WPR Articles 20 Oct 2012 - 27 Oct 2012

With Leadership Transition, China Inches Toward a New Era

By: Iain Mills | Briefing

Following considerable speculation that it would be postponed or even cancelled, the 18th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will convene in Beijing on Nov. 8. Although key issues and personnel appointments remain unsettled, the announcement of the November congress coincides with other signals that what has appeared at times to be gridlock at the upper political echelons is easing.

Preparing the Legal Foundations for U.S. Cyberdefense

By: Eric Sterner | Briefing

Since September, U.S. officials have detailed a number of cyberattacks against private sector targets in the U.S. and allied countries. The message is clear: The United States is engaged in a cyber conflict. Alarmingly, however, the U.S. private sector lacks an adequate approach to defending itself against such cyberattacks, in large part because Washington has yet to prepare a legal foundation for doing so.

South Africa After the ANC: Part I

By: James Hamill | Briefing

South Africa's ruling African National Congress party is beset by problems it is incapable of seriously addressing, far less resolving. The main question now is whether it will experience a dignified “democratic decline” or a descent into Zanufication, whereby, like Zimbabwe’s ZANU-PF, the liberation movement asserts its right to rule on the basis of history rather than the will of the people.

The Realist Prism: Politics, Strategy and U.S. Defense Budgets

By: Nikolas Gvosdev | Column

On Monday, during the final presidential debate, President Barack Obama proclaimed that his defense budgets were driven by strategy, not by politics. In theory, Obama is correct. Defense budgeting is supposed to be a rational exercise that assesses threats and needs, and then fills in the gaps. In practice, however, the process by which American strategy is developed is in itself a highly political process.

Regional Uncertainty Puts Hezbollah's Back to the Wall

By: Varun Vira | Briefing

Over the years, Hezbollah has been many things: a terrorist group, a sectarian militia and a legitimate political actor. Today, Hezbollah faces challenges on all sides. Israel is as strong as ever; its Syrian and Iranian patrons are struggling; and a regional Sunni ascendancy threatens its domestic legitimacy. At near-peak strength just a few years ago, Hezbollah now finds itself in dangerously uncertain waters.

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Global Insider: Political Repression Creates New Enemies for Iran's Hard-Liners

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In an email interview, Ali Ansari, director of the Institute for Iranian Studies at St. Andrews University, discussed the climate of dissent in Iran. 

The Continentalist: Regionalism as the Basis for a Post-Crisis EU

By: Ulrike Guérot | Column

The rise of regional autonomy movements across Europe seems light years away from the European Union’s supranational ambitions. But if regions have become the new rivals to nations, regionalism is not necessarily a bad thing for the EU. Empowering regions in the context of a supranational EU could actually be an interesting way to organize governance in Europe, albeit at the expense of the nation state.

Turkey, Egypt Seek to Deepen Ties Amid Regional Shifts

By: Catherine Cheney | Trend Lines

Last week, the naval forces of Turkey and Egypt completed joint military exercises in the Mediterranean Sea, the latest sign of warming ties between the two former rivals, in what the New York Times said could be “a significant geopolitical shift in the Middle East.”

South Africa After the ANC: Part II

By: James Hamill | Briefing

The African National Congress is trapped in a systemic crisis from which it cannot extricate itself. Consequently, the wellbeing of South African democracy requires a shift from the current one-party dominant system to a more competitive multiparty system. Progress to a more pluralist order may be accelerated by the ability of the Democratic Alliance to position itself as a credible alternative governing party.

Global Insights: Obama, Romney Minimize Differences in Foreign Policy Debate

By: Richard Weitz | Column

As a general rule, foreign policy issues do not significantly impact U.S. presidential elections. Yet last night's debate between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney could matter more than usual. The previous two debates appeared to impact voters’ intentions. And last night’s debate occurred shortly before the election, so any impressions the two candidates made will remain fresh in voters’ minds.

Global Insider: IMF Constituency Changes Don't Go Far Enough

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In an email interview, Edwin M. Truman, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, discussed the changes in IMF constituencies.

Strategic Horizons: For U.S. Military, 'Strategic Leadership' Easier Said Than Done

By: Steven Metz | Column

What skills, precisely, should America's senior military leaders have? Most American
s don't give this question much thought. But they should. The military itself has a quick and easy answer: Generals and admirals should be "strategic leaders." But while the idea of producing "strategic leaders" rolls nicely off the tongue, the problem is pinning down what it means.

Beirut Bombing Threatens Lebanon's Political Balance

By: Catherine Cheney | Trend Lines

A car bomb killed at least eight people Friday in Beirut, Lebanon, including Wissam al-Hassan, the country’s head of police intelligence and one of the more powerful opponents of Syrian interference in Lebanese affairs. Hassan’s assassination threatens to further polarize a country where tensions were already running high due to the civil war next door.

Global Insider: New Presidents in France, Mexico Opt to Reset Ties

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In an email interview, Roberto Domínguez, a professor of government at Suffolk University, discussed France-Mexico relations.

In Taiwan, Plan for China 'Embassy' Sparks Fears of Meddling

By: Jens Kastner | Briefing

Having overseen a warming of ties with mainland China, Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou took the latest step on Oct. 10, approving a plan to allow both sides to set up representative offices on each other's soil. But permitting Chinese officials to have a permanent presence in Taiwan is controversial, drawing comparisons to Beijing's liaison office in Hong Kong, widely seen as meddling in politics there. 

World Citizen: Iran's Ahmadinejad Feels the Heat at Home and Abroad

By: Frida Ghitis | Column

When Mitt Romney vowed during the last presidential debate that, if elected president, he would seek an ICC indictment of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, he was really trying to convince American voters that he would be tougher on Iran than President Barack Obama. Targeting Ahmadinejad, however, would please much of the ruling regime in Iran, which already has the Iranian president in its sights.

Global Insider: Darfur Violence Continues Alongside Moribund Peace Process

By: The Editors | Trend Lines

In an email interview, Eric Reeves, a professor at Smith College and the author of “Compromising with Evil: An Archival History of Greater Sudan, 2007-2012,” reviewed the current state of violence and humanitarian efforts in Darfur.

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