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Saturday, February 22, 2014

WPR Articles Feb. 18, 2014 - Feb. 21, 2014 Global Insights: Russia-NATO Naval Operation Would Boost Syria Chemical Weapons Plan

WPR Articles Feb. 18, 2014 - Feb. 21, 2014

Global Insights: Russia-NATO Naval Operation Would Boost Syria Chemical Weapons Plan

By: Richard Weitz | Column
That Russia and NATO are developing plans to conduct a joint maritime show of force to reaffirm their commitment to the Syrian chemical weapons elimination process is a good development. The mission would be largely symbolic, but the symbolism would be potent. The joint operation could re-energize the stalled elimination process in Syria and provide a basis for renewed Russian-NATO cooperation in other areas.

Afghanistan After America: In Isolated Kabul, Power but Little Control

By: Kathy Gilsinan | Trend Lines
Twelve years after the Taliban seemed to disappear from Kabul overnight, the Taliban and other insurgent groups have demonstrated the ability to stage regular attacks within the city. The steady pace of suicide bombings in the heavily fortified capital contributes to the perception of the vulnerability of the Kabul-based central government and casts doubt on its ability to provide security in remote provinces.

For Nepal, New Prime Minister and Guarded Optimism, but Same Problems

By: Vishal Arora | Briefing
Expectations are high for Nepal’s new prime minister, Sushil Koirala, who was elected to head the government by more than two-thirds of lawmakers’ votes last week and whose centrist party has many more potential allies in the recently elected legislature than it did in the previous assembly. However, challenges to bringing stability to the country and writing the nation’s new constitution remain daunting.

Israel Considers Lasers to Defeat Growing Rocket Threat

By: Eric Auner | Trend Lines
Speaking to a crowd in Tel Aviv last month, former Israel National Security Adviser Yaakov Amidror emphasized a common Israeli concern about future conflicts. “Whatever will be the scenario,” he said, Israel “will have to deal with many missiles and rockets.” Israel is now investigating the use of laser-based missile defense against the rocket arsenals of regional foes like Hezbollah.

The Realist Prism: Why the U.S. Always Calls for Dialogue, and Why it Always Fails

By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column
Whenever political violence breaks out anywhere in the world, one can predict the U.S. response without any hesitation. The State Department will declare that the U.S. abhors the use of violence and call for dialogue. The repetition of this well-worn narrative every time violence breaks out in yet another capital city seems to have little effect on conditions on the ground. Still, it is not an empty ritual.

Big Tent: Ethiopia's Authoritarian Balancing Act

By: Terrence Lyons | Feature
When Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia’s leader of more than 20 years, died in August 2012, many anticipated significant and potentially destabilizing change. However, Ethiopia was never a one-man dictatorship. Rather, the ruling EPRDF party is key to understanding Ethiopia’s stability and the regime’s ability to remain in control of a diverse country of some 90 million, divided into a complex set of ethnic groups, in a poor region that suffers terrible levels of conflict.

Dual Powers: Repression and Participation in Iran

By: Manochehr Dorraj | Feature
The Iranian revolution of 1979 that overthrew the last ruler of the Pahlavi dynasty was one of the largest mass movements of the 20th century. This massive “participation explosion,” however, did not culminate in the creation of a democracy. Instead, the Islamic Republic of Iran as a political project since its inception has been a contradictory phenomenon in which the tension between the republican and the Islamic ideological components of the regime had to be worked out and managed.

One-Family Rule: North Korea's Hereditary Authoritarianism

By: Charles Armstrong | Feature
Recent events in Pyongyang have showed the world that North Korea's succession from Kim Jong Il to Kim Jong Un was not as smooth and orderly as it had appeared. But the fact remains that the North Korean regime has remained in power for more than 60 years under the unbroken leadership of three generations of the Kim family. To evaluate the future of North Korea, it is critical to understand how the hereditary leadership system has developed historically, its current state and its future prospects.

Yemen’s Creation of Federal Republic Leaves Major Grievances Unresolved

By: Alexandra Lewis | Briefing
This month, Yemeni President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi announced the partition of the country into six federal regions. The move resulted from a political negotiation of Yemen’s governance processes, a significant development in itself, but the new federal system’s implications for peace and conflict are undetermined, especially since the system’s legitimacy is already being questioned by key Yemeni stakeholders.

Strategic Horizons: All Options Bad If Mexico’s Drug Violence Expands to U.S.

By: Steven Metz | Column
Over the past few decades, violence in Mexico has reached horrific levels as criminal organizations fight each other for control of the drug trade and wage war on the state. Americans must face the possibility that the conflict may expand northward into the U.S. If so, this will force Americans to undertake a fundamental reassessment of the threat as one possibly demanding the use of U.S. military power.

Ignoring Protests, Bosnia-Herzegovina’s Leaders Opt for Politics as Usual

By: Srecko Latal | Briefing
Ignoring social protests, Bosnian leaders rejected the latest and final attempt of the European Commission’s enlargement commissioner, Stefan Fule, to find a compromise for the country’s disputed constitutional reform. Fule told a press conference Tuesday that Bosnia-Herzegovina’s leaders were unable or unwilling to undertake the constitutional reform the EU has made a condition of the country’s accession.

World Citizen: Venezuelan Opposition Tries New Strategy of Confrontation

By: Frida Ghitis | Column
The Venezuelan opposition has shifted gears and is steering down a new path, carrying a message that there is no time to wait for change. The decision to take a more confrontational approach comes in an environment of growing popular discontent, with an accelerating downward economic spiral and increasingly harsh living conditions under the late Hugo Chavez’s hand-picked successor, President Nicolas Maduro.

After Kick-Starting Cyprus Talks, U.S. Should Now Stand Back

By: James Ker-Lindsay | Briefing
Having failed to restart unification talks as recently as last December, Turkish and Greek Cypriot leaders announced earlier this month they had settled on a joint statement as the basis of negotiations. Surprisingly, the deal was brokered by the U.S., rather than the U.N. But while Washington played an essential part in breaking the deadlock, it is unlikely to continue to play an overt part in the talks ahead.

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