Building on the Syrian Truce by Paul R. Pillar

http://lobelog.com/building-on-the-syrian-truce/#more-33265

Building on the Syrian Truce

by Paul R. Pillar
A common reaction to the first couple of days of the partial cessation of hostilities in Syrian civil war was surprise at how well the truce had held up so far. There earlier had been ample grounds for pessimism about whether any cease-fire in this very messy conflict would take hold at all. But if the pessimism at this admittedly early stage of the truce has been shown to be excessive, this probably is partly due to insufficient appreciation, among armchair strategists elsewhere who are willing to continue the fight to the last Syrian moderate, of the war weariness of many of those actually fighting the war. Another probable reason is misperception of Russian motives and misjudgment of how much leverage over the Assad regime Russia’s substantial effort on its behalf has given Moscow.
Somewhat similar misperceptions undoubtedly apply as well to the Syrian regime’s other major backer, Iran. The conventional belief about Iran supposedly being bent on destabilizing the region is bound to involve misperception when Iran instead is, as it has been doing in Syria, trying to defend an incumbent regime and the status quo. (Iran reportedly is now withdrawing most of the troops it had in Syria.)http://lobelog.com/building-on-the-syrian-truce/#more-33265