CFR Update 2/25 Russia-Ukraine Gas Crisis Resurfaces

Top of the Agenda Russia-Ukraine Gas Crisis Resurfaces Russian energy giant Gazprom threatened (NYT) to cut off gas supplies to Ukraine within two days over a payment dispute. Meanwhile, the UK announced it would send a small group of military personnel to provide training to government forces, and a U.S. military official said the Pentagon would send between five and ten troops to Ukraine to offer medical training (AP). Ukraine's central bank banned (WSJ) the purchase of foreign currency, citing a struggling currency, and President Petro Poroshenko announced a deal with the United Arab Emirates to buy defensive weapons (Defense News). Separately, Lithuania is set to reintroduce conscription (BBC), citing concerns about the current geopolitical climate, though not explicitly referencing developments in Ukraine. Analysis "This war is not a land grab, and it is not a war about specific leaders. What is being decided in Ukraine—the largest country in Europe—is whether the post-Soviet space will be allowed to free itself from a vicious cycle of inefficiency, corruption, violence and failed governments to build instead modern, open, democratic societies," argues former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili at the Washington Post. "If the current president and prime minister lose their grip on power, the right wing and the military, unhappy with their commanders and political leaders and angered by recent defeats at the hands of pro-Russian rebels, are the likeliest force to make a bid for dominance. That's a big reason to wish Ukraine's current leaders success," writes Leonid Bershidsky for Bloomberg View. "Putin is not fighting for control over a few economically depressed areas of the Donbass. He is fighting for the right to sit at the same table with the 'great powers' where they redraw national borders," writes Alexander Golts at the Moscow Times. PACIFIC RIM Seoul Says DPRK's Next Possible Nuclear Test Will Be Powerful South Korean intelligence authorities said on Wednesday that Pyongyang's next possible nuclear test is forecast (Yonhap) to be more powerful in both scale and yield than its three previous test explosions. Meanwhile, a U.S. study found that North Korea's nuclear stockpile could increase (Korea Herald) to one hundred weapons by 2020; Pyongyang is currently believed to have ten to sixteen nuclear weapons. MYANMAR: The leader of the Kokang rebel group denied (Irrawaddy) receiving assistance from Chinese mercenaries, as fighting between Kokang rebels and the Myanmar government rages on. The Myanmar government has accused Chinese fighters of facilitating rebel attacks from across the China-Myanmar border. Clashes, which began earlier this month, have sent thousands of refugees to China and other areas in Burma. CFR's Joshua Kurlantzick discusses Myanmar's peace process in this blog post.  SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA REPORT: Torture Wanes in Afghanistan, but Still Widespread The use of torture by police and intelligence personnel is on the decline (UN News) in Afghanistan, but continues to be widespread, according to a report published on Wednesday by the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan. The report says that at least one-third of Afghans detained on conflict-related allegations were ill-treated or tortured between February 2013 and December 2014. BANGLADESH: A judge in Dhaka issued (PTI) a warrant for the arrest of former Prime Minister and opposition leader Khaleda Zia after she failed to appear in court in connection to a corruption case. The warrant comes as Zia's party continues a standoff with Bangladesh's ruling party that has sparked violent political unrest. MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Houthis Seize Special Forces Base Armed Houthis took over (Reuters) a special forces training based in Sana'a on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the head of the Gulf Council visited (AP) President Adb-Rabbu Mansour Hadi in the southern city of Aden on Wednesday, according to Yemeni officials. Yemen faces a deepening power struggle as Hadi withdrew his previous resignation, and as the Houthis expand their area of control. IRAQ: ISIS militants kidnapped (Al Jazeera) more than one hundred Iraqi men and boys on Monday near Tikrit, according to a local sheikh. The news follows reports that ISIS abducted of dozens of Assyrian Christians in northeastern Syria. Meanwhile a wave of bombings in Baghdad killed (BBC) thirty-seven people and injured many others on Tuesday. No one has claimed responsibility, but ISIS has claimed other recent attacks. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Chad Army Kills Scores of Boko Haram Militants Chadian soldiers killed (Reuters) 207 Boko Haram militants in the Nigerian town of Gambaru near the Cameroon border on Tuesday, according to an official statement. Chad, Cameroon, and Niger have launched a regional military campaign to fight the Boko Haram insurgency. Meanwhile Nigerian President Jonathan Goodluck said that the tide has turned (PM News) against Boko Haram. CFR's John Campbell debates ties between ISIS and Boko Haram in this blog post. DRC: The Congolese military launched an offensive (VOA) on Tuesday against Rwandan Hutu rebels based in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. The DRC promised an offensive after the rebels failed to meet a January 2 deadline to disarm.  EUROPE Eurozone Approves Greek Reform Plan Eurozone finance ministers approved (EU Observer) Greece's reform plans on Tuesday, paving the way for a four-month extension of the country's bailout program. However, IMF managing director, Christine Lagarde, and others expressed doubts (WSJ) over Athens' willingness to implement tough reforms. This CFR Backgrounder chronicles the eurozone crisis. AMERICAS Obama Vetoes Keystone Pipeline U.S. President Barack Obama issued his third presidential veto (WaPo), rejecting the bill approving the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline on Tuesday.   VENEZUELA: A teenage student was shot dead (Merco Press) during clashes between police and protesters in Venezuela's western Tachira state. The death is expected to heighten tensions amid a deepening economic crisis and a crackdown on political opposition. This CFR Backgrounder explores Venezuela's economic challenges. Connect with CFR Facebook Twitter YouTube Mobile Join the conversation at cfr.org/blogs»