WPR Articles Nov. 23 — Dec. 2

The Risks of a Trump Administration Dominated by Former Military Officers

By: Steven Metz | Column

Appointing military officers to a presidential administration is an American tradition. In the past, though, it has been the exception rather than the norm. That may be changing, with Donald Trump considering an unprecedented number of former officers for Cabinet positions. Is this a cause for concern?

Bachelet’s Labor Policy Leaves No One Happy in Chile

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

A month-long strike by Chile’s public sector employees ended earlier this month after workers failed to win a pay increase of 7 percent and instead accepted President Michelle Bachelet’s initial proposal of a 3.2 percent raise. In an email interview, Peter M. Siavelis discusses labor relations in Chile.

Energy Demands Increasingly Shape China’s Behavior in the South China Sea

By: Sagatom Saha, Quinn Marschik | Briefing

Nationalism and militarization are in part driving China’s aggressive posture in the South China Sea. But leaning too heavily on these explanations conceals a third factor behind Beijing’s maritime claims: a burgeoning energy demand. The U.S. must adapt its own strategy accordingly.

Iran Struggles to Grow Its Economy While Adapting to Climate Change

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Lake Urmia in northwestern Iran has become a symbol of the dangers of climate change, having lost 90 percent of its water since the 1970s. Iran has pledged $5 million for conservation efforts, but it is unclear if the lake can be saved. In an email interview, Gary Lewis discussed Iran’s climate change policy.

Fragile and Failed States Could Get in the Way of Trump’s “America First” Agenda

By: Connie Veillette | Briefing

President-elect Donald Trump will soon be confronted with global challenges that will test his popular campaign rhetoric of “America First.” Trump’s foreign policy team may find that agenda difficult to implement, since instability and conflict in other parts of the world do not respect state borders.

Can Cooler Heads Prevail in the South China Sea?

By: Prashanth Parameswaran | Briefing

Since an international tribunal ruled in July that China’s claims to the South China Sea lacked legal basis, key actors have tried to ease tensions. Despite progress, translating these gains into sustainable solutions for the disagreements between China and five other claimants will prove difficult.

In India, Women’s Issues Make Headlines, but Not Progress

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

India’s minister for women recently declared that the country’s rape problem was exaggerated, and that the Indian media’s overemphasis on rape was negatively affecting tourism. In an email interview, Nandita Bhatla, of the International Center for Research on Women, discusses women’s rights in India.

The Battle to Repair Iraq’s Social Fabric, Beyond Mosul’s Front Lines

By: Matthew Schweitzer | Briefing

With international attention focused on the battle for Mosul, there is an ongoing crisis on a forgotten battlefield in another part of northern Iraq. Predominantly Sunni towns like Hawija are a test for whether Iraq’s government and its proxies can mend ties and calm sectarian tensions.

To Counter Populism, Start by Taking Globalization’s Discontents Seriously

By: Judah Grunstein | Column

The U.S. presidential election offered a clear example of how emotion and affect increasingly drive political behavior. But now that the shock of Donald Trump’s victory has worn off, resolve, and not despair, must be the order of the day for those who would seek to shore up the liberal international order.

Can South Africa’s ANC Survive Zuma’s Culture of Corruption?

By: James Hamill | Briefing

Even by the standards of his corrupt and largely disgraced presidency, the past month in South Africa has represented a nadir for Jacob Zuma. Has this notorious survivor finally run out of time? The ruling African National Congress, split between rival factions, finds itself in a no-win position.

Can Trump Calm European Nerves Over His Election?

By: Magnus Nordenman | Briefing

The surprise election of Donald Trump as America’s 45th president has upset long-standing assumptions about America’s role in the world. America’s European friends and allies are among those most worried about the future U.S. role in Europe, at a time when the continent is surrounded by instability.

Vulnerable to Climate Change, Costa Rica Works to Become a Carbon-Free Economy

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Last month, Costa Rica ratified the Paris Agreement. After the vote, the environment minister said, “Costa Rica showed the world that it has the courage to take bold and timely decisions to work for a sustainable development.” In an interview, Mariel Yglesias discusses Costa Rica’s climate change policy.

Will the U.N. Post Make Nikki Haley Wish She Was Back in South Carolina?

By: Richard Gowan | Column

U.N. officials who feared that Donald Trump would nominate a unilateralist firebrand as ambassador hope that Nikki Haley is someone they can do business with. But if she struggles, it may not be due to her lack of foreign policy experience, but because of flaws in both the U.S. and U.N. systems.

How West Africa Became Fertile Ground for AQIM and ISIS

By: Anouar Boukhars | Feature

Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb and its affiliates have expanded their footprint in the Sahel and West Africa, looking to economic hubs and coastal areas that had previously been spared from violence. Unless regional governments and international actors change strategy, instability will likely deepen.

Nigeria Looks to Untapped Mineral Riches to Revive Its Oil-Dependent Economy

By: Matthew C. DuPee | Briefing

Nigeria’s expansive but untapped mineral wealth is no secret. With sagging global oil prices and an ongoing local insurgency in the oil-rich Niger Delta, Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration is moving to develop plans to diversify the economy, with its sights set on the mining sector.

Will the Iran Nuclear Deal Survive Under Trump—and at What Cost?

By: Ellen Laipson | Column

Despite Donald Trump’s tough talk about canceling the Iran nuclear deal during the presidential campaign, it appears he may let the agreement remain in effect. But hostility to Iran seems rampant among his advisers, meaning the spirit of the agreement will likely be violated, with serious costs.

Local Governance Vacuums Are at the Heart of Mexico’s Teachers’ Protests

By: Jerónimo Mohar, Benoît Gomis | Briefing

The Mexican state of Michoacan is not only a bastion of drug cartels, but of a dissident teachers’ union vehemently opposed to education reforms. The same conditions that allowed organized crime and vigilante groups to flourish there are providing fertile ground for the teachers’ union to wreak havoc.

The Costs of Uncertainty With Trump’s Trade Policies

By: Kimberly Ann Elliott | Briefing

No matter who was elected president on Nov. 8, there was going to be a pause in U.S. trade policy. Donald Trump said he would go much further than Hillary Clinton, but there is uncertainty about what Trump will actually do once in office. Here is a rundown of key trade issues that Trump will face.

Why Trump’s ‘America First’ Could End Up Getting Left Behind

By: Judah Grunstein | Column

The irony of Fidel Castro’s death is that, in closing the symbolic book on the Cold War, it accentuates the feeling that we are living through the closing moments of the post-Cold War period. A level of uncertainty has been introduced into national, regional and global politics not seen since 1991.

Arab Rulers Are Happy to See Obama Go, but Uncertain About Trump

By: Frida Ghitis | Column

Barack Obama ran for president in 2008 vowing to improve ties with the Arab and Islamic world. In contrast, Donald Trump promised to get tough on Muslims. It’s ironic, then, that Arab capitals are relieved to see Obama leave, and hopeful that Trump will align the U.S. more closely with their concerns.

Political Gains Haven’t Translated to Social Gains for Rwanda’s Women

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Last month, the African Union praised Rwanda for its inclusion of women in government—women make up 64 percent of the lower house of parliament—and encouraged other African countries to follow Rwanda’s lead on gender equality. In an email interview, Pamela Abbott discusses women’s rights in Rwanda.

Germany’s Right-Wing Identity Movements Offer a Cautionary Tale for the U.S.

By: Karina Piser | Trend Lines

In Germany, the emergence of a new right-wing movement has not been limited to the political class. The forces underpinning the rise of the far-right party Alternative for Germany have galvanized grass-roots groups demanding an end to immigration and what they call the Islamization of Germany.

How Much Damage Will India’s Cash Crisis Do to the Economy, and to Modi?

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

On Nov. 8, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that 500-rupee and 1,000-rupee notes would be withdrawn from circulation, a move designed to tackle corruption that has created chaos and disproportionately affected India’s poor. In an email interview, Jan Breman discusses India’s informal economy.

Populist Fears and Corruption Woes Put the Spotlight on Romania’s Elections

By: Andrew MacDowall | Briefing

Wedged between Central Europe, the Balkans and the former Soviet Union, Romania’s strategic importance is often overlooked. Parliamentary election on Dec. 5 may not change its pro-U.S. and pro-EU alignment, despite concerns about waning U.S. interest and risks to independent institutions.

West Africa in the Crosshairs of AQIM and ISIS

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In this week’s Trend Lines podcast, WPR’s editor-in-chief, Judah Grunstein, and senior editor, Frederick Deknatel, discuss Fidel Castro’s death and the implications for reform in Cuba and ties with the U.S. For the Report, Anouar Boukhars talks with Peter Dörrie about militancy in West Africa.