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RIYADH (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia is being drawn into efforts to reach a settlement to the Afghan war, despite its reluctance to become too embroiled with Islamist militants it once backed, diplomats and analysts say.
But they say Saudi Arabia would be unwilling to formally mediate in any peace talks. Like other countries involved, it wants Afghans to take the lead with outside players acting more as facilitators.
"Everybody has a very bad experience in their efforts to mediate between Afghans," said a senior diplomat in Kabul.
"It's very simple, if you try to mediate between them, both sides will push their luck and it will fall, believe me it will fall. The third party cannot hold it," he said.
Saudi Arabia has made no public comment on an appeal from Kabul to help mediate in talks with insurgents to try to bring an end to the nine-year war in Afghanistan.
But analysts and diplomats say the kingdom, which hosted secret talks with the Taliban in Mecca in 2008, is expected to come under pressure from the United States to help Washington find an exit strategy from an increasingly unpopular war.
Saudi Arabia enjoys considerable influence over the Muslim world both because of its authority as home to Islam's holiest sites and its hefty financial clout from oil earnings.
"There is a lot of pressure on the Saudis from the U.S. to help mediate in Afghanistan," said one western diplomat in Riyadh.
Official sources say that for the first time all the main parties involved, from the government to insurgents, from Washington to Pakistan, are seriously considering ways to reach a peace deal.
They have cited Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates as potential intermediaries, along with Pakistan, in what are as yet very preliminary "talks about talks."
"Saudi Arabia, UAE, Pakistan can make the right kind of noises saying: 'we support it' and I think that will make a difference," said the diplomat in Kabul.
One source with knowledge of talks about Afghanistan said Riyadh might be more willing to help than before since peace efforts now have the backing of Washington -- missing in 2008.
REPUTATION AT RISK
Saudi Arabia, along with Pakistan and the United States, backed Islamist insurgents fighting the Soviets in the 1980s, and later become one of only three countries to recognize the Taliban government that ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001.
But it is reluctant to become too closely associated with peace talks after working hard to shake off any public perception of links to Islamist militancy.
Fifteen of the 19 men involved in the September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States were from Saudi Arabia, and al Qaeda shares the kingdom's fundamentalist Wahhabi interpretation of Islam.
Diplomats say Western visitors have been lobbying the kingdom since last year to help mediate but it remains wary after the 2008 talks came to nothing.
"The Saudis might intermediate but they want to hear from the Afghan factions first in public that they are serious about talks this time," said a senior Western diplomat.
"They don't want to put their reputation at risk by backing a peace project that may not work."
Afghan diplomats say they hope Riyadh will get involved.
"Saudi Arabia has a major role and we hope in Afghanistan that Saudi plays an important role as it did in the past in Afghanistan and in other countries," said Said Anwarshah Ghaffari, Afghanistan's charge d'affaires in Riyadh.
"The kingdom has its weight in the Islamic world and we look at it as our older brother," he said.
Former intelligence chief Prince Turki al-Faisal, who has dealt with the Taliban before, last week cited reconciliation efforts in the past as a sign of Saudi support for Afghanistan, but he gave no hint about revisiting the talks.
Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal said in January the Taliban must deny sanctuary to al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden before the kingdom would act as mediator. Militants using the al Qaeda name began launching attacks on Saudi Arabia in 2003.
Riyadh froze its ties with the Taliban in 1998 over their refusal to hand over bin Laden who had been stripped of Saudi citizenship for activities against the ruling Al Saud family.
ALLY PAKISTAN, RIVAL IRAN
Diplomats and analysts say Saudi Arabia will be heavily influenced by the approach of Pakistan, with which it shares close military and intelligence cooperation.
"If Pakistan supports peace talks then the Saudis will help but they don't want to get too involved," said Haroun Mir, an Afghan analyst.
Pakistan is keen for a peace settlement in Afghanistan to end a war which it sees as increasing instability at home, though it is also anxious to curb the influence of rival India.
At the same time Sunni Saudi Arabia has to balance out the influence of Shi'ite Iran, its main rival in the Middle East and a powerful Afghan neighbor.
"I think Saudi Arabia should get more involved in Afghanistan. If we don't do it then others will," said prominent Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
But Saudi Arabia's rivalry with Iran could also mean that Tehran would look askance at any Saudi role in helping mediate.
Dubai based political analyst Theodore Karasik said it was significant that Saudi King Abdullah had spoken several times to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad over the past few weeks to discuss regional issues.
Asked whether Iran and Saudi Arabia could reach an understanding on Afghanistan, he said: "It's possible."
(Additional reporting by Jonathan Burch in Kabul and Asma Alsharif in Jeddah; Editing by Myra MacDonald)
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