The Jihadist Trap of Here and Now

By Scott Stewart

In recent weeks, I have found myself spending a lot of time thinking about the jihadist strategy of al Qaeda and how it compares to that of the Islamic State. Earlier this month I wrote about the possibility that the al Qaeda brand of jihadism could outlast that of the Islamic State. Last week I wrote about how ideologies are harder to kill than individuals, focusing on the impact that the death of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula leader Nasir al-Wahayshi will have on that group and the wider global jihadist movement.
 
But beyond the impact of leaders like al-Wahayshi, there are other facets of strategy that will influence the war for the soul of jihadism. Specifically, I am talking about time and place. Both al Qaeda and the Islamic State seek to establish a global caliphate, but both differ quite starkly in how to accomplish this task and how soon it can be achieved.

Al Qaeda argues that the caliphate can only be established after the United States and its European allies have been defeated, to the extent that they can no longer interfere in Muslim lands — either because of a lack of ability or a lack of desire. The organization pursues a long war approach that emphasizes the need to attack the United States, "the far enemy," before turning the group's efforts against overthrowing local governments. The Islamic State takes the opposite tack. It has adopted a more urgent "why wait?" approach and concentrates the group's efforts to immediately take, hold and govern territory. This strategy banks on being able to ...

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