WPR Articles 24 Jun 2013 - 28 Jun 2013

Two Years After Independence, South Sudan Struggles to Build a Viable State

By: Stefan Wolff | Briefing

When South Sudan formally declared its independence, jubilant celebrations coincided with gloomy predictions about a failed state in the making. The past two years have done little to dispel the dire predictions that institutions in the South would not be able to cope with the enormous challenges of building a viable state. And there is little to suggest there will be any significant improvements anytime soon.

Europe’s Smart Pivot: The European Union in the Asian Century

By: Javier Solana | Feature

After nearly two centuries at the apex of the world economy, Europe, together with its American counterparts, must adapt to the new realities of Asia's re-emergence. Though the U.S. role in Asia has traditionally been higher profile, particularly in security matters, Europe is already looking east. In a global context of strong interdependence and flux, Europe must work from its strengths, drawing on its history in order to play a constructive and active role in the transition toward the Asian century.

Strategic Horizons: Transparency and American Security

By: Steven Metz | Column

Former National Security Agency contractor Edward Snowden continues to dominate the news. His association with WikiLeaks and his flight to avoid American authorities, which has taken him to China and Russia, indicate that a major issue is at play: the ability of America's opponents to exploit concerns about transparency and openness against the U.S. as part of a broad, integrated, asymmetric containment strategy.

Global Insider: Lebanese Armed Forces’ Neutrality in Question Amid Syria Spillover

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In an email interview, Oren Barak, associate professor of political science and international relations at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, explained the Lebanese armed forces’ position within Lebanese society and its efforts to maintain stability amid spillover from Syria’s civil war.

The Realist Prism: Snowden Extradition Backlash Bodes Ill for Iran, Taliban Talks

By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column

If the reaction of U.S. pundits to the Obama administration’s efforts to get accused NSA leaker Edward Snowden extradited are any indication, then the sort of protracted diplomatic efforts needed the resolve the Iran and Afghanistan crises are likely to run into considerable domestic political resistance.

More Diplomatic Fallout: Can Nigeria and Turkey Serve as Regional Policemen? By: Richard Gowan | Column Can regional powers replace the U.S. and Europe in policing perennial trouble spots such as the Middle East and West Africa? Or are their own weaknesses going to create new problems for the West? Recent events in Turkey and Nigeria have illustrated the dilemmas involved. It has become obvious that the middle powers the West nominated as regional policemen need to improve their internal policing instead. Global Insider: Syria’s Creative Maneuvers to Evade Sanctions Prove Insufficient By: The Editors | Trend Lines In an email interview, Samer Abboud, an assistant professor at Arcadia University who has researched Syria’s political economy, explained the history of sanctions against Syria and the sectors most deeply affected by them. Ending the Pretense: Reinventing the Trans-Atlantic Relationship By: Judy Dempsey | Feature The trans-Atlantic relationship is in a deep crisis for one main reason: The U.S. has come to see that NATO has outlived much of its usefulness. For Washington, it’s time for both sides to define their mutual interests and values as they stand today. The Europeans, in contrast, continue to believe that the old tenets of Atlanticism can be preserved. U.S. leaders will have to tell them, unequivocally, that the old relationship is over. Only then can both sides start building a new one. Global Insights: Past Yields Little Hope for Afghan Peace Talk Prospects By: Richard Weitz | Column After many months of false starts, Afghan peace talks may finally begin in Doha, Qatar. But a newly published study of almost three decades of negotiations with Afghan resistance movements should remind us that the likelihood of reaching a peace deal with the Taliban remains small: Although generalizing lessons from history is always precarious, none of the past negotiations ever yielded a peace agreement. India-Pakistan Energy Cooperation Could Get Boost Under Sharif By: Sam Tranum | Briefing Nawaz Sharif took over as Pakistani prime minister this month, pledging to improve relations with India and address his country's crippling energy shortage. Pakistani and Indian officials met earlier this month to discuss cross-border energy cooperation, perhaps signaling that Sharif’s new government aims to follow through on plans its predecessor spent years talking about. That would be good for both countries. Invisible Benefits: Why Bashing the EU Is So Easy By: John Peterson | Feature The European Union is widely considered by students of international relations to be the most successful experiment in international cooperation in human history. Yet, the Union is also the subject of increasingly vitriolic criticism by populist parties across Europe, who attack it as an elitist, undemocratic albatross. If the EU is so easy to bash, it is in part because of how quickly the benefits of European integration have become taken for granted as part of the “new normal.” New Elections Unlikely to End Kuwait’s Political Turmoil By: Catherine Cheney | Trend Lines In Kuwait, where the Constitutional Court has ordered the dissolution of parliament for the second time in a year, the Cabinet decided in an emergency meeting to call parliamentary elections—the sixth set of elections in seven years. Pakistan’s Sharif Must Navigate Between Wary Military and Assertive Judiciary By: Shehzad H. Qazi | Briefing Today’s Pakistan features not just a tussle for power between the civilian government and the military, but also an assertive judiciary. This puts Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in a tough spot, as in the past he has battled both institutions. Now, in addition to solving major policy problems, one of Sharif’s major challenges will be navigating his way around a powerful military and an activist judiciary. Abe Brings Japan Political Stability, but at High Cost By: Shihoko Goto | Briefing If there was ever a threat to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s leadership in recent months, it was annihilated in the Tokyo government elections last weekend, when not a single candidate from Abe’s Liberal Democratic party lost. But Japan’s economic and political future remains shaky at best, and the lack of any meaningful opposition to the LDP can only bode ill for the country’s longer-term prospects.   Ukraine’s Arms Sector Remains Tightly Controlled, Highly Secretive By: The Editors | Trend Lines This month, there were reports that Ukraine was considering seeking arms deals with both Mexico and Turkey. In an email interview, Taras Kuzio, a fellow at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and an expert in Ukrainian security and politics, explained the recent history and current state of Ukraine’s arms industry. With Elections Looming, Zimbabwe Not Yet Open for Business By: Richard Downie | Briefing As Zimbabwe steels itself for upcoming elections, international investors are watching political developments with interest. Excitement about economic opportunities in Zimbabwe has fueled a growing desire to explore alternatives to the political stalemate, with some risk-tolerant investors waiting in the wings for the political hurdles to be removed. But is this sense of cautious optimism justified? World Citizen: Egypt Set for Explosive Morsi Anniversary By: Frida Ghitis | Column One year ago this Sunday, Mohammed Morsi became president of Egypt, 18 months after revolutionary euphoria flooded Cairo’s streets. It would count as a massive understatement to call Morsi’s first year in office a disappointment. To see just how thoroughly Egyptians feel Morsi has let them down, follow events in the country this Sunday, as the country marks the anniversary with expected massive protests. Pakistani Taliban Attempt to Show Strength by Attacking Foreigners By: Catherine Cheney | Trend Lines The Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), commonly known as the Pakistani Taliban, has claimed responsibility for an attack over the weekend that killed nine foreign mountain climbers and their local guide, calling it retribution for a U.S. drone strike last month that killed Waliur Rehman, the deputy head of the terrorist organization. Protests a Needed Tonic for Turkey's Democracy By: Bayram Balci | Briefing The protests that began in Istanbul and soon spread throughout Turkey have become a globally watched demonstration against Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's recent policies. The protests will undoubtedly represent a turning point in the country’s political life. However, the past month’s events do not represent the worst-case scenario for Turkish democracy that many have made them out to be.

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