Will Obama Try to Untie the Syrian-Iranian Alliance? Al-Sijill 02/19/09

Will Obama Try to Untie the Syrian-Iranian Alliance?
Al-Sijill 02/19/09

In spring 2002, a US diplomat made a strong, albeit off-the-record case for closer relations between Washington and Damascus. Syria's deeply rooted secularism, she told me, was a strong foundation for a strategic relationship that could greatly enhance Washington's position in the Middle East.



"We shouldn't be antagonizing the Syrian people," the diplomat said. "This country is pluralist in nature. We used to have a saying in Saudi Arabia about how America had shared interests with the Saudis but different values. Here we have shared values but different interests. This society is the one we want to work with."

It was a rhetorical plea, of course. The Second Intifada was less than eight months old and Syrian President Hafez Al Assad had been dead for nearly a year. A week earlier, Colin Powell, the then-US Secretary of State had called for an end to Israel's siege on Palestinian cities and for Palestinian extremists to stop their suicide attacks on Israelis. A few days later, he eased off the Israelis, reaffirming Washington's long-standing support of the Jewish state's right to protect itself.



Today, US-Syrian relations are at an all-time low, just another deficit in Barack Obama's dubious presidential inheritance. The US ambassador to Damascus, recalled after the 2005 killing of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, has yet to be replaced. In the fall, after a US raid on Syrian targets by Iraq-based gunships, Damascus shut down the American School and the US embassy's language center. Repairing the relationship will be as challenging as it is urgent, so it is refreshing to see Democratic leaders in Washington taking tentative steps to do just that.



Last week, the State Department confirmed it would allow Boeing to export spare parts to Syria, a rare exemption to the sanctions regime imposed on the country by the Bush administration. The move follows a recent visit to Damascus by House of Representative Speaker Nancy Pelosi, where she met with President Bashir Al Assad. John Kerry, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and a proponent of closer US-Syrian ties, is due to arrive in Damascus this week. Howard Berman, who chairs the House Foreign Affairs Committee, is also expected to visit Syria soon.



This diplomatic pilgrimage, which is being coordinated with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, suggests a revival of the rigorous US-Syria track nurtured by James Baker when he was the top American diplomat under the sage George H.W. Bush. Israel's chilling lurch rightward and the Palestinian Authority's ongoing power struggle will make progress on the Israel-Palestine front all but impossible until the second half the Obama administration. Even if President Obama can establish some breathing room by stabilizing the economy within a year – a big "if" – he'll then have mid-term elections to consider. Already, leading Republicans like Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, the ranking Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, are firing warning shots across the White House bow about "aiding an unrepentant regime." Yawn.



For anyone prepared to do something about America's hapless position in the Middle East, however, Syria is the key. Six years ago, an isolated Damascus appeared to be on the brink of an economic crisis and Bush administration officials were talking gleefully about Mr. Assad as the next Baathist leader in the Pentagon's cross-hairs. The fall of Saddam Hussein and the end of the United Nations-led oil-for-food program deprived Syria of subsidized Iraqi petroleum. The Hariri killing threatened to deepen Damascus's isolation and its subsequent withdrawal from Lebanon denied it a major source of black market funding.



Now, Syria is an important regional player. Its non-oil gross domestic product has grown by 34 percent since 2004 thanks to aggressive deregulation, and it is growing closer to the European Union commercially. Syrian proxies Hezbollah and Hamas have survived bloody wars with Israel with their prestige intact. With the leaders of Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the emirates discredited on the Arab street by their initial support of Fatah during Israel's onslaught against Hamas, Mr. Assad has emerged as the authentic Arab voice of resistance against Israel's occupation of the West Bank and its incarceration of Gaza.



Then there is Iran. Having jousted during the Democratic primary about the virtue of talking with Tehran, both Mr. Obama and Ms. Clinton are ready to deal directly with Iran, although not before elections in June. A workmanlike dialogue between the US and Syria will give Iranian voters – perhaps even supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – something to think about. While Mr. Khamenei supports hardline presidential incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, he has done nothing to stop moderate challenger and ex-president Mohammad Khatami. Assuming Mr. Khamenei believes he has something to gain from stable relations with the Great Satan – certainly a lot of Iranian merchants and businessmen do; unlike Syria, the Iranian economy is a mess – he'd have an easier time of it with a reformer like Mr. Khatami at the helm. If Mr. Obama can woo Damascus away from its pas de deux with Tehran while cajoling Russia and China to cooperate as good-faith negotiators, an acceptable compromise over Iran's nuclear ambitions might actually be attainable. (Mrs. Clinton's conciliatory remarks about China prior to her departure for Asia last week were particularly encouraging.)



Mr. Obama, whose energies have been consumed almost exclusively by the economic crisis, has had a tough first month in office. It will take time before the contours of his Middle East strategy are fully formed. Though an opening with Syria appears likely, there are obstacles ahead beyond the predictable attacks from the pro-Israel right wing. He must be sensitive to the concerns of Lebanon that its hard-won independence from Damascus will not become a bargaining chip in talks with Mr. Assad, for example. But the new president clearly has an instinct for putting his adversaries on the defensive – not with military might but with something far more effective: charm.