WPR Articles Jan. 5, 2015 - Jan. 9, 2015

Navalny Sentencing Exposes the Kremlin’s Weakness: Corruption

By: David Klion | Trend Lines

Just before Russians rang in the new year, opposition activist Alexei Navalny received a three-and-a-half-year suspended sentence for alleged fraud, while his younger brother Oleg faces imprisonment. Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to silence the elder Navalny without making him a martyr.

In Reversal of History, Emerging Countries Buy Up European Assets

By: Emanuele Scimia | Briefing

In a reversal of historical trends, emerging countries are buying into portions of Europe’s economy, often in countries that were once their colonial rulers. Most striking is that not only economic powerhouses, but also lower-profile nations are criss-crossing Europe on an industrial shopping spree.

Gulf-Backed Regional Status Quo Restored With Egypt-Qatar Thaw

By: Frederick Deknatel | Trend Lines

Last month, Qatar shut down a pro-Islamist satellite news channel highly critical of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi. With el-Sissi’s Gulf backers having convinced Qatar to reconcile, a regional status quo that appeared to crumble with the uprisings of 2011 continues to be put back together.

Failed Gambia Coup Casts a Spotlight on Jammeh’s Abusive Regime

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Gambia has accused the former head of the presidential guard of leading a small coup attempt that two U.S. citizens were also involved in. In an interview, Jeffrey Smith, an advocacy officer at the Robert F. Kennedy Center for Justice and Human Rights, discussed Gambian politics and the coup attempt.

U.S. Deterrent Not Up to Today’s Complex Security Environment

By: Steven Metz | Column

When the Soviet Union fielded nuclear weapons during the opening years of the Cold War, deterrence quickly became the centerpiece of U.S. military strategy. But the current confrontation with Russia underscores the limitations of the old notion of deterrence in today’s security environment.

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Can Ukraine, Syria Impasses Drive U.S.-Russia ‘Grand Climb-Down’?

By: Richard Gowan | Column

When diplomats seek a way out of a crisis, they like to talk about “grand bargains” and avoid the word “climb-down,” which implies failure or defeat. Nevertheless, Russia and the U.S. may need a “grand climb-down” over Syria and Ukraine to get out of unsustainable positions as painlessly as possible.

Despite Zimbabwe Purge, Mugabe Succession Still Far From Certain

By: James Hamill | Briefing

Open feuding within Zimbabwe’s ruling party, ZANU-PF, handed Justice Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa the advantage in the race to succeed President Robert Mugabe. With a key rival apparently neutralized, the question is whether Mnangagwa’s alliance with Mugabe’s wife, Grace, will hold.

After Ukraine, Putin’s Eurasian Union Could Be Dead on Arrival

By: Richard Weitz | Column

Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s flagship geopolitical project, the Eurasian Union, formally came into existence. Putin, a well-known fan of the Soviet Union, wants Moscow to lead another multinational bloc of subordinate states. But the past year has not been kind to his dream.

FATA: The Never-Ending War on Pakistan’s Periphery

By: Asad Hashim | Feature

The recent attack on a school in Peshawar, and the Pakistani government’s response, sum up life in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA)—a frontier region on the edge of Pakistan that has been overtaken by militants, the military and the struggle to survive in the tiny space between them.

Sweden’s Political Crisis Ends With Anti-Immigration Party Sidelined

By: Maria Savel | Trend Lines

To end a political crisis caused by proposed government spending on immigration, Sweden’s ruling Social Democrat and Green Party coalition struck a deal with four center-right parties that allows minority governments to rule more effectively, while sidelining the populist Sweden Democrat party.

For Obama, It’s Now or Never to Define His Legacy

By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column

As he returns from his holiday and prepares for his last two years in office, U.S. President Barack Obama must look for signature “legacy” issues that will help to define his administration, while also assessing which questions can be delayed or postponed for the next president to deal with.

Naval Ties, Economic Interests Drive India’s Outreach to Oman

By: Saurav Jha | Briefing

When Oman’s foreign minister made two visits to India last year, it became the first GCC member to commence high-level engagement with the new government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The visits were also a signal that Oman continues to be India’s closest strategic partner in the Persian Gulf.

Qatar-Egypt Reconciliation a Defeat for the Muslim Brotherhood

By: Frida Ghitis | Column

A Middle Eastern mystery is finally being unraveled, and what is emerging looks like one more disaster for the Muslim Brotherhood. After years of funding the Islamist organization, Qatar’s recent diplomatic outreach to Egypt indicates that its support for the Brotherhood may be coming to an end.

Tunisia’s Elections Seal Transition, Raise Fears of Old Regime

By: Ibrahim Sharqieh | Briefing

On paper, Tunisia has completed its democratic transition. Yet many Tunisians are asking if their newly elected president, Beji Caid Essebsi, represents a return of the old regime. The rise of the Nedaa Tunis party is not necessarily a counterrevolution, but such fears are valid and cannot be ignored.

As Shock Fades, France Must Balance Response to Charlie Hebdo Attack

By: Judah Grunstein | Trend Lines

PARIS—With Wednesday’s brutal attack against Charlie Hebdo, France’s period of complacency in the fight against terrorism is over. Now, as the initial shock of the attack begins to fade, France will have to modulate its response on four fronts in order to effectively address the threat it faces.

Essebsi Must Work With Islamists to Ensure Tunisia’s Transition

By: Ibrahim Sharqieh | Briefing

Despite Tunisia’s success navigating its transition, the challenges of keeping it sustainable remain enormous. President Beji Caid Essebsi will not be able to fix the economy or deal with polarization alone; he needs to reach out to other political players in Tunisia—most of all, his rivals in Ennahda.