China and Japan Beware: World War I's Lesson for the East China Sea

China and Japan Beware: World War I's Lesson for the East China Sea

07/01/14

Minxin Pei

History, Security, China, Japan

"As the world marks the 100th anniversary of World War I, Chinese leaders—and perhaps their Japanese counterparts—must learn history’s most tragic lesson..."

In November last year, when China declared its East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) that covers the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands and overlaps with Japan’s ADIZ, many warned that Beijing and Tokyo could get into an accidental military clash because their military aircraft would challenge each other in the airspace included in the controversial ADIZ.

Today, such worries are no longer academic. On several occasions in May and June, Chinese jet fighters flew within a 100 feet of Japanese propeller-driven reconnaissance planes in China’s self-claimed ADIZ over the East China Sea. Beijing then accused the Japanese Self-Defense Force of sending F-15s on June 11 to trail a Chinese TU-154 plane on a regular patrol in the East China Sea and also got within 100 feet of the Chinese plane. Japan has since denied the accusations.

Luckily, none of these incidents led to a midair collision or accidental firefight. However, given the subsequent acrimonious exchanges between Beijing and Tokyo, which accused each other of dangerous provocations, we can be assured that similar mid-air confrontations are almost certain to occur in the future. The nightmare we must imagine now is that when they happen again, the Chinese and the Japanese should not count on luck to save them from turning a game of chicken into an actual clash.

Read full articlehttp://nationalinterest.org/feature/china-japan-beware-world-war-lesson-the-east-china-sea-10780