WPR Articles July 28 — Aug. 3

Corruption Scandal and Coup Rumors Put Pakistan’s Sharif on the Hot Seat

By: Arif Rafiq | Briefing

Last month, posters lining streets across Pakistan beckoned the country’s popular army chief, Gen. Raheel Sharif, to take over in a coup. The posters have since been taken down, and the man responsible for them arrested. But the question still remains: Is the Pakistani military poised to take over?

Venezuelan Contagion Hits Cuba’s Economy, Putting Reforms in Jeopardy

By: William M. LeoGrande | Briefing

Shock waves from Venezuela’s economic collapse have finally reached Cuba. They are forcing drastic cuts in energy consumption, slashing economic growth, and raising fears of another “Special Period”—the catastrophic economic decline that followed the collapse of Cuba’s previous patron, the Soviet Union.

Will Kabila’s Third-Term Ambitions Throw Congo Back Into Chaos?

By: Peter Dörrie, Simone Schlindwein | Feature

The Democratic Republic of Congo has made political and security progress since war ended in 2003, but President Joseph Kabila, like many of his regional counterparts, is trying to extend his term beyond the constitutional limit. That could lead to a domestic crisis, undermining regional stability.

It’s Time to Start Preparing for the Challenges of Climate-Driven Migration

By: Ellen Laipson | Column

Climate-driven migration will likely affect millions of people in coming decades, adding to displacement from war and instability. States and international organizations will need to dedicate additional resources to climate migrants, but they can begin by integrating support into current responses.

With New Approach, Can the U.S. Get Counter-Radicalization Right?

By: Karina Piser | Trend Lines

Attacks from Orlando to Nice to Bangladesh have left many wondering what compels an individual, whether a low-level criminal or a student at an elite private school, to massacre civilians in the name of the Islamic State or another extremist group. Even more confounding is how to stop them.

Europe’s Crises Force Reluctant Germany to Accept Its Leadership Role

By: Maria Savel | Trend Lines

Since the eurozone crisis began in 2009, the European Union has faced a nonstop string of crises. Throughout each one, Germany has found itself leading the bloc to a response. But its leadership hasn’t always been welcome, and Germany’s own relationship with its role in Europe is complicated.

Expect Big Changes in Russia Policy if Trump Becomes U.S. President

By: Frida Ghitis | Column

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump shocked the U.S. foreign policy establishment last week when he declared he might not defend NATO members from a Russian invasion if they hadn’t paid their dues. But when it comes to the Atlantic alliance, Trump’s misgivings go beyond dollars and cents.

What the Three Main Narratives About the South China Sea Ruling Ignore

By: Fabio Scarpello | Briefing

An international tribunal’s ruling earlier this month in favor of the Philippines in its dispute with China over islands in the South China Sea has spurred a wealth of commentary, forecasts and questions. Three main narratives have emerged about China and the liberal order, but they don’t explain everything.

Can the U.S. Counter Terrorism’s Shift to Decentralized and Random Violence?

By: Steven Metz | Column

Though barely half over, 2016 has already turned into a bloody year of terrorism. What is concerning is not simply the extent of this violence but the ongoing mutation of terrorism into new forms. Attacks that are inspired but not directly controlled by terrorist networks are today’s growth industry.

Energy Policy Is Key to Kuczynski’s Economic Plans in Peru

By: Jeremy Martin | Briefing

After a rollicking election, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski took office as Peru’s new president yesterday. To fulfill his broad economic pledges—mainly, to maintain market-friendly policies while reducing poverty—his administration will need to move quickly on several issues, especially the energy sector.

Indonesia Sets Ambitious Emissions Targets to Fight Climate Change

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Earlier this year, Indonesia called on the palm oil sector to play a larger role in the fight against climate change, including by stopping its slash-and-burn deforestation practices. In an email interview, T. Nirarta Samadhi of the World Resources Institute discusses Indonesia’s response to climate change.

Is a U.S. Move to Accept More Central American Refugees Too Little, Too Late?

By: Frederick Deknatel | Trend Lines

On Tuesday, the Obama administration announced the expansion of a program to admit refugees from Central America into the United States. Observers had criticized it as inadequate amid an exodus of people, many of them children, fleeing violence and poverty in El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras.

Will the Syria Conflict Leave Hezbollah Stronger for ‘Inevitable’ Next War With Israel?

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In this week’s Trend Lines podcast, WPR’s editor-in-chief, Judah Grunstein, and host Peter Dörrie discuss the potential for conflict between the U.S and Russia, al-Shabab’s resilience, and unrest in Kashmir. For the Report, Nicholas Blanford talks about the effect of the Syria conflict on Hezbollah.

Ideological Differences Limit U.S.-China Counterterrorism Cooperation

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

U.S. National Security Adviser Susan Rice visited China last month, where she held talks with Chinese officials about prospects for improving bilateral counterterrorism cooperation. In an email interview, Jeffrey Payne discusses the state of counterterrorism cooperation between the U.S. and China.

The U.N. Faces Existential Tests in Aleppo and South Sudan

By: Richard Gowan | Column

The U.N. is constantly embroiled in brutal conflicts, but some do it vastly more political harm than others. The organization has never fully recovered from its failure to prevent the Rwandan genocide and Srebrenica massacre. The current crises in South Sudan and Syria may do it equally severe damage.

Terror Attacks Test Lebanon’s Welcome for Syrian Refugees

By: Samya Kullab | Briefing

In late June, terrorist attacks in the Lebanese town of al-Qaa targeted a predominantly Christian community with no links to the Lebanese groups active militarily in Syria. Lebanon’s massive Syrian refugee population has since faced an unprecedented number of raids, evictions and new restrictions.

Under Trudeau, Canada Goes From Absent to Fully Engaged on Climate Change

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in an interview that imposing a “strong” price on carbon is an “essential element” of his climate change policy. In an email interview, Amin Asadollahi of the International Institute for Sustainable Development discusses Canada’s response to climate change.

Political Generals: Why Convention Speeches Are Not the Real Problem

By: Michael A. Cohen | Column

At both the Democratic National Convention last week and the Republican National Convention before it, sharply partisan speeches by retired generals blurred the line between domestic politics and military service. The challenge, however, is in understanding where that line should lie.