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Thursday, February 19, 2015

CFR Update: Top of the Agenda Ukraine Calls for International Peacekeepers

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Council on Foreign Relations Daily News Brief
February 19, 2015

Top of the Agenda

Ukraine Calls for International Peacekeepers
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko requested that EU and UN peacekeepers (FT) be deployed to eastern Ukraine as the recently renewed cease-fire between government forces and pro-Russia rebels disintegrates. The EU pledged (AP) to provide armored vehicles and satellite imagery, and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe committed an additional four hundred observers to monitor the cease-fire. The strategic transport hub of Debaltseve fell to pro-Russia separatists on Wednesday after thousands of Ukrainian government troops withdrew from the embattled city. Despite efforts (Deutsche Welle) by French, German, Russian, and Ukrainian leaders to salvage the week-old truce, fighting continues. Russia denies any role in breaching the cease-fire and said that sending EU troops to Ukraine would be a violation of the Minsk agreement.

Analysis

"Given the West’s weakness, more aggression seems likely. But, for now, Mr. Putin has reason to preen. The takeover of Debaltseve will go a long way to consolidate the breakaway puppet state he is building in eastern Ukraine. Under the terms of the deal accepted by the West, Moscow need not allow Ukraine to control its own border with Russia unless and until it agrees to a delegation of power to the Russian entity that satisfies Mr. Putin," writes the Washington Post.
"A year of talks and failed agreements has demonstrated that there is no purely diplomatic solution either. Only by eliminating—or at least seriously diminishing—the potential for the separatists and their Russian backers to continue their military campaign can Ukraine and its partners hope for a lasting political solution," argues Carl Bildt at Project Syndicate. 
"Greater help for Ukraine, on the other hand, would not hurt Russia and would have only positive consequences for both the Ukrainian and the European economies. Economic relations within and with a prosperous western Ukraine might also help in time to soften the antagonism between nationalists and separatists and make President Vladimir Putin rethink his regional ambitions," urges the Guardian.

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