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Monday, February 24, 2014

Ukraine Seeks Arrest of Yanukovich



Council on Foreign Relations Daily News Brief
February 24, 2014

Top of the Agenda

Ukraine Seeks Arrest of Yanukovich
Ukraine's acting government issued an arrest warrant for deposed president Viktor Yanukovich, accusing him of "mass killings" of protestors (AP). Yanukovich fled the capital Kiev on Saturday and has been reportedly seen in Crimea in southern Ukraine, home to Russia's Black Sea Fleet (WaPo). Parliament passed a series of measures this weekend, granting amnesty to protestors, freeing political prisoners, and replacing Yanukovich with acting president Oleksander Turchinov, who said the country seeks a new relationship with Russia that "takes into account Ukraine's European choice" (Reuters). Moscow said it will withhold further loans and aid to Ukraine until it has more clarity on the government in Kiev, while the United States, the European Union, and the UK said they are ready to help (Bloomberg).

Analysis

"Despite what some Ukrainians suspect, Moscow is unlikely to try bringing about the breakup of Ukraine in order to annex its southern and eastern parts. That would mean civil war next door, and Russia abhors the idea. Moscow's best option at this point is to stand back and wait, while quietly favoring decentralization in Ukraine," writes Dmitri Trenin in the New York Times.
"The U.S. could and should convey clearly to Mr. Putin that it is prepared to use its influence to make certain a truly independent and territorially undivided Ukraine will pursue policies towards Russia similar to those so effectively practised by Finland: mutually respectful neighbours with wide-ranging economic relations with Russia and the EU; no participation in any military alliance viewed by Moscow as directed at itself but expanding its European connectivity," writes Zbigniew Brzezinski in the Financial Times.
"The country needs a 'political restart,' in the words of former heavyweight boxing champion and opposition leader Vitaly Klitschko. Fresher faces would be welcome, and Mr. Klitschko, a Russian speaker, has a following in the east and leads in the polls. He's inexperienced but untainted by corruption. Any new leader will have to carry out an economic overhaul that will include some short-term pain," the Wall Street Journal writes in an editorial.

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