WPR Articles 08 Dec 2012 - 14 Dec 2012

North Korea, Iran Highlight Proliferation Risks of Knowledge Transfers

By: Javier Serrat | Briefing

Amid concerns that North Korea might conduct a long-range ballistic missile test as early as this week, reports have surfaced indicating that Iran has permanently stationed staff in North Korea as part of a recent cooperation agreement with Pyongyang. The move highlights the two countries' history of military cooperation, particularly when it comes to exchanges of hardware and designs for ballistic missiles.

In DRC Crisis, Uganda's Museveni Comes Out on Top -- Again

By: Andrew Green | Briefing

Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has emerged as the central mediator of the conflict in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, orchestrating the withdrawal of rebel troops from Goma and hosting peace talks between rebel leaders and the Congolese government. In doing so, Museveni has reaffirmed his position as East Africa’s key power broker, a status that until recently appeared to be slipping.

Strategic Horizons: U.S. Must Change Its Thinking on Conflict in Asia

By: Steven Metz | Column

In early 2012, President Barack Obama and Defense Secretary Leon Panetta issued new strategic guidance to redefine America's defense priorities in the post-Afghanistan era. One of the most important ideas in the document was a renewed emphasis on the Asia-Pacific, with U.S. thinking about potential conflict in the region increasingly focused on China. This is leading American strategy down a dangerous road.

Egypt's Morsi Incompetent, Not Authoritarian

By: Nader Habibi | Briefing

After several weeks of intense protests, Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi on Saturday rescinded a decree that had given him extrajudicial powers. Protesters filling Tahrir Square in response to the decree carryied banners equating Morsi with his dictatorial predecessor, Hosni Mubarak. But by caving in to the protesters, Morsi showed that his main failing is incompetence rather than authoritarianism.  

After Hegemony: America's Global Exit Strategy

By: Kenneth Weisbrode | Briefing

What will America look like in a post-American world? The National Intelligence Council, with its just-released Global 2030 forecast, has become the latest voice to join the chorus of those who see U.S. hegemony giving way to a leading but less-dominant position. What impact will the loss of hegemony have on the way America engages with the world, and how will all this affect the ways Americans live?

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Global Insider: U.K. Assistance Cut Will Have Consequences for Aid-Dependent Rwanda

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In an email interview, Pamela Abbott, the acting director of research at the Institute of Policy Analysis and Research in Rwanda, reviewed the state of development aid to Rwanda.

The Continentalist: Three Plan Bs for U.N.'s Brahimi in Syria

By: Richard Gowan | Column

Does Lakhdar Brahimi have any good options for ending the Syrian war? Unlike his predecessor, Kofi Annan, who tried to mediate a resolution to the conflict under constant media scrutiny, Brahimi has adopted a low profile. But like Annan, he has struggled to bring the regime and rebels together. Brahimi needs to have a range of Plan Bs on hand if the situation starts to spiral out of control quickly.

Sudden Possibility of a Chávez Exit Underlines Venezuela's Institutional Weakness

By: Catherine Cheney | Trend Lines

Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez flew to Cuba on Monday for his fourth cancer surgery after announcing over the weekend that he had designated his vice president, Nicolas Maduro, as his desired political successor.

Global Insights: China Wary but Skeptical of U.S. Pivot to Asia

By: Richard Weitz | Column

In a recent dialogue session at the Chinese Embassy in Washington among Chinese diplomats and American experts on China-U.S. relations, several themes emerged. The most interesting among them was the odd juxtaposition between Chinese policymakers' concern about the Asia pivot with the feeling that Washington will not be able to follow through on the planned strategic rebalancing toward the Asia-Pacific region.

Global Insider: Brazil Attempts to Balance Interests in Growing Oil Revenues

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In an email interview, Fernando Antonio Slaibe Postali, a professor of economics at the University of São Paulo, discussed Brazil’s oil revenue distribution policy.

After Somalia Intervention, Kenya Faces War Within

By: Charles Wachira | Briefing

Widely thought to possess the best military hardware in East Africa but little experience in conventional warfare, the Kenyan military had its moment in the sun after ejecting the al-Shabab terrorist group from neighboring southern Somalia. Now a backlash is in the works, as the region's biggest economy contemplates a homegrown terrorist threat from sympathizers of the al-Qaida-linked group.

World Citizen: U.S. Grapples With Worst-Case Scenarios in Syria

By: Frida Ghitis | Column

Developments in Syria are evidence that the West allowed too much time to pass before using its influence to affect the outcome of the conflict. The possibility that Western efforts could make the situation worse always existed. But the recent scramble to sort out the good from the bad among the rebels seeking to overthrow Syrian President Bashar al-Assad shows just how dangerous the conflict has become.

Kurdish-Rebel Clashes Raise Specter of Interethnic War in Syria

By: Balint Szlanko | Briefing

The fighting between Syrian Arab rebels and a Kurdish militia that broke out in November in the northeastern Syrian town of Ras al-Ayn threatens to open up a chasm beneath a rebellion already charged with sectarian and ethnic overtones. Ras al-Ayn now enjoys a shaky truce, but further fighting could add a new dimension to a war that is already pitting Syria's Sunni Muslims and Alawites against each other.

Mali PM's Resignation Puts Junta Control Back in the Spotlight

By: Catherine Cheney | Trend Lines

Soldiers who carried out a coup in Mali earlier this year ousted Prime Minister Cheick Modibo Diarra on Tuesday, placing Diarra under house arrest and forcing his resignation.

India's Expanded Choices Dilute Once-Privileged Ties With Russia

By: Saurav Jha | Briefing

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent deferral of a planned visit to India encapsulates a bilateral relationship buffeted by shifting global geo-economics but still lucrative for both parties. The postponement reflects the fact that euphemisms such as “strategic partnership” do not automatically translate into preferential treatment in commercial matters in a world driven by interests.

The Realist Prism: U.S. Stance on Eurasian Union Threatens Russia Reset

By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently said the U.S. would seek to counter Russian proposals for creating a Eurasian Union, calling the plan a "move to re-Sovietize the region." Given that the plan is at the heart of Russian President Vladimir Putin's foreign policy platform, it is difficult to see how Washington can oppose it yet retain cooperative relations with Moscow in other areas.

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