WPR Articles July 21, 2014 - July 25, 2014
Despite U.S. Efforts, Root Causes of Migration Crisis Prevail in Central America
By: Michael Allison | Briefing
The United States, Guatemala, Honduras and
El Salvador are frantically trying to address the humanitarian crisis
unfolding on both the U.S. border and in Central America. They have
pursued several initiatives to combat violence, strengthen democracy and
promote economic opportunity, to stem the sudden increase of young
migrants heading north. But such efforts have not delivered their
intended benefits.
Why the Republic of Congo Has Sent Tens of Thousands of Migrants Back to DRC
By: David Klion | Trend Lines
Over 130,000 migrants from the Democratic
Republic of Congo (DRC) have been deported from or otherwise driven out
of the neighboring Republic of Congo since April. The U.N. has declared
these expulsions “an acute humanitarian crisis.” The deportations have
shocked many observers, some of whom attribute the crackdown to the
political needs of President Denis Sassou Nguesso, the strong man in
Brazzaville.
As Talks Stall, South Sudan Conflict Grinds to Stalemate
By: Lesley Anne Warner | Briefing
Seven months after fighting broke out
between the government of South Sudan and anti-government forces, the
civil war is at a stalemate. Unlike its early days, when cities changed
hands multiple times, the status quo has largely held since May. Despite
several agreements signed by both sides, negotiations in neighboring
Ethiopia have not led to a resolution of the conflict or a way out of
the crisis.
Sweden No Longer Immune to Rise of Nationalist Populism
By: Karl Lallerstedt | Briefing
Rising immigration, failed integration and
the radicalization of a small minority of young Muslims have fueled the
ascent of populist parties across Europe. Sweden is not immune. Of all
the Nordic countries, Sweden has the highest proportion of immigrants,
and yet it has registered the lowest level of support for nationalist
parties. But that has begun to change with the rise of the nationalist
Sweden Democrats.
Japan Deepens Ties With Central Asia, but Still Trails Russia, China
By: J. Berkshire Miller | Briefing
Last week, Japan’s Foreign Minister Fumio
Kishida met with his Central Asian counterparts in Bishkek as part of
the fifth Central Asia Plus Japan Dialogue. Initiated in 2004, the
dialogue has served as the foundation for recent ties between Tokyo and
Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. This
year’s meeting focused on economic cooperation and potential security
collaboration.
West Needs New Rules to Contain Proxy Wars With RussiaBy: Richard Gowan | Column
The events of the past week in Ukraine
have confirmed three painful facts about the state of international
affairs. The first is that the West is trapped in a cycle of proxy wars
with Russia, running from Libya through Syria to Ukraine. The second is
that there is no real rulebook for managing these conflicts. The third
is that these confrontations are liable to escalate with unnerving
frequency.
With Negotiations Extended, U.S. Ponders Future of Iran SanctionsBy: Eric Auner | Trend Lines
The extension of nuclear negotiations
between Iran and the P5+1 countries includes allowing Iran to access
$2.8 billion of its restricted assets. That has many in Washington
debating the effect of previous sanctions relief and whether threatening
or imposing future sanctions would improve the U.S. hand in
negotiations. But analysis is mixed over the extent to which this relief
has boosted Iran’s economy.
Argentina Looking to Cement Its Role as Nuclear PowerBy: The Editors | Trend Lines
Argentina signed a nuclear energy deal
with Russia last week, the latest step in Argentina’s push to expand its
nuclear industry. Irma Arguello, chair of the NPSGlobal Foundation,
discussed Argentina’s nuclear energy policy in an email interview.
Putin’s South American Trip Hides Russia’s Strategic WeaknessesBy: Richard Weitz | Column
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit
to South America this month garnered considerable attention. In the
U.S., some saw the trip as a tit-for-tat display of influence in
Washington’s strategic backyard. However, it is best to keep Moscow’s
machinations in perspective. Russia is presenting a number of challenges
to important U.S. global interests, but its activities in South America
are not among them.
Without Chad, Central African Republic Peace Talks Unlikely to SucceedBy: Celeste Hicks | Briefing
All sides in Central African Republic’s
civil war are looking to a peace conference this week in neighboring
Republic of Congo to yield a cease-fire agreement. But major questions
linger about what the meeting can actually achieve. It’s unclear if the
main rebel group Seleka will even attend, and Chad is not playing a
leading role in talks. Any lasting peace in CAR is likely only to
succeed with Chad’s support.
U.S. Must Rethink Unsustainable Counterterrorism StrategyBy: Steven Metz | Column
While the world's attention this week was
focused on Gaza and Ukraine, security remained precarious in Iraq and
Afghanistan, the two lynchpins of America's conflict with transnational
terrorism. Iraq and Afghanistan remain stark reminders that America's
counterterrorism strategy, developed by the Bush administration and
largely adopted by the Obama administration, is increasingly ineffective
and unsustainable.
In Israel, Pragmatism Could Trump Ideology After the FightingBy: Frida Ghitis | Column
The domestic political repercussions of a
military conflict don’t become clear until the fighting stops. But
political tremors don’t wait for a cease-fire. In Israel, the current
confrontation with Hamas has fractured a major political alliance and
caused one high-level personnel change. But so far there is no
indication that Israel’s political landscape will be dramatically
transformed by the conflict.
International Law Solutions Fall Short for Israelis, Palestinians in Gaza ConflictBy: Lolita Brayman | Briefing
As the death toll in Gaza rises, legal
definitions of what is permissible in war have been bitterly contested.
International law defines war crimes and crimes against humanity in the
Geneva Conventions and the Rome Statute, but in the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict, the classifications are difficult to apply. Through the grey
areas of international law, both sides have found new ways to blame each
other.
On Iran and Russia, Obama Gambling for More TimeBy: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column
Though it is axiomatic that almost any
foreign policy action taken by President Barack Obama will be
reflexively criticized by the Republican opposition, in recent months
congressional Democrats have been more willing to publicly voice
critiques of the president’s performance. But Obama appears to be
willing to swallow his pride and suffer domestic political attacks if it
buys him time and maneuvering room.
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