift resulted in considerable initial gains against the rebels. Islamic State fighters seized Sawran and are advancing near Mare. But thanks to reinforcements from Aleppo city and other provinces, Syrian rebel forces have already begun to mount powerful counterattacks against the Islamic State. For now, the outcome of the battle hangs in the balance as both sides move to bolster their ranks.

 
The Battle for Aleppo

The Islamic State's advance in northern Aleppo is likely driven by its growing concern over its supply lines running through Turkey, which provide the vast majority of the group's foreign recruits. Over the past year, offensives by the Free Syrian Army and Kurdish People's Protection Units have steadily eroded the Islamic State's control over border posts and towns on the Turkey-Syria border. Over the past week ...

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