WPR Articles April 19, 2014 - April 25, 2014

Despite Tenacity of Corruption, Policy Interventions Have Made Significant Inroads

By: Chonira Aturupane | Briefing

Corruption in the public sphere is typically defined as the use of public office for private gain. The World Bank Institute has estimated that $1 trillion in bribes is paid every year. Given the detrimental impact of corruption on growth and development, several anti-corruption approaches have been tried over the years. Though top-down approaches have met with limited success, bottom-up approaches show promise.

U.S. Military Must Prepare for China’s Rise—and Fall

By: Steven Metz | Column

For now, Russia’s revived aggression is dominating the news in the United States. Once the furor subsides, al-Qaida will likely regain most of the attention. But in the long term, these issues pale in importance to the challenge of China’s rising power and the danger that may come with a Chinese slow-down. For the U.S., the priority is maintaining maximum flexibility in case a declining China lashes out.

With Eye on Moldova, NATO Must Shore Up Southeastern Front

By: Richard Weitz | Column

The standoff in eastern Ukraine is far from resolved, but whatever its outcome, NATO needs to take urgent measures to deter Russian military intervention in Moldova and reinforce its security guarantees to NATO members Bulgaria and Romania. These two countries are vulnerable to Russian pressure, and their strong support is needed to advance Western goals in the Balkans, the Caspian region and Central Asia.

With Elections Nearing, Iraq’s Maliki Confronts His Shiite Challengers

By: Myriam Benraad | Briefing

As Iraq gears up for general elections, the political constellation that has allowed Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to stay in power for two terms is realigning in unexpected ways. The country’s more fragmented political landscape and heightened intracommunal competition should make the post-electoral bargaining even more challenging and difficult than in 2010, and the impact of the results harder to predict.

Of Kennan, Racism and Realism

By: Heather Hurlburt | Column

Seven hundred pages of George Kennan’s diaries have just been published, and they reveal something that historians knew, but which the public might not: Kennan was a bigot. One is tempted to see this as reason enough to downgrade or dismiss Kennan from the foreign policy pantheon. Yet the analytic and human failings on view in Kennan’s diaries are reason not to dismiss his thinking but to reconsider its impact.

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Beating Expectations, China Moves Ahead With Substantive Economic Reforms

By: Iain Mills | Briefing

China’s leadership has long vowed to clean up the country’s bureaucracy and break up government monopolies. But the state apparatus has seemed unwilling or unable to push through substantive implementation measures—until now. Xi Jinping is undertaking the most sustained and well-strategized attack on vested interests in at least 15 years, in a campaign that may yield substantive progress on critical issues.

To Succeed, Guatemala Drug Reforms First Require Strong Institutions

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Early this month, Guatemalan President Otto Perez Molina announced he was considering a plan to legalize the production of marijuana and opium poppies in the country. In an email interview, Adriana Beltran, a senior associate for citizen security at the Washington Office on Latin America who specializes in Guatemala, explained how the proposal might affect levels of violence in the country.

Courting Disaster: Can Thailand’s Monarchy Survive Democracy?

By: David Streckfuss | Feature

When King Bhumibol Adulyadej of Thailand celebrated the 60th anniversary of his accession to the throne in June 2006, he seemed to be at the height of his popularity. Eight years later, many observers say that civil war in Thailand is no longer a remote possibility, the king’s nearly assured legacy seemingly squandered. The 82-year-old question of Thai constitutional monarchy might finally have come due: Who is sovereign—the people or the monarchy and the elite connected to it?

Despite China’s Protests, U.S. Remains Adamant About Taiwan’s Defense

By: Eric Auner | Trend Lines

Three decades after the passage of the Taiwan Relations Act, the United States continues to augment Taiwan’s military capabilities—recent discussions have raised the possibility of the U.S. helping Taiwan to acquire U.S.-made frigates and a new indigenous type of diesel submarines. But China’s rising military capabilities place the island in an increasingly vulnerable position.

To Reign or Rule: Morocco’s Halting Road to Liberalization

By: George Joffé | Feature

On July 23, 1999, Morocco’s ruler, King Hassan II, died and was succeeded by his eldest son, Mohammed VI. Many Moroccans hoped that the succession would also entail a transition from a system of autocratic rule to a liberal democracy, and the new king’s early initiatives seemed likely to give substance to these hopes. Now, 15 years later, it is possible to see to what extent those hopes have been fulfilled and, if they have not, to determine why and to what degree they have been disappointed.

Ungraceful Exit: The Tarnished Legacy of Spain’s Monarchy

By: Omar G. Encarnación | Feature

Facing a level of criticism unprecedented since its restoration in 1975, the Spanish monarchy is in full damage control mode. A series of gaffes and scandals has invited a host of uncomfortable questions about the private life of King Juan Carlos, who, since his ascent to the throne, has been accorded an extraordinary degree of deference. The shift is illustrative of how far the stock of the Spanish monarchy has fallen since it helped guarantee the country's post-Franco transition to democracy.

Specter of Genocide Still Hangs Over France-Rwanda Relations

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

The 20th anniversary of Rwanda’s 1994 genocide this month was marked by the re-emergence of tensions between France and Rwanda, after Rwandan President Paul Kagame claimed that France bore some responsibility for the genocide. In an email interview, Bruno Charbonneau, associate professor of political science at Laurentian University and the director of the Center for Peace and Humanitarian Missions Studies at Universite du Quebec a Montreal, Canada, explained the continuing tensions in France-Rwanda ties.

Sterile Politics Leaves Algeria’s Problems Unaddressed

By: George R. Trumbull IV | Briefing

Returning the ailing Abdelaziz Bouteflika to the presidency for a fourth term, Algeria’s April 17 elections delivered few surprises. Meanwhile, Algerians questioned the legitimacy of the electoral process by staying home in large numbers. Algeria’s competing political platforms—stability versus institutional reform—had surprisingly little to say to most Algerians about the concrete challenges facing the country.

Israeli Satellite Launch Part of Long and Successful Spacefaring Tradition

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

This month, Israel launched a new surveillance satellite reportedly aimed at monitoring Iran’s nuclear program. In an email interview, Deganit Paikowsky, a senior researcher the Yuval Neeman Workshop for Science, Technology and Security and an adjunct lecturer at the Security Studies Program at Tel Aviv University, explained the evolution and objectives of Israel’s space program.

Piketty Puts Economic Inequality on U.S. Political Map

By: Frida Ghitis | Column

When a book about economics becomes a No. 1 bestseller, it says as much about society as it does about the book. That’s why the explosive rise of “Capital in the Twenty-First Century,” by Thomas Piketty, is so revealing. Piketty’s work, on its own, is an impressive accomplishment. But the fact that it has been welcomed so enthusiastically by such a wide spectrum of the population proves that it has hit a nerve.

Venezuela a Test Case for U.S. to Navigate South America’s New Normal

By: Michael McCarthy | Briefing

The crisis in Venezuela captures the new normal of inter-American relations. UNASUR, a regional South American body, is playing a prominent role in fostering dialogue, while the U.S., though keen to shape Venezuela’s post-Chavez trajectory, is unsure of how to make a constructive impact. This unfolding episode serves as further reminder that U.S. foreign policy toward South America remains largely unsettled.

Khobragade, Keystone Cases Illustrate Fragmented U.S. Policy

By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column

If a national security policy to be worth more than the paper it is printed on, it needs to serve as a guide to making tough policy choices. But recent controversies around two U.S. strategic objectives show how poorly strategy is guiding policy. In the Devyani Khobragade case and the Keystone XL pipeline decision, the administration has lacked any mechanism to choose between competing priorities.

Ruling Party the Only Significant Loser in Indonesia’s Parliamentary Elections

By: Andrew Thornley | Briefing

By the numbers at least, there was plenty at stake in Indonesia’s April 9 parliamentary elections, when over 200,000 candidates contested almost 20,000 seats in 532 legislatures across the country. But to what extent were these elections a referendum on the sitting government? What do the elections tell us about the July presidential election? And what do they reveal about the state of democracy in Indonesia?