Mosul and the Limits of State Capacity

• Kirk H. Sowell

Despite the apparent military success in Mosul, the state’s ineffectiveness has driven a reliance on airstrikes and put pressure on Abadi’s government.

• March 30, 2017 |  http://carnegieendowment.org/sada/index.cfm?fa=68464&mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiT0RBM01XWm1NRE13WVdKbCIsInQiOiJlZ3pVa3FEb3B3bHl6U29WRDJIUlVhSVlWeGdubEJtNm9IRkprNHBmY1FWNGllTUkwdmMreFRyczRQbUxoMUFkQnJZbjhwVnl4Nk14eU9XMXNXS01QVHl3VklublF2ekxibkRlTnc2Vlh1VzBYUnRCWjNyXC9wUGlnSjd5TzRybE4ifQ%3D%3D

An American airstrike in Mosul on March 17, which appears to have led to over 200 civilian deaths, has increased attention on civilian casualties and sparked a frenzy within the Iraqi media. This controversy is an additional strain on Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s effort to hold together the coalition against the Islamic State (IS) as he tries to manage the domestic and international aspects of the alliance while facing shortfalls in his government’s military and humanitarian operations.
Parliament’s professional, albeit passionate, debate over the airstrikes on March 28 suggests the coalition will hold. Not only did Minister of Defense Irfan al-Hayali defend Abadi’s reliance on the U.S.-led international coalition, so did Minister of Interior Qasim al-Araji, a senior figure in the pro-Iran Badr Organization. While the killing of civilians in Mosul, Iraq’s largest Sunni-majority city, is quite sensitive, both Sunni and Shia MPs praised the courage of nation’s security forces—although some argued for a tactical change to reduce reliance on heavy artillery criticized for imprecision, including improvised rocket-assisted munitions (IRAMs).