Forget Hillary the hawk: How a Clinton foreign policy is likely to play out

Hugh White

26 August 2016 | The Lowy Interpreter | http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2016/08/26/Forget-Hillary-the-hawk-How-a-Clinton-foreign-policy-is-likely-to-play-out.aspx

It seems that Trump’s lousy polling and chaotic campaign mean Clinton will win in November. Most assume we can then relax: we know Hillary Clinton from her time at State, and she will be reassuringly orthodox – more orthodox indeed than Barack Obama. US foreign policy will be back to ‘normal’: a strong military, robust alliances, free trade and decisive interventions wherever the US-led global order is challenged.
Well, maybe, but don’t bet on it. Predictions of the kind I’m about to make are inherently fallible, but there do seem good reasons to question our confidence here. The 2016 Presidential campaign has changed the landscape of US politics in ways that will resonate long after November, and impose big new pressures and constraints on Clinton’s approach to many issues, including foreign policy. We can see how these pressures will work if we put ourselves in Clinton’s shoes and reflect on what will most likely be her top priority from the moment she becomes President: re-election for a second term in 2020. http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2016/08/26/Forget-Hillary-the-hawk-How-a-Clinton-foreign-policy-is-likely-to-play-out.aspx