http://lobelog.com/playing-poker-with-one-card/#more-33545

Playing Poker with One Card

by Payman Shamsian
The number of registered refugees in Turkey has exceeded three million, which makes it the largest sanctuary in the world. This number is terrifying, not only for human rights organizations or Turkey’s government, but also for European leaders. It is clear why human rights institutions are concerned: this number shows the size of the world’s greatest ongoing humanitarian crisis. Turkey’s government is concerned because it has to deal with these refugees inside the country. Is Europe concerned by this number because of the humanitarian causes that it champions around the world? No, European leaders are in a panic because they are afraid of Turkey letting all these refugees come to Europe. And Turkey’s Erdogan is well aware of this fear.
Since last summer, which many Europeans are likely to remember as the time of “refugee/immigrant crisis,” Europe has tried in multiple ways to halt the inflow of refugees mostly coming from Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan . It tried to close the borders. It appealed publicly to refugees not to come to Europe. And it tried hard to educate potential asylum seekers about the physical risks they would undergo in making the trip. None of these attempts has worked so far, given the fact that the number of arrivals remains immense, about 150,000 people so far this year.
Europe now sees Turkey as the only power that can keep the refugee flow contained in the Middle East. Of course, by adopting harsher policies against refugees and deporting them back to Turkey, Europe is undermining its normative power as the world’s most well known defender and promoter of human values. At the same time, the presence of large numbers of refugees in Europe highlights the internal weaknesses and defects of the European Union.
To extract itself from this predicament, Europe essentially wants to make Erdogan its immigration-enforcement officer for the Middle East. In the two summits that have been held between EU and Turkey so far, Brussels has promised 6 billion euros to help Turkey deal with the refugees inside its territory. The policy of “one in, one out” is the simplistic solution of European and Turkish leaders to the refugee crisis.
In this game, however, Turkey declines to play the fool, as Erdogan put it. Since, at this point, the refugee card is the strongest card for Turkey to play, Erdogan wants to play it for all it’s worth. http://lobelog.com/turkey-playing-poker-with-one-card-on-refugees/#more-33545