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Friday, December 6, 2013

WPR Articles 02 Dec 2013 - 06 Dec 2013

WPR Articles 02 Dec 2013 - 06 Dec 2013

China’s Middle East Policy Faces Long-Term Challenge From Continuing Turmoil

By: Jingdong Yuan | Briefing
From the start of the Syria conflict, China has maintained a firm position that the only solution to the crisis is a political one and that Syria’s sovereignty must be respected. But this position is being tested as the turmoil in the Middle East drags on, threatening important Chinese interests. For China, securing its position may require going beyond its traditional passivity to actually propose solutions.

Global Insider: U.N. Compensation for Peacekeeping Losses Sensitive and Difficult

By: The Editors | Trend Lines
In an email interview, Scott Sheeran, a senior lecturer in international human rights, humanitarian law and U.N. law at the School of Law at University of Essex, explained the rules governing U.N. compensation to states contributing to peacekeeping missions.

Congress Balks as Obama Administration Pursues TPP Deal

By: Eric Auner | Trend Lines
As the United States moves toward the final negotiation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership with 11 other Pacific Rim countries, some in Congress are seeking greater input into the final agreement.

World Citizen: Iran Deal Already Shifting Regional Balance of Power

By: Frida Ghitis | Column
It took just a few days after the agreement between Iran and world powers was announced in Geneva before evidence started to emerge of a significant strengthening of Iran’s position against its rivals. The interim agreement has not gone into effect yet, but the balance of power in the Persian Gulf is already changing, with Arab states worried about what they believe is Iran’s goal of regional dominance.

The Realist Prism: West Not Ready for Post-Yanukovych Ukraine

By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column
Much analysis of the events in Ukraine has focused on the advisability of removing President Viktor Yanukovych and getting Ukraine to sign the EU association agreement, but little attention has been paid to what might happen the day after. This thinking echoes the prevailing line in 2004, when the absence of a coherent, sustained Western approach in the aftermath of the Orange Revolution led to its unraveling.

Diplomatic Fallout: Europe’s Struggle for Strategic Competitiveness, Part II

By: Richard Gowan | Column
Does the EU, notorious for producing reams of official documents, need to churn out another one? In last week’s column, I argued that the EU needs an overarching strategy to respond to escalating challenges both on its periphery and at the global level. The existing European Security Strategy, completed 10 years ago, remains a pithy analysis of the problems the bloc faced in 2003. But its age shows.

China’s Plenum Reforms May Depend on Xi’s Leadership Skills

By: Iain Mills | Briefing
The Chinese Communist Party’s Third Plenum culminated last month with the release of a reform-minded document outlining significant changes in 60 key areas of the Chinese economy. Coupled with recent events in the political sphere, the agenda represents the emergence of President Xi Jinping as a leader and the benchmarks by which he will be judged between now and the plenum’s key target date of 2020.

Global Insights: Despite Mounting Costs, Russia Sticks By Syria’s Assad

By: Richard Weitz | Column
The Syrian civil war has presented Moscow with two major challenges. First, the collapse of the Assad regime would likely result in a sharp decline of Russian influence in Damascus. Second, an Islamist victory in Syria could encourage Islamist extremism in the North Caucasus and Central Asia. For these reasons, Moscow has refused to turn its back on one of its few remaining allies in the Middle East.

Rethinking Return: Defining Success in Refugee Repatriation

By: Megan Bradley | Feature
Although the return and reintegration of refugees and internally displaced persons is a critical post-conflict challenge, the questions return processes raise rarely receive the attention they deserve. For instance, what does a “success” look like when it comes to return and reintegration in post-conflict contexts? Who is responsible for making this happen? What is meant by the “right of return”? What are the obstacles to making repatriation safe and sustainable, and how can they be addressed?

Safe Harbor: Shoring Up the Norm of Nonrefoulement

By: Michael Kagan | Feature
Among the most damning criticisms of human rights law is that when it is needed most, it is nearly impossible to enforce. Unless, that is, a person in danger of persecution manages to cross an international border, when human rights law suddenly becomes considerably more enforceable. This is the principle of nonrefoulement, and while it doesn’t always work, and the systems in place to enforce it are a patchwork with tremendous gaps, it might be the single most effective rule in all of international human rights.

The Idea of Home: Getting Return Right for Kenya's Long-Term Somali Refugees

By: Laura Hammond | Feature
Last month, the governments of Kenya and Somalia agreed in principle to begin working toward the return of the half-million Somali refugees living in Kenya to their country of origin. While the challenges of return will be considerable for everyone, they will likely be most daunting to those Somalis who have been living in exile for many years, including the second- and third-generation refugees for whom repatriation does not involve a return in any meaningful sense, but a move to a country that is theirs only in name.

A Compromised Hegemon, South Africa Must Rethink Its African Peace Operations

By: James Hamill | Briefing
This year has been one of fluctuating fortunes for South Africa as it seeks to shape Africa’s emerging security architecture and to cement its position as the leading player in continental peace operations. Although the case for South African leadership is a compelling one, those leadership aspirations do not necessarily play well domestically, nor are they always well-received in the wider continent.

Strategic Horizons: For U.S. in Afghanistan, Zero Option Not So Bad After All

By: Steven Metz | Column
Hamid Karzai is playing a dangerous game with the security of both Afghanistan and the United States. The Afghan president has said he will not sign a bilateral security agreement negotiated with Washington in the near future. And while the Obama administration has said it is not planning for the so-called zero option, the strategic benefits of keeping troops in Afghanistan no longer clearly outweigh the costs.

Shifts in Cultivation, Usage Put Bolivia’s Coca Policy at the Crossroads

By: Coletta A. Youngers | Briefing
The violence that erupted during a coca eradication campaign in Apolo, Bolivia, in October was an anomaly, because forced eradication is only taking place in very limited areas of the country. Nonetheless, Apolo illustrates the complex political waters that the government of President Evo Morales has to navigate in meeting the demands of its coca grower base while reducing coca cultivated for illicit markets.

U.S. Defense Industry Adjusts to New Fiscal Environment

By: Eric Auner | Trend Lines
The United States has long sustained levels of defense spending that dwarf those of other nations, especially over the past decade. But in an era when the U.S. is scaling back its offshore military footprint and struggling to get its fiscal house in order, the amount of money available to sustain the defense industry is in decline.

India-Israel Ties Complicated by Iran Opening, Shifting Defense Priorities

By: Saurav Jha | Briefing
In recent years India and Israel agreed to compartmentalize their divergences over Iran’s nuclear program, as U.S. pressure on Iran left India’s ties with the latter stunted. Now, with Western pressure on Tehran beginning to ease, the level of India’s dealings with Iran could become a matter of concern for Israel. It remains to be seen if increased India-Iran ties impact Israeli-Indian defense cooperation.
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