WPR Articles Feb. 24, 2014 - Feb. 28, 2014

Ahead of Elections, Colombia’s Santos Signals Tough Stance on Mining

By: Wesley Tomaselli | Briefing

On taking office, Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos trumpeted mining as one of the country’s main drivers of growth. But recently, the Santos administration dealt an unprecedented series of blows to the country’s No. 2 coal exporter, Alabama-based Drummond Co., signaling that multinationals coming to mine Colombia’s natural resources could face a new, hard-line stance when they don’t play by the rules.

Risks Outweigh Gains in NATO Palestine Proposal

By: Erik Brattberg, Bernardo Pires de Lima | Briefing

Mahmoud Abbas’ recent proposal for a NATO-led peacekeeping operation in Palestine is not a novel idea. Similar proposals were floated by both the Clinton and Bush administrations, as well as in NATO’s 2010 “Albright report.” But the Abbas plan, which calls for NATO troops to be indefinitely deployed to protect the West Bank and Gaza as well as checkpoints and within East Jerusalem, is worth considering.

Global Insider: North American Trilateral Summit Sets Stage for Deeper Energy Cooperation

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

Last week’s U.S.-Mexico-Canada trilateral summit resulted in a communique that among other things called for increased energy cooperation on the continent. In an email interview, Jed Bailey, managing partner of Energy Narrative, a research and consulting group focusing on Latin America’s energy sector, explained the recent history of and next steps for North American energy integration.

World Citizen: A Budding Love Affair Between Israel and Latin America

By: Frida Ghitis | Column

The late Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez once tried to insult his country’s next-door neighbor Colombia by calling it the “Israel of Latin America.” But the Colombian president said he found the comparison an honor. Relations between Latin America and Israel are starting to look like a budding love affair, with Latin American countries gaining a valuable economic partner and Israel new diplomatic allies.

Regional Tensions Complicate South Sudan’s Crisis

By: Gaaki Kigambo | Briefing

The deadly conflict in South Sudan is increasingly drawing in neighboring countries driven by disparate security and economic interests, further complicating the crisis and efforts to reach a quick resolution. The U.N. has accused both sides of human rights abuses in a conflict that has so far claimed an unknown number of lives, displaced an estimated 900,000 people and shows no signs of letting up.

More Diplomatic Fallout: Putin’s Failure in Ukraine Could Worsen Syria Crisis By: Richard Gowan | Column The Ukrainian revolution and Syrian rebellion appear to be on different trajectories. President Bashar Assad maintains a brutally tenacious hold on power, while his Ukrainian counterpart, Viktor Yanukovych, was forced from the capital, Kiev, last week. Assad may view Yanukovych’s humiliation as proof of the need for utter ruthlessness against his opponents. But the two men’s fates remain intertwined. In Context: U.S.-Mexico Security Cooperation on Display in Guzman Arrest By: Matt Peterson | Trend Lines The arrest of Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman this weekend was remarkable not only for its images of a long-sought drug kingpin finally captured, but also for its display of close U.S.-Mexican security cooperation. Despite a reported pause in security relations, wheels were moving behind the scenes; it was the Americans, relying on U.S.-gathered intelligence, who pushed for the operation that led to Guzman’s capture. Global Insights: Ukraine Crisis Shows Strength of NATO Partnership Policies By: Richard Weitz | Column Although the geopolitical tug-of-war between the European Union and Russia was recognized as a principal factor driving Ukraine’s crisis, NATO’s role is not widely understood. Though NATO took no military action in the crisis, its partnership policies toward Ukraine have helped keep the Ukrainian armed forces out of the recent street fighting and could help the country emerge from its recent security crisis. Nuclear Diplomacy with Iran Moves Forward Despite Worries By: Eric Auner | Trend Lines Three months after the P5+1 and Iran reached an interim agreement to limit Iranian nuclear capabilities, the negotiating parties announced last week that they had agreed on a framework for negotiation of a final comprehensive agreement. Announcing the framework agreement, U.S. Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Wendy Sherman said that these negotiations, set to begin in March, would be “very tough.” Despite Divisions, Syria’s Rebels Mark Significant Gains in Tactics, Arms By: Balint Szlanko | Briefing Plagued by divisions and infighting, as well as indecision among their external sponsors, Syria’s rebels have lost ground to government forces, with the Western-backed rebel grouping seen as ineffectual and disorganized. But in the past six months, some things have gone the Syrian rebels’ way. Their organization and tactics have improved, and they have better weapons, strategic depth and superiority in manpower. Strategic Horizons: For the New Autocrats, America Needs a New Strategy By: Steven Metz | Column Every day seems to bring news of another nation slipping into political crisis. It's hard to know what nation will next fall off the cliff, but it's a sure bet that some will. But instead of adjusting to what will be a decade or more of turbulence, the United States is clinging to an old mode of statecraft predicated on a relatively stable international system with a consistent cast of sovereign states. Russian Arms Talks Underscore Uncertainty of Egypt-U.S. Ties By: Eric Auner | Trend Lines Last November, the United States suspended aid and arms transfers to Egypt in reaction to the ouster of President Mohammed Morsi. In contrast, earlier this month Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted Egyptian defense minister Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, praising the “unconditional friendship” between Egypt and Russia countries and reportedly working to negotiate a $2 billion arms deal. Seeking Fiscal Safety, U.S. Defense Cuts Raise Geopolitical Risk By: Hal Brands | Briefing More than anything else, grand strategy is about balancing risk. Given limited resources, countries cannot defend perfectly against every threat, or spend robustly on every priority at home and abroad. Yet paring down the defense budget should not be seen simply as a way of managing fiscal risk. For in doing so, the United States is necessarily courting other kinds of risk, both geopolitical and military. The Realist Prism: Venezuela, Ukraine Challenge Assumptions Behind Defense Cuts By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column The protests in Ukraine and Venezuela and the unveiling this week by Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel of the Obama administration’s budget request to Congress would appear to be separate and unrelated events. Yet they are linked by the challenge those developments pose to the strategic assumptions behind the defense budget, namely, that the U.S. can focus on Asia while Europe and Latin America remain quiet.