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Friday, June 27, 2014
Iraq Is Spending $1 Billion To Build a New Parliament
Iraq Is Spending $1 Billion To Build a New Parliament // Michael Silverberg
Take a look at the plans for a new parliamentary building in Baghdad, designed by the well-known London-based, Iraqi-born architect Zaha Hadid. By Michael Siverberg http://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2014/06/iraq-spending-1-billion-build-new-parliament/87379/?oref=defenseone_today_nlThree Misconceptions About Drones // Janine Davidson
Three Misconceptions About Drones // Janine Davidson
A new report by the Stimson Center's Task Force on U.S. Drone Policy examines some common beliefs about drones. By Janine Davidson http://www.defenseone.com/technology/2014/06/three-misconceptions-about-drones/87373/?oref=defenseone_today_nlBeware the Salesmen of Simple Solutions on Iraq
Summary
The passage above is a spoof written by the political comedian Andy Borowitz.
WPR Articles June 23, 2014 - June 27, 2014
WPR Articles June 23, 2014 - June 27, 2014
Supreme Court’s Argentina Debt Ruling Will Reverberate in Emerging Markets
By: Daniel McDowell | Briefing
The U.S. Supreme Court is no stranger to
setting legal precedents that reverberate for generations, though those
rulings often have little impact outside the U.S. With its ruling last
Monday that Argentina must pay $1.3 billion to a group of persistent
creditors, however, the high court has potentially delivered a blow to
emerging market economies, and might have changed the face of
international finance.
Battle Over European Commission Presidency Leaves U.K.’s Cameron Isolated
By: Maria Savel | Trend Lines
The race for European Commission president
got a bit more interesting over the weekend as leaders from Europe’s
left, including French President Francois Hollande and Italian Prime
Minister Matteo Renzi, reportedly backed Jean-Claude Juncker’s
candidacy, setting up a showdown with U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron,
who opposes Juncker.
What Lessons Will the U.S. Military Learn From Iraq’s Collapse?
By: Steven Metz | Column
As extremists from the Islamic State of
Iraq and Syria march on Baghdad and much of the Iraqi army runs away,
American military veterans have been struggling to understand why the
government and military that they worked so hard to create in Iraq has
failed so miserably. This is more than simply soul searching: The
outcome of this debate could have far-reaching implications for the
future U.S. military.
Turkey Hostage Crisis Could Limit U.S. Options in Iraq
By: Eric Auner | Trend Lines
The fall of Mosul to the Islamic State of
Iraq and Syria (ISIS) suddenly put Iraq back on the top of the U.S.
foreign policy agenda. Although stories of fleeing Iraqi troops got most
of the attention in U.S. media, the hostage-taking of 49 Turkish
citizens from the Turkish consulate in Mosul as well as 31 other Turks
from elsewhere in northern Iraq, could limit U.S. options in responding
to the growing chaos in Iraq.
South Africa’s Zuma, ANC Must Deliver on ‘Transformation’
By: James Hamill | Briefing
In his inaugural address, South African
President Jacob Zuma identified “rapid economic transformation” and
“inclusive growth” as the policy centerpieces of his second term in
office. This emphasis on transformation reflects an underlying unease
within the ruling ANC and represents a tacit recognition that Zuma’s
first term was largely squandered due to scandals, managerial
incompetence and party strife.
Race to Succeed Ban at U.N. Heats UpBy: Richard Gowan | Column
The race to succeed Ban Ki-moon as
secretary-general of the United Nations is heating up. More or less open
candidates are emerging with growing frequency. This may seem
premature: Ban will not leave office until the end of 2016, and he has a
lot of unfinished business to attend to. But if Ban seems intent on
going out with a bang, U.N. officials and diplomats are already
speculating about his successor.
As ISIS Chaos Grows, Iraqi Kurds Must Not Overplay Their HandBy: Hannes Cerny | Briefing
With insurgents from the Islamic State in
Iraq and Syria advancing on Baghdad, Iraq finds itself in the worst
political and military crisis since the height of the civil war in
2006-2007; its very survival as a state is in doubt. Iraqi Kurds appear
to have gained the most from the anarchy, but they must proceed with
caution. Kurdish plans for greater autonomy would suffer if the Iraqi
state fell apart altogether.
Despite Softer Rhetoric, Iran Foreign Policy Shows Little ChangeBy: Richard Weitz | Column
One of the major issues affecting U.S.
deliberations over whether to accept a nuclear deal with Iran or to
cooperate with Tehran in Iraq is the question of how much Iranian
foreign policy has changed under President Hassan Rouhani. In fact, a
survey of Iranian foreign policy during the past year shows major
improvements in only a few areas, with a harder line on other issues and
broad continuity in most cases.
Lebanon’s Presidential Crisis Hangs on Saudi, Iranian RivalryBy: Bilal Y. Saab | Briefing
Lebanon’s presidential crisis has local
dimensions, but the root causes of the void are external. They are
linked to the regional power struggle between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the
main outside backers, respectively, of the Shiite Hezbollah and its
rival, the Sunni Future Movement. So long as Tehran and Riyadh disagree
over who should occupy the presidential palace, Lebanon will be without a
head of state.
Spain’s Exclaves Prove to Be Security Boon as Well as RiskBy: The Editors | Leading Indicators
Spanish police have recently begun to
crack down on Islamist militants in its exclaves Ceuta and Melilla in
North Africa. In an email interview, Gerry O’Reilly, senior lecturer in
geography and international affairs at St Patrick’s College, Dublin City
University, discussed Spanish policy toward both autonomous
territories.
Kidnapping of Israeli Teens Could Scuttle Hamas-Fatah DealBy: Frida Ghitis | Column
The abduction of three Israeli teenagers
has reawakened enmity between Hamas and Fatah, dormant since a recent
reconciliation deal that produced a unity government and called for
Palestinian elections to be held within six months thereafter. But the
process is now suspended and may come apart. If the kidnapping was
carried out by Hamas, it may just turn out to be a milestone mistake for
the organization.
The Party and the Army: Civil-Military Relations in CubaBy: William M. LeoGrande | Briefing
When Raul Castro became president of Cuba
in 2008, he replaced most of Fidel's cabinet with ministers of his own
choosing, many of them from the armed forces, prompting speculation
about a military "takeover" of the Cuban government. But to regard this
circulation of elites as breaching some clear divide between civilian
and military roles is to misunderstand the nature of civil-military
relations in Cuba.
Iraq’s Refugee Situation Shows Signs of History RepeatingBy: The Editors | Trend Lines
Last week, following the capture of Mosul
by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the United Nations raised
the crisis in Iraq to a level three humanitarian disaster—its highest
designation—with over 1.5 million displaced people. In an email
interview, David Romano, associate professor of political science at
Missouri State University, discussed the refugee situation in Iraq.
Russia’s Energy Ambitions Explain Putin’s Zigzags on UkraineBy: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column
How to explain Vladimir Putin’s zigzags on
Ukraine? Putin’s long-term goal is to prevent Ukraine’s integration
into the Euro-Atlantic world. In the short term, however, there is a
lodestone that accounts for the shifts in Russia’s Ukraine policy:
completing Russia’s emergence as the world’s energy superpower. This
involves accomplishing two major projects: the South Stream pipeline and
the opening of the Arctic.
|
EU-Iran Relations: A Strategic Assessment
EU-Iran Relations: A Strategic Assessment
Cornelius Adebahr
June 23, 2014 | http://carnegieendowment.org/
The EU’s approach to Iran
has emerged as one of the few successes of European foreign policy. In
particular, the signing of an interim agreement in November 2013 that
put limits on Tehran’s nuclear program for the first time marked a
historic victory for EU diplomacy. Catherine Ashton, the EU’s top
diplomat, continues to lead negotiations with Iran on behalf of the
international community and aims to reach a “comprehensive” long-term
agreement by late July 2014.
Cornelius Adebahr
June 23, 2014 | http://carnegieendowment.org/
Nowhere Land
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| Nowhere Land | |
| by David Conrad, Micah Alberthttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/06/25/nowhere_land_western_sahara_terrorism?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Flashpoints&utm_campaign=Flashpoints%20June%2027 | |
| After 40 years of fighting in the desert for their unrecognized country, the people of Western Sahara may be on the cusp of collapsing into extremism - and it could be the thing that saves them. | |
|
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|
"China is Competing Today with the United States"
"China is Competing Today with the United States"
06/26/14
J. Randy Forbes
Security, China
In June 2012 I wrote an article for CSIS:PacNet titled "China. There, I said it"
in an effort to generate a conversation about how the United States was
publicly discussing the competitive elements of its relationship with
the People's Republic of China (PRC). At the time, I felt like there was
an unnecessarily tight muzzle on our civilian and military leadership
that prevented the US from having a frank and honest conversation about
the subject. If Congress is going to be asked to marshal the resources
to sustain its enduring interests in the Asia-Pacific region--including a
balance of military power that favors the US and its allies--I
contended that the administration and specifically the Pentagon would
only be successful if they were comfortable publicly making the case why
these investments were required.
Two
years on, I have observed occasional improvements in the discourse.
Between President Obama's strong position on the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands
before his recent trip to Asia, Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel's
forceful speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue, or Assistant Secretary of
State Danny Russel's stern testimony on maritime disputes in the region,
the statements and testimony from administration officials and the
president himself in the past two years have taken on a new level of
seriousness toward China.
However,
in military and security terms we still struggle to communicate how the
defense budget is being built to manage the security competition with
China. For instance, our military's capabilities for anti-surface and
anti-air warfare, counter-mine operations, missile defense, long-range
strike, and base resiliency are increasingly discussed in public
briefings and strategy documents. Unfortunately, there is a tendency to
justify these missions as an end in themselves rather than explain why
they have taken on a newfound importance. Classified briefings will
continue to be used to translate this information to the Congressional
defense committees, but if the Pentagon aims to justify its budget to
Congress as a whole and avoid further rounds of sequestration cuts, for
instance, it will need to move beyond discussing missions and programs
to identify the actual risks associated with failing to counter China's
emerging military capabilities.
Read full articlehttp://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/china-competing-today-the-united-states-10755
The Many Economies of America
The Many Economies of America
06/26/14
Samuel Rines
Economics, United States
The
US is not economically homogeneous, and it is too often treated as if
it were. It sounds reasonable to say the US economy is rebounding from
the recession. But in reality it is far more complex. The US is
comprised of regions that have economic spirits idiosyncrasies all their
own. It is unreasonable to say “The US economy is...” anything, because
there is no “US” economy.
According to recently released 2013 data,
states grew anywhere from -2.5 percent (Alaska) to +9.7 percent (North
Dakota). To be fair, North Dakota sits on the Bakken formation and is
growing from a very low base. Regardless, it had 2 percent growth in the
depths of the most recent recession, and its unemployment rate is now 2.6 percent.
Interestingly, lower oil production on the North Slope was the cause of
the decline in Alaska’s output. Even regionally, growth rates differ
substantially. In 2013, the Rocky Mountain region grew at a 4.1 percent
clip, while the Mideast grew at only 0.7 percent.
The
coasts of the US have long dominated economic activity, but
increasingly, the middle matters. The “middle”—regions that include the
Southwest (3.3 percent growth), the Plains (2.5 percent growth), and the
Rocky Mountains (4.1 percent growth)—grew far more quickly than either
coast. Together, the 3 regions contributed 38 percent of total economic
growth; up from 36 percent in 2012. With the exception of Texas, most of
the rapid growth in the middle came from smaller economies such as
Wyoming, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and Idaho.
This
regional economic disparity makes it difficult for the Federal Reserve
to create effective policies for the country as a whole. By default, the
Fed is forced to set policy based on the economies of the larger
states: the ones that do have an effect on the aggregate statistics “US
GDP” and “unemployment”. These would be New York, Texas, and California
which represent about 30 percent of US GDP, but are not necessarily
representative of the US economy as a whole. This creates the potential
for economic overheating in some parts of the country, while other
locales require continued Fed support.
Read full articlehttp://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/the-many-economies-america-10756
The Bias for Action in U.S. Foreign Policy
The Bias for Action in U.S. Foreign Policy
06/26/14
Paul R. Pillar
United States Iraq, Middle East
A
“bias for action” has long been a buzz phrase in the business world.
Tom Peters and Robert Waterman in their best-selling book In Search of Excellence
put the phrase at the top of their list of attributes of what they
considered to be outstanding firms. For an individual hoping to make it
big in business, it's not a bad phrase to keep in mind. Ambitious
executives do not make names for themselves by saying they will take
whatever organization they are responsible for and try not to screw it
up. They make names by shaking things up. Moreover, the businesses with
the most dramatic and admired garage-startup-to-behemoth histories
necessarily had a bias for action.
Even
in business, however, the behavior implied by the phrase has
limitations. What is good for the rising career of an individual
executive is not necessarily good for the firm. And for every Apple or
Amazon we have heard about, there are many more companies we have not
heard about in which the leader's bias for action led to unprofitable
business lines, financial overextension, or other failures that caused
the firm to crash and burn.
Applied
to foreign policy, the soundness of behavior implied by a bias for
action is even more questionable. Perhaps it is most valid when trying
to build an empire. Otto von Bismarck, for example, had a bias for
action when using wars against other European states as a means for
putting together the German Empire. But for most states at most times,
that is not the case. It is not the case for the United States today.
The United States has a responsibility, to itself as well as to world
order, less to build a bigger empire than to avoid screwing things up.
And when the United States screws up, things can get very bad, not only
because as the world's only superpower it is more powerful than anyone
else but also because with global involvement it has a lot of
vulnerabilities that other states do not have. Crashing and burning is
not an option.
Read full articlehttp://nationalinterest.org/blog/paul-pillar/the-bias-action-us-foreign-policy-10764
From Stalwarts to Scapegoats: America's Foreign Clients
From Stalwarts to Scapegoats: America's Foreign Clients
06/27/14
Ted Galen Carpenter
History, Security, Politics, Global Governance, United States, Iraq, Vietnam
"We must stop portraying foreign political figures in heroic terms, only to repudiate those same figures when they predictably fail to live up to our fantasies."
As forces of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) conquer major chunks of Sunni-inhabited areas in Iraq
and advance on Baghdad, it has become fashionable among U.S.
politicians and pundits to place the blame for the latest debacle at the
feet of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Just a few years ago, though,
those same opinion leaders hailed him as the symbol of a new, democratic
Iraq. Maliki’s journey from Washington-backed national savior to scapegoat is a familiar one.
Time
and time again, U.S. leaders and their media allies have anointed a
Third World political figure as the latest Great Pro-Western Democratic
Hope, only to become disillusioned when that leader fails to live up to
Washington’s unrealistic expectations. Then, that leader becomes the
cause of everything that has gone wrong in his country, combined with
the implicit assumption that a change of leadership would make the
troubling developments go away. It is a lazy, naïve style of foreign
policy that ignores far deeper causes of instability in many of Washington’s client states.
The
transformation of Maliki’s image from one of a democratic statesman to a
divisive and inept sectarian political hack is similar to what has
occurred in Afghanistan, another arena of dashed U.S. nation-building
aspirations. In the years immediately following Washington’s ouster of
the Taliban regime in Kabul, U.S. officials portrayed Hamid Karzai
as someone who was committed to forging a modern, democratic
Afghanistan. A few critics in the United States derided him as little
more than the mayor of greater Kabul, and argued that his ability to
stay in power at all was heavily dependent on the continued backing of
U.S. occupation forces. American enthusiasts of Karzai’s rule, however,
summarily dismissed such cynical observations.
Read full articlehttp://nationalinterest.org/feature/stalwarts-scapegoats-americas-foreign-clients-10759
Okinawa: A Crack in the Pacific Pivot to Asia
Okinawa: A Crack in the Pacific Pivot to Asia
06/27/14
Alexander Cooley
State of the Military, Politics, Defense, Security, Japan, United States
In Okinawa, the complex local politics that surround the U.S. basing presence have entered an uncertain new phase—one that threatens to derail the new security consensus held by Tokyo and Washington.
GINOWAN
CITY, OKINAWA—The Obama administration has affirmed its intent to
“pivot” to Asia by concluding new security agreements with the
Philippines and Australia. In Japan, China's provocations over the
Senkaku Islands and more aggressive stance towards South China Sea
territorial issues have seemingly strengthened and refocused the pivot’s
linchpin: the U.S.-Japan security partnership. But in Okinawa, the
southern prefecture that hosts 74 percent of U.S. military facilities
in Japan, the complex local politics that surround the U.S. basing
presence have entered an uncertain new phase, one that threatens to
derail the new security consensus held by Tokyo and Washington.
Okinawa
has long been a source of both principled and patronage-driven
opposition to the U.S. military. Some Okinawans hold sincere
antimilitary beliefs, due to the historical memories of the brutal
battle fought there during World War II and the U.S. military's
colonial-style administration from 1952 to 1972 during which it forcibly
acquired local land for base construction. A related recurring
complaint is that Tokyo privileges the political needs of the main
islands above the wishes of the remote prefecture’s residents.
But
for over forty years, Tokyo has alleviated Okinawa’s "special base
burden" by providing a wide range of payments, both to compensate
individuals affected by base-related accidents and pollution, and to
subsidize public-works projects for the regional government and
base-hosting municipalities. In 1995, massive antibase demonstrations on
the island followed the widely publicized rape of a twelve-year old
schoolgirl by three U.S. service members. In response, Tokyo increased
its compensation packages and, with the agreement of Washington, agreed
to close and consolidate some basing facilities. Chief among them was a plan to relocate
Marine Air Station Futenma, which is surrounded by crowded Ginowan
City, to a new facility to be constructed off the coast of Cape Henoko
in the north.
Read full articlehttp://nationalinterest.org/feature/okinawa-crack-the-pacific-pivot-asia-10760
Neoconservatives, the Iraq Debate and Ad Hominem Attacks
Neoconservatives, the Iraq Debate and Ad Hominem Attacks
06/27/14
James Joyner
Domestic Politics, Security, United States, Iraq
While those who advocated for the Iraq War were wrong, ad hominem attacks make for poor debate.
The stunning success of the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham
has renewed American interest in a country where we fought almost
continuously for over two decades before pulling the plug in December
2011. Suddenly, old debates have begun again and new ones have arisen as
to "who lost Iraq" and what, if anything, the United States should do about it.
On
our television screens and op-ed pages, some familiar faces and names
have again been talking about Iraq, including former Vice President Dick
Cheney, former Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz and former
Iraq Coalition Provisional Authority administrator Paul Bremer, along
with various neocon pols and pundits who never went away. Some are now
arguing that, having gotten Iraq so spectacularly wrong the last time,
these people should not be listened to now. That idea is both misguided
and dangerous.
In
full disclosure, while I had an infinitesimal fraction of the impact on
the public debate as those in question, I was among those who got Iraq
wrong in 2003. I was the reverse John Kerry, in that I was opposed to
the war before supporting it. The early arguments made by Wolfowitz and
company, focusing on Saddam's evil character and his long past use of
chemical weapons against his own people, struck me as a poor
justification for war. Despite having opposed virtually every
significant U.S. military intervention of the past quarter century,
though, I was eventually persuaded that regime change in Iraq was
necessary. In the wake of North Korea joining the nuclear club and the
sudden dwindling of American options on the Peninsula, I believed a
nuclear-empowered Saddam was an unacceptable risk.
While
I've long since acknowledged that the war was a mistake and eschewed
the nation-building campaign almost from its outset, it took me longer
than most who write under the TNI masthead to advocate withdrawal, for a variety of reasons too complicated and tangential to this column to go into here.
Read full articlehttp://nationalinterest.org/feature/neoconservatives-the-iraq-debate-ad-hominem-attacks-10761
How to Have a Big Disastrous War with China
How to Have a Big Disastrous War with China
06/27/14
Bill Dries
Security, Military Strategy, United States, China
The flawed logic of Offshore Control.
In their June 10 National Interest article, T. X. Hammes and R. D. Hooker again propose “Offshore Control” as a viable strategy for a conflict with China. Using CSBA’s AirSea Battle concept as a contrast to their ideas,
Hammes and Hooker claim that Offshore Control can provide the “military
component of the U.S. national strategy in Asia,” while AirSea Battle
cannot. The DOD’s Air-Sea Battle operational concept
is not the same as CSBA’s AirSea Battle concept (note the lack of a
hyphen). The DOD concept was finalized in 2011 and is being implemented
at present. Both “ASB” concepts have received their fair share of
criticism from Hammes and Hooker, among others; meanwhile, the Offshore
Control strategy, originally introduced by Hammes in 2012,
has received scant scrutiny. This paper exposes the flawed logic of
Offshore Control and demonstrates why it would likely fail if tried, and
that using it as a part of the U.S. strategy would risk a large,
destructive war with China.
Read full articlehttp://nationalinterest.org/feature/how-have-big-disastrous-war-china-10762
Kazakhstan: Central Asia's Vital Nation
Kazakhstan: Central Asia's Vital Nation
06/27/14
Energy, Economic Development, Politics, Kazakhstan
TNI's Editor speaks with Kazakh Foreign Minister Erlan Idrissov.
Editor’s Note: The National Interest’s Editor Jacob Heilbrunn spoke with Kazakhstan’s Foreign Minister Erlan Idrissov.
Minister
Idrissov has enjoyed a long and distinguished career as a senior
diplomat. In 1992, Mr. Idrissov was appointed Secretary of the Permanent
Mission of Kazakhstan to the UN in New York City. Just three years
later, he began work for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan
as the Head of the American Department while also acting as
Ambassador-at-Large. Idrissov later became assistant to the President of
Kazakhstan, working on international issues. In 1997, he was nominated
First Vice-Minister of Foreign Affairs. Following his service in this
position, he was appointed Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan in
October 1999. Mr. Idrissov was posted to London in 2002 to serve as
Ambassador to the UK, Norway, and Sweden. He continued to work in Europe
until he was named Ambassador to the United States on July 7, 2007,
where he is still remembered as one of the most effective, eloquent and
formidable ambassadors in Washington.
The interview was conducted on June 25, 2014.
Heilbrunn: Will Kazakhstan develop nuclear energy?
Idrissov:
We have world-class reserves in oil and gas, and coal; and we are the
number one producer of natural uranium at the moment. Of course, having
these resources, we plan to develop nuclear energy in Kazakhstan. We
have experience, human capital–people who can build and run facilities
for peaceful uses of nuclear energy. And we also have an impeccable
record in terms of non-proliferation and export control, having
contributed greatly to world security by renouncing the huge nuclear
arsenal we inherited from the Soviet Union. Therefore, we want to make
sure that we bring value to the nuclear sector. Not just producing
natural uranium, but producing more added value from uranium.
Read full article
Obamacare and the economy: Titanic disaster dead ahead?
Obamacare and the economy: Titanic disaster dead ahead?
Read more at http://www.commdiginews.com/business-2/obamacare-and-the-economy-titanic-disaster-dead-ahead-20374/#V5vCkzs6aPMX76rg.99
Read more at http://www.commdiginews.com/business-2/obamacare-and-the-economy-titanic-disaster-dead-ahead-20374/#V5vCkzs6aPMX76rg.99
http://www.commdiginews.com/business-2/obamacare-and-the-economy-titanic-disaster-dead-ahead-20374/
How Obamacare screwed up first-quarter U.S. growth estimates
How Obamacare screwed up first-quarter U.S. growth estimates
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/capitolreport/2014/06/25/how-obamacare-screwed-up-first-quarter-u-s-growth-estimates/
Maybe Obamacare Didn't Save The U.S. Economy After All
Maybe Obamacare Didn't Save The U.S. Economy After All
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/25/obamacare-gdp-growth_n_5529342.html?utm_hp_ref=business
Obamacare Premiums Are Going Up—Here's Why
Obamacare Premiums Are Going Up—Here's Why
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-06-26/obamacare-premiums-are-going-up-heres-why
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