WPR Articles 29 Sep 2012 - 06 Oct 2012

The Continentalist: Who Is Really Leading the EU?

By: Ulrike Guérot | Column

Throughout the European Union’s sovereign debt crisis, the conventional wisdom has portrayed Germany as leading the EU, in particular by imposing its economic policy preferences on Greece, Italy and Spain. But while Germany seems to be the most powerful player these days, it is pretty isolated, and a new coalition bent on pushing back against the “Berlin Consensus” seems to be forming.

Global Insights: Georgia's Elections Mark Historic Step

By: Richard Weitz | Column

Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili today conceded that his ruling UNM party had lost the popular vote to the opposition Georgian Dream coalition in yesterday’s parliamentary elections. Having pledged to allow the opposition to the form the next government, Saakashvili will secure his legacy by overseeing the first peaceful transfer of power between opposing political forces in Georgia’s history.

Strategic Horizons: Like It or Not, U.S. Cannot Control China Relationship

By: Steven Metz | Column

How the U.S.-China relationship will evolve as China becomes increasingly powerful and assertive remains uncertain. But the assumption that Washington, through its policy choices, will determine whether future relations are cooperative or antagonistic is probably mistaken: The U.S. may be unable to control the evolution of U.S.-China relations. Instead, factors inside China will determine the outcome.

World Citizen: Three Steps Forward on the Road to Peace

By: Frida Ghitis | Column

The global landscape has been scarred for decades by conflicts that defy the passage of time and the efforts of armies and diplomats -- conflicts that at times seem impossible to solve. That is why it's worth pausing to take note of a momentous development has taken place in recent months: Three of the world's most durable and deadly conflicts -- in Somalia, Sudan and Myanmar -- appear to be coming to an end.

The Realist Prism: For Russia, Obama's Reset Not Such a Sweet Deal

By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column

It is an article of faith among American conservatives that Russian President Vladimir Putin is rooting for U.S. President Barack Obama to win the U.S. presidential election next month, and that if Mitt Romney were to take up residence in the White House, it would be a major setback for the Kremlin. In reality, the view from Moscow is that Obama, in many cases, has “gotten the better” of Russia.

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U.S., New Zealand Move to Enhance Strategic Partnership

By: Prashanth Parameswaran | Briefing

Last month, U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta paid the first visit by a U.S. defense secretary to New Zealand in 30 years. Panetta’s trip is just the latest in a string of bilateral moves between Wellington and Washington over the past few years to find new ways to work together in the Asia-Pacific region, all in an effort to translate their elevated strategic partnership into enhanced cooperation.

Islamist Terror Groups Expand in Africa's Power Vacuums

By: Catherine Cheney | Trend Lines

African Islamist terrorist organizations have made headlines in recent weeks, with media outlets paying closer attention to terrorist networks operating on the continent after the Libyan government blamed the local Salafist jihadi group Ansar al-Sharia for the attack on the U.S. diplomatic mission in Benghazi, Libya. 

Separating Fact From Fiction on Mexico's Drug Cartels

By: Cory Siskind | Briefing

The recent capture of several high-profile drug cartel capos has propelled Mexico’s security situation into the spotlight. While the reality of the cartel-related violence is often shocking, much of the press coverage is more fiction than fact. In particular, three recurrent misconceptions surrounding Mexico’s drug cartels plague press coverage outside of Mexico and skew policymaking in Washington.

France's Hollande Seeks Reset in Post-Arab Spring Maghreb

By: Jonathan Laurence | Briefing

French President François Hollande will make his first state visit to an Arab country, Algeria, this December, marking the culmination of his effort to restore France’s standing in a region that is being actively courted by the United States and China. The visit also underscores the differences between Hollande’s approach to regional diplomacy and that of his predecessor, Nicolas Sarkozy.

Implementation Key for Sudan, South Sudan's 'Partial Peace'

By: Catherine Cheney | Trend Lines

Last week, the presidents of Sudan and South Sudan signed an economic and security deal in which they agreed to resume oil exports from the newly independent South and create a demilitarized zone along their still-disputed border.

As Shiite Crescent Recedes, Iran's Power Wanes

By: Zachary Keck | Briefing

With global attention fixated on Iran’s nuclear program, an equally significant development for Iran’s strategic outlook is being overlooked. The Shiite Crescent that began to take shape in the wake of the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq has effectively receded. Regardless of the outcome of the nuclear issue, Iran poses a much smaller threat to the region than it did just a few short years ago.

After Syrian Mortar Attack, Turkey Aims to Reinforce Deterrence

By: Catherine Cheney | Trend Lines

A day after a deadly mortar attack from Syria killed five civilians in the Turkish border town of Akcakale, the Turkish Parliament on Thursday authorized further military action against Syria, with a measure allowing for crossborder raids.

As Chávez Feels the Heat, Venezuela Braces for a Climactic Election

By: Jan-Albert Hootsen | Briefing

Venezuelans go to the polls Sunday in what some commentators have baptized the “mother of all elections.” Socialist President Hugo Chávez seeks a third consecutive term and a continuation of his “Bolivarian Revolution,” but faces a strong challenge from the social-democratic Henrique Capriles Radonski, the first opposition candidate since 1998 with a real chance of toppling Chávez.