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2014: Russia’s New Military Doctrine Tells It All
As one of his final acts of 2014, on December 26
President Vladimir Putin signed Russia’s new military doctrine. In
principle, the doctrine, an official statement on national defense, is
regularly updated and made public. Its previous iteration had been in
place since February 2010. In the run-up to the publication of the text,
there were gloomy predictions. One suggested that the United States and
its NATO allies would be formally designated Russia’s likely
adversaries. Another one, based on the remarks of a senior serving
general, expected Russia to adopt the notion of preventive nuclear
strike. Neither of these provisions found its way into the published
document. The doctrine does, however, faithfully reflect the sea change
which occurred in Russia’s foreign policy and security and defense
postures in 2014.
Essentially, for Commander-in-Chief Putin and for his generals,
admirals, and security officials, war in 2014 ceased to be a risk and
turned into grim reality. Russia has had to use its military forces in Ukraine,
arguably the most important neighbor it has in Europe. The conflict
over Ukraine, in Moscow’s view, reflects the fundamental reality of an
“intensification of global competition” and the “rivalry of value
orientations and models of development.” Against the background of
economic and political instability—crises and popular movements—the
global balance is changing in favor of emerging power centers. In this
new environment, the doctrine highlights information warfare and outside
interference in Russia’s domestic politics as risks of increased
importance.
The list of main external risks has not changed much, but the nuances
are important. As in the past, top of the table is NATO-related issues:
its enhanced capabilities, global reach and enlargement, which brings
alliance infrastructure closer to Russia’s borders. After the risk of
NATO comes the risk of destabilization of countries and regions, which
can be taken to mean Libya, Syria and Ukraine, and foreign force
deployments close to Russia, which presumably refers to additional NATO
aircraft in the Baltic States, BMD assets in Romania, and naval ships in
the Black Sea. The top portion of the list of risks contains references
to U.S. strategic ballistic missile defense, its Global Strike concept,
and strategic non-nuclear systems.
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