The Next Cuban Missile Crisis: The Showdown in Ukraine?

The Next Cuban Missile Crisis: The Showdown in Ukraine?

07/30/14

Tom Thomson

Security, Ukraine

The window of opportunity for multilateral talks to end the violence in the Ukraine is closing fast.  The EU's fears of imposing stronger economic sanctions against Russia has fallen away in response to its outrage over the MH17 tragedy and evidence that Russia continues to supply heavy weapons to Ukrainian separatists.  The US is expected within days to follow with even more crippling sanctions. 

The positions held by all parties to the conflict - Ukraine, the pro-Russian separatists, Russia, EU and the US - are solidifying to a point where opportunities are becoming fewer for starting negotiations to reduce tensions and prevent future miscalculations like the MH17 disaster that could push Russia and Ukraine closer to war.

During the Cold War, the Soviets and the Western Alliance were implacable enemies.  Still, these foes understood the limits of a confrontation in order to avoid miscalculations that could lead to war.  During the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, Kennedy and Khrushchev chose flexibility over hardened positions to avoid a military confrontation that could have started World War III, and afterwards installed the hotline between the US White House and the Kremlin to help prevent future crises. 

In 2014, the stakes for the global community on the worsening situation in Ukraine are not as high as they were in the waters off the coast of Cuba in 1962.  But there is little doubt that all parties to the crisis in Ukraine have become vested in the correctness of their national viewpoint and have little room, if any, for compromise.

All sides share some of the blame.  In Russia, President Putin enjoys record high public support for his position on the Ukrainian separatists, annexing Crimea and reclaiming Russia's role as a global power.  Polling data and anecdotal findings shows a majority of Russians across all age groups are sympathetic to this view. 

In the US, a rigorous national policy debate over the crisis in Ukraine and Russia is long overdue.  The Cold War rhetoric and the demonizing of Russia and President Putin in the media and by several members of the U.S. Congress is driving the policy debate toward knee jerk reactions and away from thoughtful deliberations to forge a consistent long-term Russia policy.  Thomas Graham and Jeffrey Mankoff presented compelling arguments in this publication for such a reexamination of policy. 

Read full articlehttp://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/the-next-cuban-missile-crisis-the-showdown-ukraine-10981