This is a terrible idea for fixing Iraq, and Washington loves it
Updated by Max Fisher on June 22, 2015This is an idea that has been growing in popularity within the US government — in both parties, in Congress and in the Obama administration, in multiple agencies. It is attractive because it promises a relatively easy solution to a terrible problem. But it is a false promise. Partition would entrench Iraq's problems rather than solve them.
"There will not be a single state of Iraq"
Carter's statement was prompted by a question from Rep. Adam Smith, the ranking Democrat of the House Armed Services Committee, who in the course of asking how the US could respond to the chaos in Syria and Iraq, said, "Iraq is fractured. You can make a pretty powerful argument, in fact, that Iraq is no more.""The question [is] what if a multisectarian Iraq turns out not to be possible," Carter responded, referring to the idea of Iraq as it presently exists, a state that encompasses Kurds, Arab Sunnis, and Arab Shias. "If that government can't do what it's supposed to do, then we will still try to enable local ground forces, if they're willing to partner with us, to keep stability in Iraq, but there will not be a single state of Iraq."
What Carter is suggesting is both radically new and not new at all. Never before has a senior administration official suggested this could be policy. But the idea of splitting Iraq into separate states has been floating around since the first disastrous years of the Iraq War, when then–Senator Joe Biden proposed a less extreme version: dividing it into three semi-autonomous regions. At the time, Biden was widely mocked for the idea. Eventually, the US-led forces joined with local militias and others to restore order and handed over Iraq to a powerful central government. It looked like Iraq would continue as a state.
But Iraq fell apart pretty quickly after the US-led occupation forces left. That may have been inevitable: The chaos and violence of the war's initial phase had forced many Iraqis to default to sectarian identities, to see themselves in a zero-sum contest with other sectarian groups and act accordingly. Iraq's early governments, led by openly sectarian Shia strongmen, made this worse.
The idea of a unified Iraq now looks far less certain. The predominantly Kurdish region is de facto autonomous. Much of the predominantly Sunni Arab region is dominated by ISIS. The predominantly Shia Arab region, which is home to the central government in the more-diverse Baghdad, is struggling to defeat ISIS and reunify the country. But that might be hopeless, as Sunnis may never submit to Baghdad's rule again, and Kurds probably just don't have to.
Carter is merely giving voice to what a lot of administration officials, members of Congress, and analysts have been saying for a while: The Iraqi state is so broken that it can never be put back together again, and we're better off recognizing that fact and maybe even helping to make it happen.
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