Why Iran Fears an Independent Kurdistan
07/25/14
Alex Vatanka
Security, Foreign Policy, Iran, Kurdistan, Iraq
"Tehran’s fears about Iraqi Kurdish intentions are rooted in deeper fears about Iraq imploding as a nation-state."
Tehran is increasingly nervous about a potential bid by Iraq’s Kurds for independence.
First, an independent Kurdish state next door could incite Iran’s own
Kurdish minority, setting a dangerous precedent in the multiethnic
country. Second, the two countries likely to have the most leverage over
an independent Kurdistan would be Turkey and Israel, Iran’s regional
rivals. From Tehran’s perspective, a Kurdish blowback inside Iran and a
Turkish and Israeli geopolitical win at its expense has to be thwarted.
Reading Barzani’s Game
Tehran’s fears about Iraqi Kurdish intentions are rooted in deeper fears about Iraq imploding as a nation-state.
In recent weeks, the president of the Kurdish region in Iraq, Massoud
Barzani, has been feeding speculation about his people breaking away
from Iraq. He announced on June 30 that he intends to hold a referendum
on independence “within months.” Barzani has since been arguing that
such a step is a mere formality, as Iraq is already effectively
partitioned into Shia, Sunni and Kurdish regions. In the meantime, he
has been gauging the regional and international community’s reception of
his plans.
In Tehran, where reading Kurdish tea leaves is the latest trend, opinion is split between those who see Barzani as engaging in the theatrics of brinkmanship
and those who take him at his word. The skeptics, who are in the
minority, say Barzani is playing a political game with Prime Minister
Nouri al-Maliki, raising the prospect of independence in order to secure
territorial and political concessions from a beleaguered central
government in Baghdad. In other words, they suspect that Barzani is
mainly an opportunist, not necessarily a separatist.
Read full articlehttp://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-iran-fears-independent-kurdistan-10950
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