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Feb 20, 2014 11:15 am | Dmitri Trenin
This
week, the crisis in Ukraine has crossed a dangerous line. What was
expected to be a revolution is morphing into a civil war. Should this
happen, Ukraine will turn into another Yugoslavia: a terrifying
prospect. It should also be sobering. So far, the West and Russia have
been trading accusations about their respective meddling in Ukraine.
True, neither side has been impartial, and each has its preferences and
its clients. Yet, both are likely to lose heavily in case Ukraine
becomes Europe’s newest battlefield. There are several things the
leaders in Brussels and Berlin, Washington and Moscow need to keep in
mind, and several things they need to do jointly and in parallel.Outsiders need to realize that Ukraine’s crisis, essentially, is not primarily about Kiev’s international orientation. It is above all about high-level corruption and poor governance; it is about rivalries among largely irresponsible oligarchical clans; and it is about the cultural divide between the country’s west and east, which has not been eased after Ukraine, received its independence in 1991. These issues can only be tackled and hopefully resolved by the Ukrainians themselves. In the foreseeable future, Ukraine will not move either east or west; it might, however, go south.
read morehttp://nationalinterest.org/commentary/ukraine-edge-9909
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