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Tuesday, September 15, 2015

CFR Daily News Update: Putin Vows to Continue Supporting Syrian Government

September 15, 2015
Daily News Brief
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TOP OF THE AGENDA
Putin Vows to Continue Supporting Syrian Government
Speaking at a security summit in Tajikistan, Russian President Vladimir Putin pledged (WSJ) continued military assistance to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his regime, and appealed to other countries to join him. The statement comes amid concerns of a possible Russian military buildup in the Middle Eastern country. On Monday, the Pentagon said that Russia appears to be setting up an air base (Al Jazeera) in Syria, days after U.S. officials alleged that Moscow sent tanks and artillery (Reuters) to back the regime.
ANALYSIS
"In promoting a rapprochement between Russia and the West over the Islamic State, Mr. Putin hopes to rehabilitate himself, just as he did after Sept. 11. Back then, Mr. Putin convinced the West that the threat it faced in Afghanistan and elsewhere was the same as Russia faced in Chechnya. By doing so, Russia’s president was able to tamp down Western criticism of Russia’s brutality in Chechnya. The Kremlin saw the West's enthusiasm for cooperation as weakness. It led Mr. Putin to believe that he could act however he liked in Russia, and get away with it. That belief still prevails—but no longer applies only to Russia," writes Andrew Foxall in the New York Times.
"There is now little hope of establishing a no-fly zone over Syria, unless Washington wants to be in the business of shooting down Russian aircraft. From a broader perspective, U.S. efforts to arm the opposition to Assad mean fighting a proxy war with Moscow, either by trying to down the Russian planes or helping Syrian opposition forces kill Russian combat troops on the ground. That seems a much tougher task than fighting a proxy war with Iran and Hezbollah," writes Jeffrey Lewis in Foreign Policy.
"But the UN route can and must be tried again. The nuclear pact between Iran and the Security Council’s five permanent members (the US, China, France, Russia, and the UK) plus Germany, has just provided a powerful demonstration of the Council’s capacity to lead. It can lead in Syria as well, if the US will set aside its unilateral demand for regime change and work with the rest of the Council, including China and Russia, on a common approach. In Syria, only multilateralism can succeed. The UN remains the world’s best—indeed its only—hope to stop the Syrian bloodbath and halt the flood of refugees to Europe," writes Jeffrey D. Sachs in Project Syndicate.

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