WPR Articles Nov. 29 — Dec. 7

Will the Syrian Crisis Doom the Refugee-Protection Regime, or Save It?

By: Matthew J. Gibney | Feature

The Syrian war has revealed the inadequacy of international responses to refugees and the system in place to protect them. Developed countries often outsource their obligations to poorer nations; 20th-century legal protections do not reflect the contemporary landscape of conflict and displacement.

Germany’s Right-Wing Identity Movements Offer a Cautionary Tale for the U.S.

By: Karina Piser | Trend Lines

In Germany, the emergence of a new right-wing movement has not been limited to the political class. The forces underpinning the rise of the far-right party Alternative for Germany have galvanized grass-roots groups demanding an end to immigration and what they call the Islamization of Germany.

Energy Demands Increasingly Shape China’s Behavior in the South China Sea

By: Sagatom Saha, Quinn Marschik | Briefing

Nationalism and militarization are in part driving China’s aggressive posture in the South China Sea. But leaning too heavily on these explanations conceals a third factor behind Beijing’s maritime claims: a burgeoning energy demand. The U.S. must adapt its own strategy accordingly.

Arab Rulers Are Happy to See Obama Go, but Uncertain About Trump

By: Frida Ghitis | Column

Barack Obama ran for president in 2008 vowing to improve ties with the Arab and Islamic world. In contrast, Donald Trump promised to get tough on Muslims. It’s ironic, then, that Arab capitals are relieved to see Obama leave, and hopeful that Trump will align the U.S. more closely with their concerns.

Brazil’s Indigenous Peoples Seek Full Implementation of Their Formal Rights

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Last week, dozens of indigenous people blocked the entrance to the presidential palace in Brasilia to demand that Brazilian President Michel Temer’s administration respect their rights. In an email interview, Ana Carolina Alfinito Vieira and Luiz Henrique Eloy discuss indigenous rights in Brazil.

Bachelet’s Labor Policy Leaves No One Happy in Chile

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

A month-long strike by Chile’s public sector employees ended earlier this month after workers failed to win a pay increase of 7 percent and instead accepted President Michelle Bachelet’s initial proposal of a 3.2 percent raise. In an email interview, Peter M. Siavelis discusses labor relations in Chile.

How West Africa Became Fertile Ground for AQIM and ISIS

By: Anouar Boukhars | Feature

Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb and its affiliates have expanded their footprint in the Sahel and West Africa, looking to economic hubs and coastal areas that had previously been spared from violence. Unless regional governments and international actors change strategy, instability will likely deepen.

Nigeria Looks to Untapped Mineral Riches to Revive Its Oil-Dependent Economy

By: Matthew C. DuPee | Briefing

Nigeria’s expansive but untapped mineral wealth is no secret. With sagging global oil prices and an ongoing local insurgency in the oil-rich Niger Delta, Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration is moving to develop plans to diversify the economy, with its sights set on the mining sector.

Will the Iran Nuclear Deal Survive Under Trump—and at What Cost?

By: Ellen Laipson | Column

Despite Donald Trump’s tough talk about canceling the Iran nuclear deal during the presidential campaign, it appears he may let the agreement remain in effect. But hostility to Iran seems rampant among his advisers, meaning the spirit of the agreement will likely be violated, with serious costs.

Iran Struggles to Grow Its Economy While Adapting to Climate Change

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Lake Urmia in northwestern Iran has become a symbol of the dangers of climate change, having lost 90 percent of its water since the 1970s. Iran has pledged $5 million for conservation efforts, but it is unclear if the lake can be saved. In an email interview, Gary Lewis discussed Iran’s climate change policy.

Local Governance Vacuums Are at the Heart of Mexico’s Teachers’ Protests

By: Jerónimo Mohar, Benoît Gomis | Briefing

The Mexican state of Michoacan is not only a bastion of drug cartels, but of a dissident teachers’ union vehemently opposed to education reforms. The same conditions that allowed organized crime and vigilante groups to flourish there are providing fertile ground for the teachers’ union to wreak havoc.

The Costs of Uncertainty With Trump’s Trade Policies

By: Kimberly Ann Elliott | Briefing

No matter who was elected president on Nov. 8, there was going to be a pause in U.S. trade policy. Donald Trump said he would go much further than Hillary Clinton, but there is uncertainty about what Trump will actually do once in office. Here is a rundown of key trade issues that Trump will face.

Why Trump’s ‘America First’ Could End Up Getting Left Behind

By: Judah Grunstein | Column

The irony of Fidel Castro’s death is that, in closing the symbolic book on the Cold War, it accentuates the feeling that we are living through the closing moments of the post-Cold War period. A level of uncertainty has been introduced into national, regional and global politics not seen since 1991.

Fragile and Failed States Could Get in the Way of Trump’s “America First” Agenda

By: Connie Veillette | Briefing

President-elect Donald Trump will soon be confronted with global challenges that will test his popular campaign rhetoric of “America First.” Trump’s foreign policy team may find that agenda difficult to implement, since instability and conflict in other parts of the world do not respect state borders.

Political Gains Haven’t Translated to Social Gains for Rwanda’s Women

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Last month, the African Union praised Rwanda for its inclusion of women in government—women make up 64 percent of the lower house of parliament—and encouraged other African countries to follow Rwanda’s lead on gender equality. In an email interview, Pamela Abbott discusses women’s rights in Rwanda.

How Much Damage Will India’s Cash Crisis Do to the Economy, and to Modi?

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

On Nov. 8, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that 500-rupee and 1,000-rupee notes would be withdrawn from circulation, a move designed to tackle corruption that has created chaos and disproportionately affected India’s poor. In an email interview, Jan Breman discusses India’s informal economy.

Populist Fears and Corruption Woes Put the Spotlight on Romania’s Elections

By: Andrew MacDowall | Briefing

Wedged between Central Europe, the Balkans and the former Soviet Union, Romania’s strategic importance is often overlooked. Parliamentary election on Dec. 5 may not change its pro-U.S. and pro-EU alignment, despite concerns about waning U.S. interest and risks to independent institutions.

The Risks of a Trump Administration Dominated by Former Military Officers

By: Steven Metz | Column

Appointing military officers to a presidential administration is an American tradition. In the past, though, it has been the exception rather than the norm. That may be changing, with Donald Trump considering an unprecedented number of former officers for Cabinet positions. Is this a cause for concern?

West Africa in the Crosshairs of AQIM and ISIS

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In this week’s Trend Lines podcast, WPR’s editor-in-chief, Judah Grunstein, and senior editor, Frederick Deknatel, discuss Fidel Castro’s death and the implications for reform in Cuba and ties with the U.S. For the Report, Anouar Boukhars talks with Peter Dörrie about militancy in West Africa.

Guatemala Struggles to Protect Women Against Endemic Violence

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Guatemala banned child marriage last year, but the practice continues. With an extended drought exacerbating poverty across the country, many poor families see daughters as a financial burden and marry them to pay off debts. In an email interview, Serena Cosgrove discusses women’s rights in Guatemala.

What Future Does Nuclear Power Have in an Era of Cheap Energy?

By: Miles Pomper | Briefing

Two decades ago, nuclear energy provided the power for nearly one-fifth of the world’s electricity. Now it generates only about half that share. Nuclear energy would be facing strong headwinds even if Japan’s Fukushima accident had not occurred in 2011, because of the market forces of supply and demand.

Will Trump Regret Backing China Into a Corner on Taiwan and the South China Sea?

By: Richard Gowan | Column

Donald Trump has a knack for simplifying complex international problems. For years, for example, scholars have debated whether China will be a constructive or disruptive global power. Many have argued that it could take decades to find out. Thanks to Trump, we could know the answer in just a few months.

Britain’s May Eyes the GCC as a Surer Bet for Trade Ties After Brexit

By: Kristian Coates Ulrichsen | Briefing

British Prime Minister Theresa May is in Bahrain to meet with Gulf leaders on the sidelines of the annual Gulf Cooperation Council Summit. With political uncertainty over Britain’s future relations with Europe and its place in the world after Brexit, British ministers have zeroed in on the GCC.

Despite EU Concerns Over Its Illiberal Turn, Poland Is Far From Isolated

By: Maria Savel | Trend Lines

Poland’s illiberal turn, including a constitutional court crisis and tightening government control over state media, has sparked condemnation from the EU and European capitals. But Poland is far from isolated and more than comfortable calling Brussels’ bluff on sanctions for rule-of-law violations.

What’s Behind Jammeh’s Perplexing Decision to Accept Gambia’s Election Results?

By: Alex Thurston | Briefing

In a stunning upset, opposition candidate Adama Barrow defeated Gambia’s long-time dictator, Yahya Jammeh, in the country’s presidential election last week. Jammeh likely could have won if he wanted to, by manipulating the results. But it seems he calculated that the cost of victory would be too great.

Why Trump’s Taiwan Call Might Be the Least of Traditional Diplomacy’s Worries

By: Ellen Laipson | Column

The buzz in foreign policy circles this week has been over President-elect Donald Trump’s phone conversation with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, overturning decades of diplomatic protocol. But if U.S. diplomacy has lost some of its sheen, it is not only the result of Trump’s iconoclastic approach.

Has the EU Won the Battle Over Austerity Only to Lose the War?

By: Judah Grunstein | Column

The next time they meet, Matteo Renzi, the soon-to-be former Italian premier, and Francois Hollande, the lame duck French president, will probably take a moment to console each other for their recent misfortunes. Afterward, they might spend some time trying to figure out where things all went wrong.

How Global Shifts Are Putting Costa Rica’s Economic Model Under Stress

By: Robert Looney | Briefing

For years, Costa Rica has been a Latin American success story. The country’s democratic institutions and attention to good governance have enabled its resource-poor economy to thrive in a dangerous part of the world. But several trends point to the diminishing effectiveness of Costa Rica’s economic model.