WPR Articles Jan. 27, 2014 - Jan. 31, 2014

Global Insider: Domestic Scandals Knock South Korea’s Nuclear Energy Exports Off Balance

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

This month, South Korea announced a major reduction in its target for nuclear power generation, partly in response to domestic safety concerns. In an email interview, Miles Pomper, a senior research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, explained the role of nuclear energy in South Korea.

Iraq’s Turmoil Highlights Extent and Limits of Iran’s Influence

By: Alireza Nader | Briefing

Since the 2011 drawdown of U.S. military forces from Iraq, the U.S. is no longer the key foreign player in that country. Today, Iran is arguably the most influential foreign force in Iraqi politics. But it is important not to overemphasize Iranian influence in Iraq. Tehran faces limits to its power in Baghdad, and Iraq is likely to seek Iranian patronage only as long as Iraq remains fractured and vulnerable.

Afghanistan After America: Competition for the Roads to Kabul

By: Kathy Gilsinan | Trend Lines

Regional Command East encompasses a territory extending from Afghanistan’s mountainous border with Pakistan to the central provinces surrounding Kabul. The area is characterized by wide variation in terrain, ethnic groups, political dynamics and armed actors. Key to the region’s importance, for the government as well as for competing insurgent groups based there, are its roads to the capital.

World Citizen: U.S.-Saudi Ties Go From Bad to Worse

By: Frida Ghitis | Column

For decades, the foundation of Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy rested on the kingdom’s relationship with the United States. The past three years, however, have brought enormous turbulence to the Middle East, and the Saudis have found Washington’s response increasingly worrisome. Saudi rulers are questioning America’s reliability as an ally and protector and as a result have launched a risky new foreign policy.

Partnership With Jordan Crucial to U.S. Policy in Middle East

By: Eric Auner | Trend Lines

The U.S. relies on Jordan to help resolve many of the thorniest problems in the region, including fighting terrorism, dealing with the consequences of the Syrian civil war and finding a peaceful resolution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict. It is in this context that U.S. officials recently told the AP that preparations were being made for U.S. Special Forces to train Iraqi troops on Jordanian soil in the near future.

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Diplomatic Fallout: Africa Still Matters to EU Defense Cooperation

By: Richard Gowan | Column

Last week, the EU approved plans to send up to 1,000 troops to the Central African Republic, with Estonia the first EU member to make a firm pledge of ground forces to the mission. Other eastern EU members including Poland and the Czech Republic are also reportedly considering participating. This diplomatic maneuvering says more about the state of European defense cooperation than African affairs.

Counting Heads: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly of Demographic Data

By: Jack A. Goldstone | Feature

Making demographic projections is a straightforward exercise when census or survey data are accurate. In many areas of the world, however, demographic data is fraught with uncertainty and errors, due to the inability of governments to accurately count their populations. As long as a large part of the world’s population is living in states that, for reasons of politics or capabilities, do not deliver accurate counts, our ability to obtain accurate data will be limited, as will be our ability to provide accurate projections for the future.

Data Revolution: Development's Next Frontier

By: Claire Melamed | Feature

Governments have been collecting data on their citizens almost from the first moment that they came into being. As the activities of governments have become more complex, and people’s expectations have grown, more and more data has been collected. As a result, a lot is known about some people, and that information is used to design, implement and evaluate policy on their behalf. But very little is known about others—and the decisions that are made for and about them are likely to be much worse as a result.

Global Insights: Russia, NATO and the Goldilocks Zone

By: Richard Weitz | Column

Despite areas of limited cooperation, such as in Afghanistan and counterterrorism efforts, the Russia-NATO relationship is on balance distinctly negative. Although complementary interests can in some cases bridge the gaps that exist, in many instances they are too large to paper over. But the question remains, do the problems in the NATO-Russia relationship—and, more generally speaking, Russia itself—matter?

Going Missing: Filling the Gaps in African GDP Data

By: Morten Jerven | Feature

On Nov. 5, 2010, Ghana’s government statistics office announced that it was revising its GDP estimates upward, and as a result Ghana’s GDP per capita almost doubled. The incident highlights how much less we know than we would like to think we do about growth and development in Africa based on the official numbers. The problem starts with the basic input: information. Ghana’s huge jump in GDP in 2010 is a symptom of this gap between what we think we know and what we actually know about income and growth in Africa.

U.S. Faces Challenges Securing Nuclear Arsenal While Pushing for Elimination

By: Eric Auner | Trend Lines

In 2009, President Barack Obama proclaimed that he would make the “peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons” a key administration foreign policy goal. But recent lapses and scandals involving nuclear weapons personnel have forced the administration to confront the commitment made in the same speech to “maintain a safe, secure and effective” arsenal for as long as nuclear weapons exist.

With Groundwork for Reform in Place, Argentina Needs Leadership to Stabilize

By: Sean Goforth | Briefing

Since October, when President Cristina Fernandez Kirchner had surgery, Argentina has been on tenterhooks as people worried about the president’s future and mounting evidence that the country is once again headed toward economic collapse. Fernandez has been accused of having no plan to deal with Argentina’s slowing growth and rising inflation. But Argentina may not be in as tough a spot as many think.

World Cup Puts Spotlight on Domestic Challenges for Brazil’s Rousseff

By: Christopher Sabatini, Ryan Berger | Briefing

In the coming months, Brazil will host the World Cup and hold elections across all levels of government, all while its once-strong economy shows growing signs of a slowdown. Winning the World Cup hosting rights in 2007, combined with major offshore oil finds, heralded the arrival of a new Brazil. The brighter international spotlight that resulted will put President Dilma Rousseff to the test this year.

Responsible for Verifying Iran Nuclear Deal, IAEA Lacks Reliable Support

By: Jessica C. Varnum | Briefing

Last week’s session of the IAEA board of governors, convened primarily to secure emergency funding for enhanced safeguards activities in Iran, provided a reminder of both the IAEA’s importance and its precarious finances. The international community chronically fails to provide the IAEA with enough resources to fulfill its central role in nuclear nonproliferation and security, and the stakes could not be higher.

Strategic Horizons: The Commercialization of Security is Only Beginning

By: Steven Metz | Column

It would be easy to dismiss the trajectory of Blackwater’s Erik Prince as a personal drama born from a set of particular historical conditions. But the professional evolution of Prince, Blackwater and its replacements are not simply side effects of American involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan or the global conflict with al-Qaida but are instead emblematic of the ongoing commercialization of security.

With Constitution, Tunisia Chooses Compromise Over Confrontation

By: Anthony Dworkin | Briefing

With the adoption of a constitution last weekend, Tunisia became the first post-revolutionary country in the Arab world to forge a political settlement accepted by the broad mass of its people. At a time when the other Arab countries that saw popular uprisings in 2011 have been dragged down by polarization and violence, Tunisia provides an example of political compromise overcoming broad national differences.

Market Access at Issue as India, South Korea Move to Expand Ties

By: Saurav Jha | Briefing

South Korean President Park Geun-hye’s recent visit to India marked the elevation of her country to the top tier of India’s priorities. India and South Korea are drawing closer due to their complementary technological and industrial strengths, which can improve each one’s competitive standing. But India will want greater access to South Korean markets as a condition for further improvements in the relationship.

The Realist Prism: Latin America Gets No Love in State of the Union

By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column

President Barack Obama’s recent State of the Union address declared that “on every issue, the world turns to us.” But apparently the heads of state of the rest of the Western Hemisphere didn’t get the memo. The CELAC summit in Cuba this week hosted by President Raul Castro solidified the trend toward doing business without the U.S. Obama’s speech gave little sign that this will change anytime soon.