Crisis Group: Afghanistan strategy failing from Nukes & Spooks by Warren Strobel

Crisis Group: Afghanistan strategy failing from Nukes & Spooks by Warren StrobelQuick post from Kabul as we await the WikiLeaks deluge...

The private International Crisis Group is out with a new report today that delivers a devastating judgement on the U.S./NATO strategy in Afghanistan and its chances for success.

The 12-page briefing, available here, disputes U.S. military commanders' assessment that the surge in U.S. troops and change in strategy has taken the initiative from the Taliban-led insurgency. "There is little proof that the operations have disrupted the insurgency's momentum or increased stability. The storyline does not match facts on the ground," the report says in its overview.

A "rush to the exit" by the international community is not the answer either, the report says, painting a grim picture of what might happen in that case: "Without outside support, the Karzai government would collapse, the Taliban would control much of the country and internal conflict would worsen, increasing the prospects of a return of the destructive civil war of the 1990s. Even a partial Taliban victory would provide succour and a refuge for Pakistani jihadi groups. That could intensify violence in Pakistan and increase attacks on India."