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Friday, June 19, 2015

CFR Update: EU Calls Emergency Summit on Greece as Talks Stall


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TOP OF THE AGENDA
EU Calls Emergency Summit on Greece as Talks Stall
Leaders of the European Union will meet for an emergency summit (EU Observer) on Monday following failed talks to negotiate an aid-for-reforms deal with Greece on Thursday. The European Central Bank is also holding an emergency meeting on Friday to decide whether to increase its liquidity funding (NYT) to Greece as it faces possible default. Greece has withdrawn (FT) over 3 billion euros from its banks this week. Meanwhile, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras will meet (Guardian) with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday, a day after the countries' energy ministers signed a deal to advance the Turkish Stream pipeline project.
ANALYSIS
"[Greece] is a member of NATO. It might remain a member of the European Union. And it sits in a troubled part of the world: at the crossroads of the Balkans, North Africa, and Turkey. For all these reasons, the idea that a Greek meltdown won't cause blowback for outsiders seems fanciful in the extreme. If there is one lesson from the past fifteen years of geopolitics, it is surely that weak states can affect Western interests powerfully," writes CFR's Sebastian Mallaby in an Expert Brief.
"If Greece were to accept the deal, Europe would need to provide additional debt relief to make the numbers add up, a point recently emphasized by the IMF. Tough decisions are called for on both sides, and the prospect for bridging this gap is looking increasingly remote. While the temptation thus exists to buy time by extending the current program, trading cash for partial reforms, and putting off negotiations on a third bailout until the fall, it is a 'bridge to nowhere' if it doesn't put Greece on a credible path back to sustainable growth," writes CFR's Robert Kahn in a recent blog post.
"Ms. Merkel sees herself as the guardian of European unity, the more so since Francois Hollande's French government has retreated from the shared leadership role that once conjured up the metaphor of the Franco-German motor. Greece's departure would be a historic failure; an admission of the fragility of the European enterprise and a signal to the world that the process of integrations could yet unravel," writes Philip S

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