Poker in the Paracels

Hugh White For The Straits Times

Feb 27, 2016 | http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/poker-in-the-paracels

There comes a time in every poker game when you have to decide whether the other guy is bluffing, or whether he really does hold a stronger hand than you do. If he does, it's time to stop raising the stakes because from that moment on, you are only increasing your losses. Instead, you should say goodbye to your bet and bow out gracefully, hoping for a chance to play again another time, with better cards.
The news last week that China has deployed advanced, long-range surface to air missiles (SAMs) to Woody Island in the disputed Paracels marks the point at which US policymakers need to make this call about their game with China in the South China Sea. They ought to be asking themselves how sure they should now be that American diplomatic pressure, backed by low-risk symbolic military manoeuvres, will force China to back off from the provocative assertion of its claims over contested features and waters in the South China Sea.http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/poker-in-the-paracels