CFR Update 6/22 Militants Attack Afghan Parliament

TOP OF THE AGENDA Militants Attack Afghan Parliament Militants attacked (WaPo) Afghanistan's parliament in Kabul Monday, detonating suicide bombs as gunmen stormed the building. Five people have been confirmed dead (Al Jazeera), in addition to the seven attackers, with another twenty-one injured. The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack. The raid comes as lawmakers were set to vote (TOLO) on the nominee for minister of defense. Meanwhile, Taliban fighters seized (RFE/RL) a second district in northern Kunduz province, according to reports by local security forces. The Taliban has launched offensives across Afghanistan in recent weeks, making inroads in Kunduz and carrying out attacks in southern Helmand province.

ANALYSIS  "The Taliban are clearly pursuing a nationalist agenda, in addition to a religious one. 'Afghanistan belongs to the Afghans' is their motto, perhaps even including the Pashtun areas beyond the border to Pakistan. And the Taliban have come under increasing pressure in this regard. They are now facing competition from IS in Afghanistan who now threaten to cut the ground under the Taliban's feet with their seductive ideology of a global jihad," writes Florian Weigand in Deutsche Welle. "Whether the Taliban's aim to escalate violence and attempt to make inroads into new territories in northern and western Afghanistan are part of political posturing or part of rifts between internal peaceniks and rebellious commanders, remains an open question, but what worries the Afghan population more than any other factor, is that the NUG—despite initiatives by Abdullah's side—has yet to develop a joint strategy on how to deal with war and peace issues, as well as other key national priorities in a coherent fashion," writes Omar Samad in Al Jazeera. "Without U.S. pressure on all players, negotiations may never happen, and a full-blown civil war may become inevitable. In that event, extremism would grow: there is little evidence that the Taliban would unilaterally break from al Qaeda or be able to stop al Qaeda or the Islamic State from operating in Afghanistan. And if Iraq is any lesson, even total withdrawal may not prevent the United States from being sucked right back into the morass," write James Dobbins and Carter Malkasian in Foreign Affairs.