Ukraine: Will Putin Strike?

Ukraine: Will Putin Strike?

Feb 28, 2014 02:00 am | Joergen Oerstroem Moeller

Joergen Oerstroem Moeller

The world should brace itself for a Putin strike to prevent Ukraine from turning towards the West.
For those in doubt, suffice to recall President Putin’s statement in 2006 that the collapse of the Soviet Union was “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe” of the twentieth century.
Ukraine firmly anchored in the Western system, on its way towards membership of the EU in due course, or even worse, a member of NATO—these are outcomes he will never tolerate. It would be the final straw in dismantling Russian attempts to extend its influence over the ‘near abroad’—those parts of Central and Eastern Europe that escaped domination by Russia in the aftermath of the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Putin has several times invoked Russia’s right to influence, labelling the ‘near abroad’ strategically vital for Russia. Giving up, especially under such circumstances as these, would be tantamount to a humiliating defeat more than wiping out his diplomatic triumphs (Syria, for example) last year. And the domestic strongman image Putin has carefully cultivated cannot be reconciled with being outmaneuvered by the West and sidelined by a large part of the Ukrainian population.
From Putin’s perspective, this is not only a question of geopolitical power, but an omen of what may happen to Russia’s own political system. If the Ukrainian people can topple a president propped up by Russia (to the tune of cheap gas prices and a USD 15 billion credit line), the same can happen inside Russia. Consequently, it may be that for Putin no cost is too high to prevent such an outcome in Ukraine. People power and the lure of the Western system must not prevail. What is happening in Ukraine is synonymous with a looming threat to his own power.
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