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Friday, December 28, 2012

CFR Update 12/27 Syrian Diplomacy Moves to Moscow

Syrian Diplomacy Moves to Moscow
Moscow will host UN special envoy to Syria Lakhdar Brahimi this week in the latest diplomatic push to bring an end to Syria's twenty-one-month old conflict. The high-level visit follows Russian negotiations (Reuters)
with Syrian officials on Thursday. Brahimi, who has disclosed little of his impending trip, met with embattled Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on Monday and plans to hold meetings with other Syrian officials and dissidents this week.
Brahimi and Moscow have both indicated their desire to revive a stalled peace initiative that would have a transitional government run Syria until elections can be held. However, Russia has repeatedly said it will not endorse a plan that calls for Assad's removal (AP)
, and it is unclear whether Brahimi will push to ban members of the regime from participating in any provisional government.
Analysis
"The international community, and its envoy, should declare their failure [in Syria] and pull out of the effort, unless there is a stunning secret piece of information that remains hidden from the public. For now, all of the options appear to involve Assad's remaining in power
, in some shape or form, and everyone knows that the Syrian people will not accept this," write the editors of Lebanon's Daily Star.
"Although the fighting [in Syria] to date has more than demonstrated the lethality of conventional weapons, the use of chemical agents
would represent a significant escalation of the violence with potentially mass casualty consequences. It would also breach an international norm against the use of chemical weapons that is important to maintain," writes CFR's Paul Stares.

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