Ukraine: Russia Should Fear Insurgency

Ukraine: Russia Should Fear Insurgency

Apr 01, 2014 03:00 am | William Courtney

William Courtney

As Russian forces occupy Crimea—and especially if they invade and hold wider swaths of the country—Ukraine and the West will face momentous decisions about backing an insurgency. The Kremlin may fear the toll that insurgents would take on occupying forces. The West should reinforce this anxiety.
Kremlin leaders profess an interest in negotiations, yet tens of thousands of Russian soldiers and airmen are arrayed along Ukraine’s eastern and northern borders. With little tactical warning they could unleash an assault. The buildup is somewhat akin to those before Russian forces swept into Chechnya in the 1990s, and into Georgia in 2008.
Moscow’s intentions toward Ukraine remain uncertain. Crimea may be enough, or Russia may pursue a wider conquests such as :
1. A land bridge across southeastern Ukraine to Crimea
2. Eastern and central but not western Ukraine, or
3. All of Ukraine.
Blazing a land bridge to Crimea would require massing Russian troops only on the southeastern border of Ukraine. A land bridge would facilitate Russian economic and military ties with Crimea.
Yet Russian forces are also poised across Ukraine’s eastern and northeastern borders. This suggests the Kremlin is contemplating taking eastern and perhaps central Ukraine. If Kyiv were seized, Ukraine’s government would be forced into exile, perhaps in the western region of the country.
The third option would incur higher risks—anti-Russian sentiments in western Ukraine are strong. On the other hand, an occupier's scorched-earth tactics are more effective when all the contested ground is held. Ukraine would have to locate its government-in-exile abroad, perhaps in Poland.
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