WPR Articles Feb. 18, 2014 - Feb. 21, 2014
Global Insights: Russia-NATO Naval Operation Would Boost Syria Chemical Weapons Plan
By: Richard Weitz | Column
That Russia and NATO are developing
plans to conduct a joint maritime show of force to reaffirm their
commitment to the Syrian chemical weapons elimination process is a good
development. The mission would be largely symbolic, but the symbolism
would be potent. The joint operation could re-energize the stalled
elimination process in Syria and provide a basis for renewed
Russian-NATO cooperation in other areas.
Afghanistan After America: In Isolated Kabul, Power but Little Control
By: Kathy Gilsinan | Trend Lines
Twelve years after the Taliban seemed
to disappear from Kabul overnight, the Taliban and other insurgent
groups have demonstrated the ability to stage regular attacks within the
city. The steady pace of suicide bombings in the heavily fortified
capital contributes to the perception of the vulnerability of the
Kabul-based central government and casts doubt on its ability to provide
security in remote provinces.
For Nepal, New Prime Minister and Guarded Optimism, but Same Problems
By: Vishal Arora | Briefing
Expectations are high for Nepal’s new
prime minister, Sushil Koirala, who was elected to head the government
by more than two-thirds of lawmakers’ votes last week and whose centrist
party has many more potential allies in the recently elected
legislature than it did in the previous assembly. However, challenges to
bringing stability to the country and writing the nation’s new
constitution remain daunting.
Israel Considers Lasers to Defeat Growing Rocket Threat
By: Eric Auner | Trend Lines
Speaking to a crowd in Tel Aviv last
month, former Israel National Security Adviser Yaakov Amidror emphasized
a common Israeli concern about future conflicts. “Whatever will be the
scenario,” he said, Israel “will have to deal with many missiles and
rockets.” Israel is now investigating the use of laser-based missile
defense against the rocket arsenals of regional foes like Hezbollah.
The Realist Prism: Why the U.S. Always Calls for Dialogue, and Why it Always Fails
By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column
Whenever political violence breaks out
anywhere in the world, one can predict the U.S. response without any
hesitation. The State Department will declare that the U.S. abhors the
use of violence and call for dialogue. The repetition of this well-worn
narrative every time violence breaks out in yet another capital city
seems to have little effect on conditions on the ground. Still, it is
not an empty ritual.
Big Tent: Ethiopia's Authoritarian Balancing Act
By: Terrence Lyons | Feature
When Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia’s leader of
more than 20 years, died in August 2012, many anticipated significant
and potentially destabilizing change. However, Ethiopia was never a
one-man dictatorship. Rather, the ruling EPRDF party is key to
understanding Ethiopia’s stability and the regime’s ability to remain in
control of a diverse country of some 90 million, divided into a complex
set of ethnic groups, in a poor region that suffers terrible levels of
conflict.
Dual Powers: Repression and Participation in Iran
By: Manochehr Dorraj | Feature
The Iranian revolution of 1979 that
overthrew the last ruler of the Pahlavi dynasty was one of the largest
mass movements of the 20th century. This massive “participation
explosion,” however, did not culminate in the creation of a democracy.
Instead, the Islamic Republic of Iran as a political project since its
inception has been a contradictory phenomenon in which the tension
between the republican and the Islamic ideological components of the
regime had to be worked out and managed.
One-Family Rule: North Korea's Hereditary Authoritarianism
By: Charles Armstrong | Feature
Recent events in Pyongyang have showed
the world that North Korea's succession from Kim Jong Il to Kim Jong Un
was not as smooth and orderly as it had appeared. But the fact remains
that the North Korean regime has remained in power for more than 60
years under the unbroken leadership of three generations of the Kim
family. To evaluate the future of North Korea, it is critical to
understand how the hereditary leadership system has developed
historically, its current state and its future prospects.
Yemen’s Creation of Federal Republic Leaves Major Grievances Unresolved
By: Alexandra Lewis | Briefing
This month, Yemeni President Abed Rabbo
Mansour Hadi announced the partition of the country into six federal
regions. The move resulted from a political negotiation of Yemen’s
governance processes, a significant development in itself, but the new
federal system’s implications for peace and conflict are undetermined,
especially since the system’s legitimacy is already being questioned by
key Yemeni stakeholders.
Strategic Horizons: All Options Bad If Mexico’s Drug Violence Expands to U.S.
By: Steven Metz | Column
Over the past few decades, violence in
Mexico has reached horrific levels as criminal organizations fight each
other for control of the drug trade and wage war on the state. Americans
must face the possibility that the conflict may expand northward into
the U.S. If so, this will force Americans to undertake a fundamental
reassessment of the threat as one possibly demanding the use of U.S.
military power.
Ignoring Protests, Bosnia-Herzegovina’s Leaders Opt for Politics as Usual
By: Srecko Latal | Briefing
Ignoring social protests, Bosnian
leaders rejected the latest and final attempt of the European
Commission’s enlargement commissioner, Stefan Fule, to find a compromise
for the country’s disputed constitutional reform. Fule told a press
conference Tuesday
that Bosnia-Herzegovina’s leaders were unable or unwilling to undertake
the constitutional reform the EU has made a condition of the country’s
accession.
World Citizen: Venezuelan Opposition Tries New Strategy of Confrontation
By: Frida Ghitis | Column
The Venezuelan opposition has shifted
gears and is steering down a new path, carrying a message that there is
no time to wait for change. The decision to take a more confrontational
approach comes in an environment of growing popular discontent, with an
accelerating downward economic spiral and increasingly harsh living
conditions under the late Hugo Chavez’s hand-picked successor, President
Nicolas Maduro.
After Kick-Starting Cyprus Talks, U.S. Should Now Stand Back
By: James Ker-Lindsay | Briefing
Having failed to restart unification
talks as recently as last December, Turkish and Greek Cypriot leaders
announced earlier this month they had settled on a joint statement as
the basis of negotiations. Surprisingly, the deal was brokered by the
U.S., rather than the U.N. But while Washington played an essential part
in breaking the deadlock, it is unlikely to continue to play an overt
part in the talks ahead.
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