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Thursday, January 22, 2015

CFR Update 1/22 Top of the Agenda Cease-Fire Crumbles in Eastern Ukraine

Top of the Agenda

Cease-Fire Crumbles in Eastern Ukraine
At least eight civilians were killed (Reuters) after a mortar shell fell in a residential area in the eastern city of Donetsk on Thursday, just hours after the foreign ministers of Ukraine, Russia, Germany, and France met and produced an agreement (WSJ) on a "buffer zone" to separate the warring factions. While neither side claimed the attack, fighting has intensified in recent days as pro-Russia separatists dislodged Ukrainian forces from the strategically important Donetsk airport (Guardian) Wednesday night and launched a new offensive in Luhansk (NYT). Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, speaking to the World Economic Forum in Davos, said that some nine thousand Russian troops were currently stationed (BBC) in Ukraine, a charge that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov denied.

Analysis

"As we have learned from the past year, in Ukraine, Russia is willing to do severe damage to its international standing; absorb the economic body blows of U.S. and EU sanctions; and spend significant treasure and blood to prevent the Ukrainian military from achieving victory in the East," write Samuel Charap and Tymofiy Mylovanov in the National Interest.
"Europe needs to wake up and recognize that it is under attack from Russia. Assisting Ukraine should also be considered as a defense expenditure by the EU countries. Framed this way, the amounts currently contemplated shrink into insignificance," argues George Soros in the New York Review of Books.
"One reason why the crisis in Ukraine has proved so difficult to overcome is that its roots stretch far outside the country’s borders. Finding a genuine solution will require the resolution of a dispute between Russia and the West that dates back to the 1990s, before Russian President Vladimir Putin came to power," writes Christopher Granville at Project Syndicate.

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