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EBOLA
20,000 Cases by November?
Assuming no changes in infection control efforts, West Africa’s Ebola outbreak could infect 20,000 people by early November—and it could "rumble on" for years, according to a ** study by WHO and Imperial College researchers in the New England Journal of Medicine (http://jhsph.us3.list-manage.
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That’s far worse than numbers from the initial WHO roadmap released in late August, which predicted that 20,000 could be sickened within 9 months. The new study warned that rigorous efforts to isolate cases, trace contacts and involve communities are needed to stem Ebola’s spread. Without these enhanced infection controls, about 10,000 of the new cases would be in Liberia, 5,000 in Sierra Leone and nearly 6,000 in Guinea.
** Thomson Reuters (http://jhsph.us3.list-manage.
GHN Exclusive: Virus Nearly Contained in Nigeria
As of yesterday, the Ebola scare is calming a bit in Nigeria where there has not been a confirmed case for over 2 weeks. All those under surveillance in Lagos have completed their 21-day waiting period. And, the number of contacts still under surveillance in Port Harcourt has dropped to 61. Still, precautions are still being maintained in most places.
Nigeria's containment of the virus has been commended by the WHO and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Nigeria recorded 19 confirmed cases with seven deaths and 12 survivors. Although it is not time to celebrate, we can say this is good news.—Kattey Kattey (MBBS, MPH'11), Port Harcourt, Nigeria.
Related: Ebola outbreak 'pretty much contained' in Senegal and Nigeria – ** Reuters (http://jhsph.us3.list-manage.
Related: Reporter’s Notebook: Covering Ebola in Nigeria while navigating corruption – ** PBS (http://jhsph.us3.list-manage.
Related: How Canada's national lab became an Ebola research powerhouse – ** Brandon Sun (http://jhsph.us3.list-
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